Two of college football’s most storied programs meet in Miami at the Orange Bowl, as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are small favorites over the Penn State Nittany Lions.
What can we expect from a player prop perspective from this first of two College Football Playoff (CFP) semi-final matchups?
Read on for our top three player prop bets and picks from Thursday’s Orange Bowl.
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Best College Football Player Prop Bets & Picks: Orange Bowl
Let’s dive into our top college football player prop bet picks for this Thursday’s Orange Bowl action.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Riley Leonard Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Riley Leonard torched Georgia’s defense for 80 rushing yards. He has now gone over this projected total in two of the last three games. However, the Bulldogs’ defense was susceptible to running quarterbacks all season, so I am not buying into this inflated line for this matchup against Penn State.
Against the most mobile quarterbacks it faced this season, Georgia allowed the following rushing stat lines:
- 110 yards to Georgia Tech’s Haynes King
- 50 yards to UMass’ AJ Haston (on just three attempts)
- 50 yards to Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart
- 117 yards to Alabama’s Jalen Milroe
Meanwhile, Penn State held mobile quarterbacks like Ohio State’s Will Howard, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and SMU’s Kevin Jennings to 24, 17 and -25 rushing yards, respectively. The last rushing total serves as a nice reminder that sack yardage counts against a quarterback’s rushing total and could impact Leonard if the Nittany Lions get to him on dropbacks.
Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
Notre Dame loves to play man coverage as its base defense more often than zone, and arguably no player (not just tight end) is more of a mismatch in the country than Penn State’s Tyler Warren.
The Fighting Irish do not necessarily have the linebacking corps to match up with Warren’s size or speed, and the most logical move for Marcus Freeman is to bring Xavier Watts up from the safety spot to defend the All-American tight end.
However, Watts went to the medical tent late in the game against Georgia with a shoulder injury. Freeman may not want to use Watts in man coverage often because it leaves the team susceptible on the back end.
Warren was named the Offensive MVP of the Fiesta Bowl after catching six passes for 63 yards and two touchdowns. His 13-yard touchdown reception was his 98th catch of the season, which broke the Penn State single-season record previously held by Allen Robinson (97 in 2013).
Warren has at least one touchdown in two of the last four games and three of the last six. His anytime touchdown odds are certainly worth a play at this 51.22% implied probability.
Jeremiyah Love Under 47.5 rushing yards (-114)
Just how healthy is Jeremiyah Love, after he reportedly finished the Georgia game with a brace on his injured knee? If this were a regular season game, we might be talking about Love getting a much-needed week off, especially since he was not 100% after the Indiana game.
Love having the same projected rushing total as Riley Leonard suggests he is going to defer a ton of carries to Jadarian Price, who already had 110 carries to Love’s 148 this season.
Even if Love were completely healthy, he would likely find it difficult sledding against a Penn State rush defense that allows 101 rush yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush while giving up a total of just eight rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Nittany Lions had a fantastic game plan in holding Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry. I look for them to similarly stack the box and dare Leonard to beat them with his arm.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.