College Football Week 13 Early Picks & Predictions (2025)

The 2025 college football season is drawing to a close, so the stakes to qualify for the second edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff become even bigger in Week 13. It’s a relatively lighter slate than previous weeks, headlined by No. 17 USC traveling to Eugene to face No. 9 Oregon at 3:30 p.m. ET.

We’re coming off a perfect 3-0 result from last week’s College Football Week 12 Early Picks & Predictions. Oklahoma and Alabama went under 45.5, Iowa covered +6.5 during its five-point road loss to USC, and Georgia routed Texas to easily cover -6.0.

Let’s look ahead to some of the biggest Week 13 games and identify early line movement to find the best bet in three different top-25 matchups. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for additional betting analysis and free picks.

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College Football Week 13 Picks & Early Line Movement

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Louisville (20) vs. SMU 

We’re going to dive into this ACC matchup between No. 20 Louisville on the road against SMU. The Mustangs are unranked but sit 7-3 coming out of a Week 12 bye.

The Cardinals just suffered a second straight home loss in Week 12. Louisville’s 20-19 loss to Clemson was largely due to the absence of explosive plays, finishing with less than 220 passing yards for the fourth straight game.

SMU’s defense is built well, ranked 32nd in opponent points scored per game. The Mustangs opened as a -1.5 point home favorite but have since ballooned to -3.0 on the point spread. Meanwhile, the point total has crept down from 53.5 to 52.5.

SMU is 7-3 on point total unders in 2025. Louisville’s inability to mount quick scoring drives is another factor that points toward betting the point total at under 52.5. We’re through a key number of 52 here, so let’s bet this line before it has a chance to dip any further.

Pick: Under 52.5 (-108)

USC (17) vs. Oregon (8)

College GameDay heads to Eugene, Oregon to attend a top-20 Big Ten matchup featuring No. 17 USC at No. 9 Oregon. The Ducks just shut down Minnesota in Week 12, with QB Dante Moore throwing for 27-of-30 for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

USC held on against a stout Iowa defense in Week 12. The Trojans erased a 21-10 halftime deficit by shutting out the Hawkeyes in the second half, as QB Jayden Maiava connected with top wideout Makai Lemon for the go-ahead score.

Since opening at -7.5, Oregon has moved to -9.5 on the point spread. The point total has not wavered from its initial number of 59.5. Oddsmakers expect a back-and-forth shootout between these former PAC 12 programs.

In 2025, each of these teams is 5-5 on point totals. Oregon is 6-4 ATS, compared to USC sitting at 5-5 ATS. USC’s lone matchup as an underdog against Notre Dame lead to their second loss of the season. Both of the Trojans’ losses have been on the road, losing by two points to Illinois and 10 points to the Fighting Irish.

Oregon’s a bit of an enigma. They barely made it through Wisconsin, grinded out an ugly win against Iowa, then pounded Minnesota.

USC head coach Lincoln Riley is one of the best offensive playcallers in the FBS, so expect him to exploit Oregon’s defense, despite holding opponents to 3.2 YPC and a 50 percent completion rate this season.

USC catching +9.5 feels like too many points. Let’s bet on the Trojans to play a tight game at Autzen Stadium with their top-10 scoring offense to cover +9.5 against Oregon in Week 13.

Pick: USC +9.5 (-112)

BYU (12) vs. Cincinnati (25)

The other marquee game in the Week 13 college football slate features No. 12 BYU on the road against No. 25 Cincinnati. The Bearcats have suffered back-to-back losses following a seven-game winning streak, including a 30-24 loss at home to Arizona in Week 12.

BYU bounced back from a 29-7 loss to No. 6 Texas Tech in Week 11 with a dominant 44-13 win at home over TCU. Now, these ranked Big 12 opponents face off at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati for a prime-time tilt.

BYU opened as a -1.5 point favorite. Now, they sit at -2.5, meaning we’re getting Cincinnati as a home underdog. The point total has also climbed from 53.5 to 54.5.

The Bearcats’ offense has stalled, logging 38 total points across its last two games against Utah and Arizona. BYU’s defense won’t let up, ranked 14th in the nation for points allowed per game.

Cincinnati’s defense has been bad against the run, allowing 4.0 YPC or more in every Big 12 matchup. Arizona and Utah both hung over 470 yards of offense on the Bearcats, forcing QB Brendan Sorsby into a negative game script.

BYU’s run-centric scheme is going to be too much for Cincinnati to overcome. The Cougars control time of possession, finish drives with touchdowns, and can limit opponents with a stingy pass defense.

Let’s lay -2.5 on BYU to win by a field goal or more as it looks to improve its seeding for the upcoming College Football Playoff.

Pick: BYU -2.5 (-110)