College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/29)

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 9 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s games.

And check out the rest of our game previews for Week 9:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 9 Best Bets >>

College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Tennessee vs. Kentucky

The Over in this game is my favorite play of the week. Tennessee has put up the most points that the defense they face has given up in every single game they've played. Tennessee has put up 52 on Alabama, a defense that hadn't allowed more than 26 points to anyone else, and 40 on LSU, who had previously given up no more than 23 (35 the high since against Florida). Tennesse is the only team averaging over 50 PPG in the country, is well-balanced with the No. 2 passing and No. 24 rushing offenses and is top 20 in pace of play. Tennessee is also pretty rough on defense, giving up an average of 30.5 PPG to P5 opponents, and is 130th against the pass, giving up and average of 329.7 yards per game. The rushing defense is good but it's because teams need to play catch-up after Tennessee has run up the score.

Kentucky isn't a joke, and I think the betting public agrees with that at least early in the week, as the majority of cash has been placed on the Wildcats. Kentucky has been strong on defense. They have held every opponent to under 25 points and are currently ninth in scoring defense, 14th against the pass and 28th against the run. Kentucky has also had the ball way more than their opponents, holding the ball on average for just over 34 minutes per game. The narrative for an under play is also fueled by the Wildcats offense's slow pace, 104th in the nation, at 66.3 plays per game.

The 'coup de grace' for the betting Kentucky and the under is probably that they are coming off a bye week AND this is a potential look-ahead spot for Tennessee with them facing Georgia next week. I don't think Tennessee can afford to look ahead to anyone, and they should know that. The Vols haven't been ranked inside the top 10 this late in the season since 2001, and HC Josh Heupel has navigated through long winning streaks in the past at UCF. Tennessee has done all the scoring while ranking 121st in time of possession, so it's not like they need to possess the ball for a long time to put up points.

In general, the great offensive team will break the great defensive team. The rules are made for offenses to score, and from the high school level on up, the best players are placed on offense. We saw this exact scenario play out last week with Ohio State drubbing Iowa. I am particularly interested to see Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt, who leads the nation in receiving TDs, against this secondary. Hyatt mainly plays out of the slot, so freshman Kentucky saftey Alex Afari will have his hands full. That matchup could be the main deciding factor in this game. I think Tennessee is once again going to leave as the top-scoring opponent as they have against every defense they have faced. Once Tennesse takes the lead, they can take advantage on defense, putting pressure on a line that has already allowed 26 sacks (120th in the country). Tennessee wins this one big on the back of the best offense in the country.

The pick: Tennessee (-12.5) & OVER 63.5

Scott Bogman

Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss u55.5

Outside of ECU's upset of UCF, our best call last week was coupling LSU as a short home 'fav against Mississippi with the under.

The handicap of the side in this game proved tricky - we trust Ole Miss more, but they're in a deflation spot whereas A&M returns home after four-straight games away from Kyle Field - so we're going to pass on that and return to well with an under on a Rebels game.

Mississippi HC Lane Kiffin is known for breakneck offensive pace and high-scoring offenses. This year's team is still running hypo-tempo - No. 1 in the nation - but it is no longer a terrifying unit to defend.

Mostly because QB Jaxson Dart, a USC transfer, has underwhelmed. Dart has already thrown two more interceptions than he did last year as a true freshman at USC (in only 10 more attempts).

And while Dart threw only one interception in September against Ole Miss' cupcake non-conference schedule, he's thrown at least one in all four SEC games this month (five total). In the games against Kentucky, Auburn, and LSU, Dart completed a meager 51.5% of his passes while averaging 238.6 passing YPG.

Perhaps because of this, Ole Miss has swung to a run-heavy ethos. Only five non-option teams in the nation hand the ball off at a higher percentage than the Rebels. A&M's pass defense is awesome, further incentivizing Kiffin to keep the ball on the ground (and keep the clock running) on Saturday.

A&M's possessions will normalize the game's pace. The Aggies rank only No. 124 in adjusted pace, and they're incentivized to go even slower on Saturday to give their defense longer breaks between Ole Miss' possessions.

The Aggies will either be starting limited veteran QB Haynes King or raw true freshman QB Connor Wiegman behind center. A&M's quarterback issues and dearth of receiving talent following OW Ainas Smith's season-ending injury have neutered the aerial game. A&M's gameplan will be getting undersized but explosive RB Devon Achane the ball as much as possible. After every play, they'll huddle up and bleed the play clock for all it's worth.

I see a pass-averse, ground-heavy chessmatch coming between a pair of teams that have combined to go under point totals by an average of 7.5 PPG this season.

The pick: A&M-Mississippi UNDER 55.5

Thor Nystrom

Illinois vs. Nebraska

I may have been against the public on Tennessee and the Over play in that game, but for the ASU game and this game, I'm adding to the public cause! Early in the week the overwhelming amount of cash has been on the Under in this Big-10 matchup and I agree wholeheartedly! Illinois is 2-4-1 playing towards an Over this season, has not had a total higher than 44 in any game they have played this season and will most likely control this game from start to finish.

Nebraska is coming off a bye (as is Illinois) and looked good in a six-point loss to Purdue two weeks ago, as they put up 37 points, which was a season-high for them against a P5 opponent. Nebraska is averaging just under 30 PPG, coming mainly from a top-40 passing offense and transfer QB Casey Thompson. Too bad Illinois is the No. 1 scoring defense and No. 2 passing and rushing defense in the nation. If we move over to PFF grades, Illinois is third against the pass and fifth overall. This is simply not a good matchup for Nebraska offensively.

The cherry on top of the lopsided matchup is it's just as bad on the other side of the ball for Nebraska, if not worse. Illinois is averaging just under 200 rushing yards per game, and Nebraska's run defense is 115th in the country, allowing just over 190 yards per game. Illinois RB Chase Brown (+5000 to win the Heisman) is leading the nation in rushing yards and should add a big chunk to that total here. Nebraska and Illinois are only separated by one turnover lost, but Illinois is +4 while Nebraska is -3. Anyway it's sliced, this is not a good matchup for the Huskers. Offense over defense if they are equal, but these teams are not on the same level. I think this will be a one-sided Illinois win, and as I stated when the breakdown began, Illinois hasn't had a game go over 44 total points, and they have played worse teams than Nebraska. Illini win a 31-17 type of game that has just enough to thread the needle on laying the points and keeping our Under!

The pick: Illinois (-7.5) AND UNDER 50.5

Scott Bogman

Louisville vs. Wake Forest o63

Can I interest you in the over of a game that will be played at ludicrous-speed* tempo between a pair of offenses that consistently generate explosive plays teeing off on leaky defenses that consistently get gouged for them?

*Shoutout to anyone that recognized this as a Space Balls joke.

The Cardinals' points figure to come off home runs in both the run and passing games. On the other side, Wake Forest will generate its own fair share of explosive plays, but Louisville will have the added impediment of not being able to keep Wake Forest's hyper-efficient offense off schedule.

This is one of only five games on the card this weekend between a top-20 tempo team (Wake Forest) against a top-50 tempo opponent (Louisville). There will be opportunities galore in a game that profiles to be competitive throughout - Wake -4 spread - and both offenses match up well to take advantage through explosive gains if nothing else.

The pick: Louisville-WF OVER 63

Thor Nystrom

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.