Introducing the Week 10 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 10 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Colts vs. Bills.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 10 Betting Primer>>
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Sides:
- The Bills have won 13 of their last 16 games.
- The Bills have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games against AFC opponents.
- The Buffalo Bills are 17-6 as a favorite since the start of last season and 11-12 ATS.
- Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 24 games.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
- The Bills have won their last 13 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Bills are 12-2 and 7-7 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
- Bills are 7-6- ATS as road favorites.
- The Bills have won eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents
- The favorites have won 18 of the Colts' last 21 games.
- The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season and 3% ATS as an underdog (2-4 overall).
- The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
- The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
- The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
- The Colts have lost five of their last six road games.
Totals:
- Each of the Bills’ last seven home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 4-0 toward the over this season.
- Six of the Bills’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Bills’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line. (15 of their last 21 road games)
- Seven of the Bills’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the last nine Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Colts' last 12 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Only thrice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (nine starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
- With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 1-4 toward the over this season (four straight unders).
- With Joe Flacco, 2-2 O/U (last two games going under).
- The Colts are 4-0 toward the under in their last four games.
Overall:
Trap game for the Buffalo Bills? Seems like the market is pricing it in. In Week 11, Buffalo will host the KC Chiefs for AFC supremacy. All they need to do is beat a Joe Flacco-led Colts team on the road after an abysmal performance against the Vikings last Sunday night.
The line is right around four points, depending on what side you want to take.
After initially opening the week heavy on Buffalo, I might be changing my tune. As bad as the Colts’ offense was in Week 9, I think that's still saying much more about the Vikings’ defense.
And when you look at how Miami moved the ball on Buffalo, it was with their rushing attack.
Buffalo's run defense ranks 26th in yards per carry faced this season.
And Buffalo plays down to their competition all the time. The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Colts have been great underdogs this season, even if they don't win outright.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Colts have lost each of their last 10 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points). This season, they are 5-1 ATS as underdogs in that point spread range from +2 to +5.0 points.
All this team does is play guys tightly. According to Next Gen Stats, the 2024 Colts are the 4th team in NFL history to have each of their first nine games decided by one possession.
The trends also suggest that we might see an under at play here as well. No Bills' road game has exceeded 45 points all season.
If the Colts can run the football effectively, I think they can keep this game much closer. The Colts defense has also gotten better with the return of defensive lineman, DeForest Buckner.
The Colts’ defense has generated a 44.4% pressure rate with Buckner on the field this season, compared to a 30.4% pressure rate with Buckner off the field.
Grover Stewart has generated a 14.8% pressure rate and faced a 41.0% double team rate in weeks with Bucker healthy (Weeks 1,8 and 9), compared to just a 1.9% pressure rate and a 50.5% double team rate with Buckner injured or inactive (Weeks 2-7).
Their defense has also been solid, generating turnovers (7th in takeaways), which should help level the field with the QB discrepancy.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills are 7-0 when Josh Allen has had a passer rating above 95.0 this season, and 0-2 when Allen has had a passer rating below 95.0.
The Colts have allowed a 95.0+ passer rating to the opposing starting QB in 7 of 9 games (2-5 record in such games).
Props:
The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season. Jonathan Taylor has at least three catches in his two games played with Flacco this season. However, his receptions prop has moved up top 3.5 as a result. Therefore, I am going to opt for the over on Taylor's receiving yardage instead given his overall middling usage as a receiver in the Colts offense.
He has gone for 20 receiving yards in over half of his games this season.
My Picks:
- Under 48
- Colts +4
- Jonathan Taylor OVER 19.5 receiving yards
