Commanders vs. Patriots: NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Commanders vs. Patriots.

NFL Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Patriots

New England Patriots (-3) vs. Washington Football Team

The Commanders defense is not good. And they just traded away their two best pass-rushers between Montez Sweat and Chase Young before the trade deadline. This one could get ugly for the nation's capital, even against a bad Patriots offense at home. Because the Pats have increased their offensive output dramatically over the last few weeks. Cole Strange, Mike Onwenu and rookie Demario Douglas were all healthy for the second straight week.

Their offense remains strong in the red zone - in the cases that they can get there. 7^th in red-zone conversion rate. We saw a season-high offensive performance against an injured-plagued Bills unit at home a few weeks ago, so I like the Pats offense in this spot. Outside the complete dud the Patriots played versus the Saints a few weeks back, all 3 of their best offensive games (points/yards) have been at home. Two straight games that have gone OVER the total in back-to-back weeks.

Mac Jones is horrible as an underdog, but performs much better as a favorite. 12-8-1 per the Action Network.

When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 3 games they have covered, 0 turnovers on offense.

The Patriots defense has generated 4 turnovers in their last two games after generating 2 through their first 5 games.

However, the Pats' defense has allowed nearly 28 points per game in their last four contests. That looks like a potential spot where Sam Howell can take advantage. But he's been super matchup-dependent. Great versus the Eagles (twice) and Broncos. But bad versus the likes of the Bills, Bears, and Giants.

And it's been an up-and-down trend with Howell unable to post back-to-back strong outings. Turnovers will ultimately decide his fate, and the fact that he is tied for league-lead in turnover-worthy plays the last two weeks has me very concerned about his prospects against the Patriots. Even if they can score points, the sacks/turnovers will set Washington back too much against the spread.

Especially if they can hit on the big plays from OUTSIDE the red zone. Washington scored three TDs from outside the 20-yard line versus the Eagles.

Making my homer pick with the Patriots at -3.5 and leaning toward the second straight OVER. Hit the over pick last week against Miami. Given how turnover-worthy prone BOTH quarterbacks are, we could easily see some defensive TDs and short fields to aid in total scoring. Both rank top-5 in terms of points allowed to opposing defenses and above average in red-zone trips granted on defense.

As bad as the Patriots have been, their average total game points scored has been 41 points. The Commanders is nearly 50 points. Sneaky shootout on deck.

And that means we are in for some player prop overs.

Look at Washington Commanders No. 2 WR, Jahan Dotson. The Patriots have stifled No. 1 WRs this season, but have allowed No. 2 WRs to run wild. 1st in DVOA versus No. 1s, but 29th in DVOA versus No. 2s. 6th in targets and yards allowed to No. 2 WRs. Dotson -fresh off back-to-back games with 5-plus catches and 8-plus targets – should be set up in a good spot here. Curtis Samuel will likely miss the game with a toe injury, and his absence the last two weeks has influenced Dotson’s spike in production.

My Picks:

Over 40.5
Patriots -3.5

My Props:

Jahan Dotson over 3.5 receptions (-160 DraftKings Sportsbook)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.