Commanders vs. Rams: NFL Week 15 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Commanders vs. Rams.

NFL Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Rams

Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have lost each of their last four games. But the Commanders have also covered the spread in five of their last six games as road underdogs. 62% ATS as an underdog overall. The Rams are 67% ATS as a favorite.

The Rams have gone just 6-5-2 ATS this season. Their 6 covers? Seattle twice, Arizona twice and against Joe Flacco and the Ravens last week. Last week was impressive. But their defense was gashed again. Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season.

Only thrice (Both vs Seattle and Arizona) have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

A super pass-heavy offense lends itself to covering large spreads. And the Rams run mostly zone coverage, which Sam Howell has been much better against this season than man coverage. The Rams also give up a fair share of explosive passing plays - 8.7% – akin to the likes of the Chargers, Colts and Steelers leaky secondaries.

Also hate to beat a dead horse here, but the Commanders' covering always goes back to turnovers.

When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 18 offensive turnovers. In the 5 games they have covered, just 3 turnovers on offense.

The Rams rank 31^st in takeaways on defense this season. As always is the move in shootouts - take the underdog with the points. I like that Washington is also coming off a bye week.

For the massive total...

Each of the Commanders' last four games has gone OVER the total points line. The Rams are 5-3 toward the under their last 8 games.

Should be noted that if Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under. When they allow 20 points on defense - 8-1 toward the OVER. What are the Rams' odds of scoring over 19.5 points? -750. Aka an implied probability of 88%.

Take the over. Washington's defense can't stop anyone. And their offense will do whatever it takes to crawl back and try to keep pace.

These teams averaged 47.5 points this season. So if you don't want to risk it falling just short of 50.5, just take the Commanders +6.5.

The player props are mostly all-overs. Correlate them to your heart’s desire. Matthew Stafford’s passing yards and Puka Nacua’s receiving yards. But fade Demarcus Robinson into oblivion. It took him 10 targets last week to catch 3 passes.

As for the Commanders’ offense, buy the dip on Terry McLaurin. He has caught at least four passes in all but 2 games this season. He caught zero the last time Washington played. That won’t happen two weeks in a row.

Note that 9 of the 10 most comparable players to McLaurin have gone OVER their receptions prop the last time they faced the Rams defense. LA is allowing the 8th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season. This week, Sam Howell acknowledged the offense has not done enough to get McLaurin the ball. Squeaky wheel get the grease.

My Picks:

Commanders +6.5
Over 50.5

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.