Cowboys vs. Bills: NFL Week 15 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Cowboys vs. Bills.

NFL Betting Primer: Cowboys vs. Bills

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are 0-2 as an underdog this season. They have been nearly untouchable at home this season, but have been more vulnerable on the road. 3-3 ATS on the road this season compared to 7-1 ATS at home. Keep in mind, that the overall favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Cowboys' last 14 games.

The Buffalo Bills are 5-4 as a favorite this season. Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 9 games.

They were a mess entering Week 11 - even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics - but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad. But other than that, it's been disappointment after disappointment until last week's big road win over the Chiefs.

They have also been a team - similar to Dallas - that has played much better at home. Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents' doors off this season. Particularly at home where they are 5-1 and 3-3 ATS (including 4 straight unders).

And despite all their injuries on defense, they have been rock solid in limiting chunk passing plays, ranking 7^th in the lowest explosive pass play rate faced. Their defense is allowing the league's lowest average depth of target.

This is potentially problematic for the Cowboys’ passing game which thrives on generating chunk pass gains.

Defensively for Dallas, they play the third-most amount of man coverage in the NFL. Not ideal for a mobile QB like Josh Allen. Allen against man coverage: No. 1 in fantasy points scored and 1^st in TD passes (9).

Stefon Diggs has a 30% target share against man coverage this season with 8 TDs. Gabe Davis has 6 TDs vs man coverage this season with a 13.6 aDOT.

As for the bloated total at 50.5.

These teams have averaged 48 points scored on average this season.

Ten of the Bills' last 12 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line. But in this game, they are home favorites.

Buffalo is 2-4 toward the under at home this season including 4 straight unders hitting in their last four home games. Overall, five of the Bills’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Meanwhile, 7 of the Cowboys' last 9 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 6 of 7 games through the air. Dallas has played 8 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense. 20-plus points in all games.

But the games that didn't go over? 2 of the 4 road games Dallas has played over that stretch.

I was shocked when the Bills opened as 1.5-2.5-point favorites against a red-hot Cowboys unit. I felt like taking Dallas +2.5 was too easy of a bet to make. But whenever I have been strongly on the side where I say to myself "why is this team even favored at all" I get burned.

There's a reason why Buffalo is the 1.5-point favorite in this game, as I have outlined so far. Their bad luck is starting to regress more in their favor, and I think that will aid them in another tight back-and-forth contest.

I also prefer the under with such a high game total.

As for props...

Only 3 QBs that have faced Dallas have thrown for more than 230 passing yards this season. 7 of the last 10 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. More fuel to backing the overall under in this game if Allen's passing yards aren't out of control.

Dawson Knox received 3 targets in Week 14, effectively utilizing them with notable yardage. 3 for 36 yards. He played 47% of the snaps in his first game back.

That hurt No. 3 WR Khalil Shakir, who saw his snaps drop to 61%. Shakir has only played one game this season with Knox active, where he has gone over 2.5 receptions.

Dallas is also allowing the 6th-fewest receiving yards and 6th-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season.

I love the over on Tony Pollard's rushing yards on the Cowboys’ offense. He has been on a heater after a slow start to the season. He's gone OVER 51.5 rushing yards in 5 straight games and for 51-plus in 7 straight games. The Bills run defense is allowed the league's 3^rd-highest explosive run rate (12.8%).

My Picks:

Bills -1.5
Under 50.5

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.