Cowboys vs. Chargers: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Cowboys vs. Chargers.

NFL Betting Primer: Cowboys vs. Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers (LAC 2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Monday night football is all about the narrative street. The Chargers, led by former Cowboys OC, Kellen Moore, take on Dallas after their big prime-time beatdown. The Chargers are 2.5-point “home dogs” although we know the Chargers don’t really have much of an actual home-field advantage. Expect to see plenty of Cowboys jerseys in the stands.

But what will we get from Dallas? A team that, through five weeks, still doesn’t have much of an identity. They blew out the Giants, Jets and Patriots inferior offenses while losing at home in disastrous fashion versus the Arizona Cardinals. Then there’s last week’s demolition against the 49ers.

Still, Dallas should be 4-1 at worst. And their defense is a big part of that, as their offense continues to struggle mightily in the red zone. And the Chargers defense has been solid in that area of the field. 10^th in RZ defense. However, they are facing the 2^nd-most red-zone visits per game.

At the end of the day, Dallas wants to run the football and play defense. A winning formula to beat inferior teams by field goals. In a three-point spread, this method works. Especially given that the Chargers are not a formidable run defense and Dallas’ OL is at full strength.

Dallas’ offense is far from perfect, but they still are the No. 3 offense on third downs and are averaging 21-plus points strictly on offense with mostly field goals.

Even with the Chargers coming off the bye week, I hardly think they will be at any significant advantage with Brandon Stanley leading the team. The Chargers are 2-2 ATS this year, but it’s been by razor-thin margins.

Think Dallas bounces back here with the FG win. They have been great at kicking FGs and no team loses more games due to heat-breaking kicks than the Chargers.

Dallas is 3-2 toward the under this year, whereas LA is 2-2. Considering the bloated total at 50.5 I am strongly leading toward the under.

I also need to include this bet mentioned by Joe Raineri on the Week 6 Best Bets BettingPros podcast. He loves the Chargers 1^st half money line, followed by a Dallas ML in the second half. Justin Herbert has been one of the most profitable QBs to bet on in the first halves of games, and the least in the second halves. LA is 3-1 on the first half ML this season.

LA’s been a top-scoring unit in the first half over the last three seasons. Ask any Chargers fan about how every week is followed by a gut-wrenching finish in the 4^th quarter. LA in the 2^nd half is allowing 13.5 points per game (26^th) this season.

My favorite prop in this game? Joshua Palmer UNDER 52.5 receiving yards. Here’s the scoop. The Cowboys are allowing the fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs this season. 3^rd-fewest receiving yards allowed overall to WRs with the 2^nd-lowest catch rate.

In Week 4, Palmer led the team with 8 targets, finishing with 3 catches for 77 yards. Again, the final stat line is majorly boosted by the last-minute 51-yard catch, so Palmer busted for essentially 59 minutes. Keep that in mind as Austin Ekeler‘s return will likely lower Palmer’s target share as will an increased workload for rookie Quentin Johnston.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me projecting Palmer for just 41.2 receiving yards – more than 10 yards under his listed prop.

My Picks:

Cowboys -2 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 50.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chargers 1^st half ML (+106 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

Joshua Palmer under 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.