This Week 11 matchup is an interesting one. The Detroit Lions are 0-8-1, and the Cleveland Browns are like a roller coaster ride with how up and down they are. The Browns beat a good Bengals team 41-16, but then the next week lost to a middle-of-the-pack Patriots team 45-7. That makes this one hard to read, but there is potential value in betting on this game. All bettors need to do is take advantage of the volatility of both teams. There will be a risk in betting on this game. That means it is best to lower the number of units you bet. Let us look into this wild matchup for the best bet.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Opening Lines: Cleveland Browns -10, Total 47
- Current Lines: Cleveland Browns -11.5, Total 43
The Detroit Lions have been a bad football team this year. Starting 0-8-1, they are currently the worst team in the NFL. Their defense is giving up 29 points per game, and the offense is struggling just as much. Offensively, the Lions have found the endzone sixteen times this season. That is the second-lowest amount of times any team has found the endzone in the NFL. That makes sense because they are also the second lowest-scoring team in the NFL, averaging sixteen points per game. The biggest reason for their lackluster offense has been the lack of wide receivers. The Lion’s top two receivers are a running back and a tight end. Their best wide receiver has 363 yards through nine games. With no one to throw the ball to, the Lions have struggled to get anything going on offense. Unless this changes, expect the Lions to have a low-scoring game.
The Cleveland Browns have been up and down lately. They have Nick Chubb back this week, and that is critical for this run-heavy offense. The Browns are averaging 23.1 points per game. They will try to control the clock with how many injuries they have. Baker Mayfield is hurt, Jarvis Landry has sat out this week with a knee injury, and Donovan Peoples-Jones is injured. That means the Browns offense will lean on the run game more than ever and limit both teams’ opportunities to score points. This game is going to be low-scoring.
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The line for total points is moving heavily toward the under. That means there is not much value left in betting the Under. The line for the Lions to cover is getting bigger, and the value is increasing. With the Lions’ lackluster offense and the Browns’ injuries on the offensive side of the ball, there is value in taking the Lions to cover. Bettors should always look at the way the betting lines are moving before placing a bet. The betting value on the Lions to cover is there. I would lower the number of units bet due to the rollercoaster that the Browns are riding. Otherwise, take the value this weekend.
Pick: Detriot Lions +13 (-125)
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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.