Introducing the Week 3 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 3 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Dolphins vs. Seahawks.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 3 Betting Primer>>
Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks
Sides:
- In each of the Seahawks' last eight games, their opponents have scored first.
- Seattle is 9-2 as a favorite in the last 11 games.
- The favorites have won 15 of the Seahawks' last 17 games.
- Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games played (3-6-1 over the last ten games).
- The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games as favorites.
- The Seahawks are 3-5-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last nine games.
- The Dolphins have lost four of their last five games.
- Miami has failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
- Miami was below 20 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season, 1-5 overall in 2023.
- Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted back to their old ways in Week's loss versus the Buffalo Bills.
- The Dolphins have lost each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
Totals:
- Four of the Seahawks' last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Dolphins’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Dolphins' last 10 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
The Seahawks are 0-1-1 ATS to start the 2024 season. They didn't cover at home against Bo Nix and failed to cover the 3-point spread versus the Patriots in their OT road victory in Week 2. They will head back home to face the Miami Dolphins, who are coming off additional rest because they played last Thursday night.
Tua Tagovailoa's concussion and absence is a major headline of this game, but tackle Terron Armstead's potential absence should not be overlooked.
However, I'm firmly off Seattle has heavy home favorites, coming off an OT victory. Their track record has been so bad covering as home favorites. Geno Smith is just 40% ATS as a favorite.
So, it's just a matter of taking the Dolphins with the points or with the straight-road upset. The line has moved heavily in Miami's direction after it was available at one point: MIA +6.5. I'll follow the line movement but go a step further: The Dolphins with the upset.
Again, Miami has traditionally been bad against the great teams. But are the 2024 Seahawks truly great after they went 0-2 ATS against the Broncos/Seahawks in back-to-back weeks?
I'd also like to point out that Mike McDaniel might have the major offensive edge even with Skylar Thompson at quarterback.
Thompson (a former 7th-rounder out of Kansas State) started in three games as a rookie, going 1-2 as the starter. (2-1 ATS). However, in his first start, he also got hurt, making him 2-0 ATS in his two full starts as a rookie, including one in the postseason at Buffalo when Miami was 13.5-point underdogs.
Mike Macdonald's defense is complex and I'm not sure that either offense they have faced this season at the offensive firepower to expose it. Flashback to 2022 in Macdonald's first season as the Ravens DC.
Week 2 against the Dolphins led by Mike McDaniel. Tua Tagovailoa threw for nearly 500 passing yards and six TDs. Waddle and Hill both went over 170 receiving yards.
Miami has the requisite firepower to potentially expose Seattle's defense. I don't think they have been tested yet this season.
Therefore, I think this is a sneaky spot for offensive production. There are too many talented players on both sides of the ball for us to NOT see any fireworks.
Seattle showed last week that they are more than happy to open up the passing game, generating a +12% pass rate over expectation compared to Week 1's zero percent.
Player Props:
I fully expected the Dolphins to implement a quick passing game with Thompson at QB. Before Tagovailoa's injury, he had the quickest time to throw in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle should remain a staple in that strategy. Since the start of 2023, Waddle has finished with under 3.5 catches in just three games. Two were against the Chiefs.
My Picks:
- Dolphins ML
- Over 41.5
- Jaylen Waddle OVER 3.5 receptions
