Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Eagles vs. Steelers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sides:
- The Eagles have won each of their last nine games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Eagles’ last 18 games.
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 20 games.
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Eagles have lost five of their last 14 games as favorites.
- The Eagles are 5-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
- They covered just four spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- But at home in their last 24 games - 13-11 ATS as home favorites
- The Eagles have lost five of their last 11 road games.
- The Steelers have won 13 of their last 17 games.
- The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last six games.
- In six of the Steelers’ last eight games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
- Their opponents have scored last in each of the Steelers’ last four games.
- As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-3 ATS
- The Steelers are 15-8 ATS on the road (65%)
- The Steelers are 8-6 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
- 10-6 as road underdogs. The only road games they haven't covered were against the Browns/Bills or contests where they were less than 2-point underdogs or by double-digits.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last six road games against NFC opponents.
Totals:
- The Eagles are 14-17 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 6-12 toward the over on the road.
- Nine of the Eagles’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-5 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-4 toward the over at home this season (42.5 points per game)
- The Steelers are 6-7 toward the under this season. 2-3 O/U at home this season (39 points per game).
- Six of the Steelers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Steelers’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of the Steelers' last 17 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Steelers’ last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Mike Tomlin's Steelers are underdogs on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. Can you already tell where my lean is? We've seen this time and time again with Tomlin. He gets the best out of his teams when they are counted out the most, and I'd argue this is one of his best Steelers teams in recent years. Sitting at 10-3, nobody should be surprised if the Steelers give the Eagles everything they can handle.
Because I think that the coaching mismatch is what ultimately puts the Steelers in a perfect upset scenario, according to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles are the only team the Steelers have not beaten on the road. Hmmmm.
And I think it will come down to their defense showing out against Philadelphia. Because that's been the story all week regarding the Eagles. A.J. Brown is disgruntled due to a lack of targets instead of rejoicing over a 9-game win streak.
Jalen Hurts has been shaky as a passer, with the Eagles focused on running the ball so heavily.
As I have pointed out in the past regarding the Eagles’ games, much of their struggle to cover games has been due to their defense. Their offense (after predictable sluggish starts) always gets going from the second quarter on.
But the key number is 20 points. The Eagles don't usually cover if they allow 20 points. They held the high-powered Ravens offense to 19 points, some of which came on a garbage-time TD in the fourth quarter. Last week, they didn't cover despite allowing fewer than 17 points on defense. But had it not been for a Xavier Legette drop in the fourth quarter, their defense was on pace to allow 24 points.
Pittsburgh's chances of scoring over 19.5 points are listed at +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
But I don't even think it will take 20 points from the Steelers to cover this game.
I think we see both offenses struggle to some extent in a lower-scoring contest. And when the under is in play, I want to be on the side of the underdog. So even though six of the Steelers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line, the combination of these two defenses has me looking firmly at the under at 43.5 points. One Eagles' home game this season has gone over the total.
These teams want to run the football and play defense. Under, please.
I fully expected the Steelers to jump out to a lead against the slow-starting Eagles, and this might take them out of their run-first identity. The Steelers know who they are, but the Eagles look like they are going through an identity crisis despite boasting an 11-2 record.
I think we see more of a "forceful" attempt to address the passing game, specifically for AJB. This is not only a reason to take OVERs on Brown in the props market, but look at Jalen Hurts' interception numbers. It’s at plus money for Hurts to throw a pick in Week 15. Pittsburgh's defense ranks third in the NFL in interceptions and first in turnover margin this season. They have an interception in 10 of 13 games played this season, including 8 of their last nine contests.
The last time Hurts was intercepted, it was against a strong Dallas pass rush.
Props:
No QB has hit their closing line passing yards prop versus the Eagles since their bye week. Russell Wilson will be facing an uphill battle to hit 200-plus passing yards without George Pickens.
George Pickens has accounted for 44.0% of the Steelers intended air yards this season, the 2nd-highest team air yards share of any receiver in the NFL, trailing only Calvin Ridley (47.2%).
He has totaled 20 receptions on targets over 10 air yards, two times more than the next closest Steelers receiver (Calvin Austin, 10). Mike Williams led the Steelers receiving corps with a 40.1% air yards share in Week 14, with Pickens sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Williams also hauled in three of four targets for 36 yards. Big Mike had another 26-yard catch wiped away by an OPI call. The route usage wasn't great for Williams, but he was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes, tied for the team lead with a 21% Target share with the most air yards (78, 41% air yards share). When he was out there, Wilson was looking for him. He also ran a route on 41% of the dropbacks, an increase from the last few weeks. With Pickens doubtful, I expect Williams to take on a much larger role. Wilson is going to give him chances FOR 50/50 jump balls, so I am not overly concerned about the matchup against some of the Eagles CBs.
Williams' anytime TD odds are the second-highest EV bet this week in the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Research Report for Week 15.
Jaylen Warren has at least 18.5 receiving yards in five straight games.
My Picks:
- Under 43
- Steelers +5.5
- Mike Williams OVER 19.5 receiving yards
- Mike Williams anytime TD (+550)
- Jaylen Warren OVER 17.5 receiving yards
- Russell Wilson UNDER 202.5 passing yards
- Jalen Hurts OVER 0.5 interceptions
