I have a good feeling about Week 16. Last week’s parlay fell apart when the Patriots allowed Salvon Ahmed to run down the field and score a game-sealing touchdown, but hey, you can’t win them all. I’m standing firm and trusting my process in hopes for another regular-season hit.
Early in the week, it's easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you're unlikely to get during the weekend. There's a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I'll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play by every Wednesday morning.
While it's tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 16. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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#1. Browns (-6.5) at Jets — Alternate Spread (-167)
Yes, the Jets won last week. They’re also averaging a league-worst 14.7 points per game and are giving up the fifth-most points per game to their opponents (29.5). That’s an average point differential of 14.8 points — more than two touchdowns.
If you’re worried about their improved form in recent weeks, don’t be. Their strong homestand against the Raiders and upset win over the Rams were both preceded by games in which they scored only three points.
Why shouldn’t you worry about the Jets? Let’s say that you had bet against them on the moneyline each week. You’d be 13-1. If you were betting against them as 6.5-point underdogs, you’d be 10-4. Of those four losses, only one came against a winning team (Rams).
With Cleveland’s season — and the AFC North — on the line, the Browns won’t get caught sleeping in New York. They average 26.3 points per game, 11.4 more than what the Jets average, and a healthy margin above this alternate spread.
#2. 49ers at Cardinals (-2.5) — Alternate Spread (-182)
The 49ers just called it curtains for Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert. It’s been a lost season for the injury-riddled team, and they are now out of the playoff hunt. The team just added Josh Rosen to act as a backup for C.J. Beathard in case Nick Mullens can’t play.
San Francisco has won once in the last six weeks. Each of those losses came by more than a field goal, and the team’s average margin of defeat through that span sits at 11.4.
The Cards also have recent series history on their side. Back in Week 1, which must feel like a lifetime ago for Niners fans, the Cards eked out a four-point win in San Francisco. DeAndre Hopkins caught 14 passes for 151 yards. Chase Edmonds caught Kyler Murray’s only touchdown pass, while Murray and Kenyan Drake both scored rushing touchdowns. Jimmy Garoppolo tossed touchdown passes to Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon. Every player who scored for the Cardinals will suit up on Saturday; only one of the Week 1 scorers will play for the 49ers.
If San Francisco couldn’t keep this closer than a field goal with a healthier lineup at home, their depleted roster won’t keep it close, either.
#3. Broncos at Chargers o43 (-250)
The Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Chargers by 31-30 earlier in the year. The teams totaled seven touchdowns in the comeback win. Denver allowed Justin Herbert to toss three scores — one to Mike Williams, one to Keenan Allen, and one to Gabe Nabers, while Drew Lock tossed scores to DaeSean Hamilton, K.J. Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam. Phillip Lindsay also ran for a score.
Most of those players (except Albert Okwuegbunam) should be good to go on Sunday. Austin Ekeler will be available for Los Angeles, too. So while the offenses should look similar, the defenses — at least Denver’s — won’t.
The Broncos lost cornerbacks Bryce Callahan, Essang Bassey, Duke Dawson, Kevin Toliver II to season-injuries in the last four weeks. They also lost A.J. Bouye to a suspension. Last week, head coach Vic Fangio called the situation unprecedented in his coaching career.
Heading into Week 15, the Broncos are giving up the fifth-most points per game (28.2). They’ve allowed 32 per game over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers allow the sixth-most points per game (27.8). Sure, their offenses aren’t great; Denver scores the fourth-fewest points per game (19.7), and Los Angeles scores the 11th-fewest (23.4).
Since both teams are allowing more points than this line (56) and are scoring more than it, too (43.1), I’m surprised that the odds aren’t less generous.
Total Odds: +247
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.