Early NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Trends (2023)

At the beginning of each new NFL week, I'll be bringing forward a few trends for each game, varying from head coaches and QBs to recent performances in similar spots and historical data. Following the trends, I will have a short blurb on my best bet for that game and why I would make that bet - some of which will be backed by the trends, while others may not. While each game has their own specific trends, the overarching trend for Week 2 is simple - don't overreact to the results of Week 1. Each week in the NFL represents one data point per team, which will hardly be representative of that team's success (or lack thereof) for the entirety of the season. In line with that sentiment, teams that lost in Week 1 by 10+ points are 39-22-1 in Week 2, via ActionLabs.

Early NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Trends

Vikings @ Eagles - Thursday, September 14 – 8:15 p.m. EST

Current consensus lines - PHI -7; O/U 48.5

Vikings trends:

Kirk Cousins Road ATS (Career): 37-33-1
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 8-2 to the over

Eagles trends:

Jalen Hurts Home ATS (Career): 8-2-1 (8-0 as a single-digit favorite)
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 7-3 to the over

Best bet: Over 48.5 (-110) – Both QBs have historically played well in this spot, with recent scenarios trending heavily toward the over.

Packers @ Falcons - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m. EST

Current consensus lines - GB -1; O/U 40.5

Packers trends:

Matt LaFleur ATS (Career): 43-29
Previous 30 games as a road team: 17-13 ATS

Falcons trends:

Arthur Smith ATS (Career): 16-18-1
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 4-6 ATS

Best bet: GB -1 (-112) – Both teams are breaking in new QBs, but I give the edge to LaFleur and the Packers, especially with a spread this short.

Chiefs @ Jaguars - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m. EST

Current consensus lines - KC -3; O/U 51

Chiefs trends:

Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or favorite of 3 points or fewer: 19-6-1 ATS
Patrick Mahomes coming off a loss: 9-7 ATS

Jaguars trends:

Previous 20 home games: 8-12 ATS
Trevor Lawrence ATS (Career): 15-22

Best bet - KC -3 (-110) – Let's not overreact to what we saw on opening night, the Chiefs are the better team here and I expect them to bounce back with a win and cover, regardless of Kelce's status.

Seahawks @ Lions - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -5.5; O/U 49

Seahawks trends:

Pete Carroll ATS (Career): 118-105-7
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-8 ATS

Lions trends:

Dan Campbell ATS (Career): 24-11
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 8-2 to the Over

Best bet - SEA +5.5 (-110) – Another example of an overreaction to Week 1 results - this spread has jumped about a field goal from the opener and I simply don't think that's warranted, give me the Seahawks getting close to a TD.

Ravens @ Bengals - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - CIN -3.5; O/U 46

Ravens trends:

Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 8-2 ATS
John Harbaugh ATS (Career): 133-119-11

Bengals trends:

Joe Burrow ATS (Career): 33-15-1
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS

Best bet - CIN -3.5 (+100) – This is a matchup of good on good, with two teams that know each other extremely well. In line with the theme of not overreacting to Week 1 results, I like the Bengals to bounce back at home where they've been lethal under Burrow.

Chargers @ Titans - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - LAC -3; O/U 45

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 games as a road team: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 6-3-1 to the Over

Titans trends:

Mike Vrabel as an underdog: 24-15-1
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 to the Over

Best bet - Over 46 (-112) – Both teams tend to perform well in this spot over recent years, each skewing to the over in these situations.

Colts @ Texans - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - IND -1; O/U 39.5

Colts trends:

Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 road games as a favorite: 6-4 to the Under

Texans trends:

Previous 10 home games as an underdog: 5-5 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 5-5 to the Under

Best bet - Over 39.5 (-110) – New QBs and coaches for each side make the trends for this matchup somewhat negligible. I don't like what we saw from the Colts defensively in Week 1, and I think the young QBs will make mistakes that lead to easy points for each team.

Bears @ Buccaneers - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - TB -3; O/U 41.5

Bears trends:

Previous 10 games on the road: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-7 ATS

Buccaneers trends:

Baker Mayfield ATS (Career): 29-42-1
Todd Bowles ATS (Career): 31-44-7

Best bet - CHI +3 (-110) – I'll keep to the theme of not overreacting to Week 1 results and back this Bears squad in a bounce-back spot against potentially the least profitable QB-HC duo in the NFL.

Raiders @ Bills - Sunday, September 17 - 1 p.m.

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -9.5; O/U 47

Raiders trends:

Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Under

Bills trends:

Previous 20 games as a home team: 11-9 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 10-8-2 ATS

Best bet - Under 47 (-11o) – Bills spreads at home tend to be larger than most, which is why their ATS record might not be as great as you expect. In line with that, both teams skew towards the under in these situations, so I anticipate a lower scoring game in this one.

Giants @ Cardinals - Sunday, September 17 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NYG -5.5; O/U 39.5

Giants trends:

Brian Daboll ATS (Career): 14-6
Daniel Jones ATS (Career):32-24

Cardinals trends:

Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 6-4 to the Over

Best bet - NYG -5.5 (-110) I'm targeting the Giants as another bounce-back candidate in Week 2, coming off of one of the worst performances in recent memory on Sunday Night Football. I trust the combination of reigning COY Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones, who have been covering machines together, to get the better of this pretty poor Cardinals squad.

49ers @ Rams - Sunday, September 17 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF-8; O/U 44.5

49ers trends:

Brock Purdy ATS (Career): 7-2
Previous 10 games against the Rams: 7-3 ATS

Rams trends:

Matthew Stafford ATS (Career): 90-104-5
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 to the Over

Best bet - Over 44.5 (-108) The Niners have been a covering machine with Brock Purdy at the helm, but 8 points is a little too rich for me to take in a divisional road matchup. What we saw from both offenses in Week 1 was encouraging, and I trust that they'll have enough success to in Week 2 to clear this total.

Commanders @ Broncos - Sunday, September 17 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DEN -3.5; O/U 38

Commanders trends:

Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games on the road: 11-8-1 to the Under

Broncos trends:

Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 12-8 to the Under

Best bet - Under 38 (-114) – The trends speak for themselves on this one, with two very good defenses up against two offenses that are well below league average.

Jets @ Cowboys - Sunday, September 17 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -9.5; O/U 39.5

Jets trends:

Robert Saleh ATS (Career): 14-20
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 8-12 ATS
Previous 10 games on the road: 7-3 to the Under

Cowboys trends:

Mike McCarthy ATS (Career): 155-119-6
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS

Best bet - TBD (due to Aaron Rodgers news) I was high on the Cowboys coming into this season, so their Week 1 performance really didn't change my opinion on how good they are. They have the better team and the better coach, and they have performed well as home favorites in recent seasons.

Dolphins @ Patriots - Sunday, September 17 - 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIA -2.5; O/U 46.5

Dolphins trends:

Tua Tagovailoa ATS (Career): 21-14
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 8-12 ATS, 12-8 to the Under

Patriots trends:

Mac Jones ATS (Career): 15-18
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 2-8 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 4-6 ATS

Best bet - MIA -2.5 (-110) – Things just haven't been the same since TB12 left Foxborough, and I don't necessarily see things getting better any time soon with the Patriots. While they had an inspiring effort against the Eagles in Week 1, they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with this Dolphins squad that just ripped the Chargers apart for nearly 40 points.

Saints @ Panthers - Monday, September 18 - 7:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NO -3; O/U 40

Saints trends:

Dennis Allen ATS (Career): 21-32-1
Derek Carr ATS (Career): 69-74-2
Previous 10 games on the road: 7-3 to the Under

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games against the Saints: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 to the Under

Best bet - CAR +3 (-110) – The combination of Carr and Allen didn't exactly light the world on fire offensively in Week 1, and they haven't exactly been very profitable over the course of their careers, either. I'll take the Panthers as the home underdog in what figures to be a pretty low scoring game between divisional foes.

Browns @ Steelers - Monday, September 18 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - CLE -2.5; O/U 39

Browns trends:

Kevin Stefanski ATS (Career): 23-29
Deshaun Watson ATS (Career): 29-31-3
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 3-7 ATS

Steelers trends:

Mike Tomlin as an underdog: 48-29-3
Mike Tomlin as a home underdog: 13-6-2
Kenny Pickett ATS (Career): 8-5

Best bet - PIT +2.5 (-115) – The Mike Tomlin underdog spot missed in a big way in Week 1, but that's not going to stop me from going right back to the well in Week 2. The Browns had the benefit of playing an out of sync Bengals team in a weather-assisted win, while the Steelers had to play potentially the best team in the NFC. I expect the Steelers to win this game outright, but I'll take the free points.

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