I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Falcons vs. Jets.
NFL Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Jets
New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
My excitement for Steelers-Cardinals helps me forget that this game even exists. But hey, if there's money to be made, we must take advantage of it.
I struggle mightily picking sides in this spot, because I don't feel any sense of confidence backing Desmond Ridder on the road. As I have pointed out throughout the season, we back Atlanta at home and fade them on the road. Last week, they won outright as underdogs. At home. Pitch and catch. Not the case here playing at MetLife Stadium the anti-Coors Fields of the NFL. 11 games played. 9 unders between the Jets/Giants. And the only reason the Black Friday game went over was due to two pick-sixes.
The Falcons own a 1-4 record on the road, where they have averaged 15 points per game.
However, if I have to pick a side in a FG game, I still settle on the Falcons. Because I like backing the positive regression for the Falcons in one-score games. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.
This year? They started at 3-1 in one-possession games. They dropped three games in a row by scores of 5, 3 and 2, bringing their one-possession game record to 3-4. They won last week by nine points. I don't think this one-score losing streak keeps up.
But keep in mind, the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games. The Falcons have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.
Not good trends that work in favor of the Dirty Birds covering as road favorites.
But the Jets man. Tim Boyle is going to start again, after a horrible outing on Black Friday.
The Jets offensive drives went as follows: 5 Punts, Pick-Six on a Hail Mary Attempt, Halftime, Punt, Interception, TD!, Turnover on downs. Woof.
New York's only hope on winning this game comes down to their defense. But Atlanta has an offensive philosophy to run the football, which works in their favor in two ways. It exposes the weaker part of the Jets' defense and hides Ridder from losing the game. Check and mate. Sorry, Robert Saleh. As home underdogs, the Jets are 3-3 ATS.
Just bet the under on this game and move on. I got this early at 35.5, but if it's going under...it's going WAY under. 34 is still a fine number. Be sure to follow me on the BettingPros App to get notified when I place my early bets to get ahead of line movement (usually Sunday night). I'll also try to do a better job posting these plays in the BP Discord NFL picks channel.
Five of the Jets’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. Atlanta is 8-3 toward the under this season.
These 2 teams are a combined 8-14 toward the under this season. These teams have averaged 38.5 points this season.
As for props, I teased some same-game parlay action. Here's what I am looking at. Ridder under 182.5 passing yards. Fully expecting the Falcons - on the road - to hide Ridder and unleash Bijan Robinson against the Jets. New York is a run funnel.
The Jets defense is facing the league's LOWEST pass play rate at 51%. Meanwhile, the Falcons want to run no matter what. Last week, the Falcons posted a pass rate over expectation of -16%. Ridder attempted just 21 passes.
On the road this season, Drake London has not had more than 55 yards in any contest. Also has fewer than 50 yards in 3 out of 5 road games. The Jets are also allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.
The Jets are weaker against the run, allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game at over 100 yards to opposing RBs. Bijan Robinson's usage has been on an upward trajectory, and he's gone over 90 yards in back-to-back games. He will continue to roll against the run-funnel Jets defense.
To tie a complete bow on the Falcons, go MORE than on Younghoe Koo's 1.5 field goals. I (we) expect a low-scoring game. And that means field goals. The Jets rank last in FGs allowed per game (3) this season.
My Picks:
- Under 34
My Props:
- Desmond Ridder under 182.5 passing yards
- Drake London under 49.5 receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson over 58.5 rushing yards
- Younghoe Koo over 1.5 FGs made
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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