I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Falcons vs. Panthers.
NFL Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Panthers
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3)
The Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last six games against NFC South opponents. Against familiar opponents in the division, Arthur Smith's squad has come through.
The Panthers defense can't stop the run - very problematic against a team that would voluntarily run the ball 40 times and not throw once to avoid putting the ball in Desmond Ridder's hands. When these teams first played back in Week 1, the Falcons posted a -13% pass rate over expectation. Ridder attempted 18 passes.
Overs on Bijan Robinson rushing? You bet. Over 64.5 rushing yards. Or better yet, take the over on his 2.5 receptions prop. Gone over in 3 straight games. His average this season is 3.1 receptions per game. When he faced the Panthers back in Week 1, Robinson caught all 6 of his targets for 27 yards.
Robinson led with 6 carries and 5 targets in the first half of last week’s game. Robinson finished with 34 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. The rookie contributed more to the receiving game with 54 yards on 5 receptions from 7 targets.
The betting line opened with Falcons as 3-point road favorites, where it has stayed at the time of this writing. As we have said in many versions of the BP Primer, Atlanta is not a team you want to lay points with on the road or when they are a favorite. 4-2 at home versus 2-4 on the road. Away from Atlanta, they have averaged a meager 15 points per game. They also failed to cover the spread as favorites in 7 of their last 8 games.
Woof. But what element works in their favor is that they are still due for some positive one-score game regression. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.
This year? 4-5 entering Week 15 after losing by one score to the Buccaneers last week at home. Would presume they come out of the positive side of this mark this week.
Atlanta's defense is also superior in forcing punts, ranking third-best in the third-down conversion rate allowed. Any guesses to how Carolina's third-down conversion rate is on offense? 22nd. Atlanta also has the No. 2 red-zone defense. The Panthers defense ranks 31st in the red zone. Their offense ranks 22nd.
Back the Dirty Birds on the road and take the under. Run heavy game scripts from both teams don't project for a high-scoring environment.
And as gross as it is to back Ridder on the road, HE is the only reason why the Falcons are just 3-point favorites. But with the Falcons running game and their underrated defense poising such significant matchup advantages against Carolina, I don't think Ridder will be put in a position to blow this for us.
After all, Ridder covered on the road two weeks ago against a bad Jets team. The Panthers might be worse. No NFC teams are worse ATS than the Panthers (2-10-1, 23%) as they boast the worst record overall in the NFL.
More on the total.
Six of the Panthers’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Panthers are a perfect 5-0 toward the under at home (average 36.4 points scored).
These teams have averaged 40.5 points scored. But Carolina's offense has also been worse at home, averaging under 14 points per game.
Atlanta is 9-4 toward the under this season.
On to the more fun stuff. Player Props!
Adam Thielen went over his receiving yards last week, against a heavy man coverage team. The Falcons are not that team, playing more zone than man coverage. Thielen did nothing the first time these teams played in Week 1, posting 12 receiving yards. Even though the Falcons have been bad versus slot receivers, it may not matter with Bryce Young at QB.
Drake London was a perfect 5-for-5 for 73 yards in the first half of last week's game. Flew OVER the receiving yards prop at the jump. London led the receiving group in the end with 10 receptions for 172 yards on 12 targets (28% target share and nearly 180 air yards). Monster game.
But I have to admit this game for London - as great as it was - was very much matchup-based. He's great at home and the Buccaneers' pass defense is horrible.
Carolina is a run-funnel and they have an underrated secondary. On the road in Week 15, I'd be fading London in most cases for fear of a predictably heavy run-game script dialed up by head coach Arthur Smith. The weather in Carolina also forecasts for rain/wind.
Because Carolina is competent against the pass. 11 of 12 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season.
Therefore, take the UNDER on London's 56.5 receiving yards prop against Carolina on the road. London has gone over 50 yards on the road just twice this season, in 6 road games.
And in the games he went over, it was against the horrible pass defenses of the Bucs/Titans. Carolina held him catchless when these teams played in Week 1. Carolina is also facing the 3rd-fewest targets and 8th-fewest yards to WRs this season.
Younghoe Koe LESS THAN 1.5 field goals. The Panthers are tied for the league lead in the fewest field goal attempts faced this season (1.3). Koo has gone less than 1.5 FGs in 2 of his last 3 games. Koo missed two FGs last week.
It's the run-heavy nature of this game from both sides that has me HAMMERING the over on Chuba Hubbard's 15.5 rushing attempts. Gone over in the last three games. Gone over in 3 of the 4 games called by Thomas Brown as the team's offensive coordinator. Again, Hubbard has averaged 24 carries in the last 2 games.
The Panthers' defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. 8 of the last 10 tight ends Carolina has faced have gone UNDER their projected receptions totals. Also have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs aligned in the slot, where Kyle Pitts runs a lot of his routes.
He was held to two catches for 44 yards when he last faced the Panthers earlier this season. Take the under on his 3.5 receptions prop. He’s gone under in 8 of his 13 games played this season. Gone under in 4 of his last 6 road games and 5 of his last 7 games played.
My Picks
- Under 35
- Falcons -3
My Props
- Bijan Robinson OVER 2.5 receptions
- Kyle Pitts UNDER 3.5 receptions
- Drake London UNDER 56.5 receiving yards
- Bryce Young OVER 2.5 rushing attempts
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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