Introducing the Week 5 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 5 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Jaguars vs. Colts.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 5 Betting Primer>>
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sides:
- The favorites have won 14 of the Colts' last 16 games.
- The Colts are 1-1 ATS as favorites this season and 100% ATS as an underdog.
- The Colts are 7-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
- The Jaguars have lost nine of their last 10 games.
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 road games.
- The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
- The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite. They are just 2-8 as an underdog since the start of last season.
- The home team has won 12 of the last 13 games between the Colts and Jaguars.
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against the Colts.
Totals:
- Five of the last seven Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (seven starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
- Six of the Jags' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last 12 games.
- Jacksonville scored 30 or more points thrice in 2023. Two of those games came against the Colts.
Overall:
We've got an AFC South divisional showdown between the Colts and Jaguars, two teams that enter the matchup with major question marks.
The Jaguars are 0-4. Doug Pederson is being asked about his job security, and the team seems to be losing faith in Trevor Lawrence. Maybe that's a step too far, but regardless, this team needs to get out of its funk ASAP to avoid a dreaded 0-5 start.
The Colts also have some questions, mostly about who their starting quarterback will be. Anthony Richardson got banged up against the Steelers, so Joe Flacco might start. Given the rhetoric around Richardson's passing woes this season - even though he was dealing before he left the game against the Steelers - I'm not sure we’ll see massive line movement once an official quarterback decision is determined. It's in the Colts' best interest to keep the Jaguars on their toes regarding Flacco/Richardson, given their stark differences in play style.
You'd like Richardson to start, but I don't think sending out Flacco would be the worst for the Colts offense, given how bad the Jaguars are at defending the pass.
With Jonathan Taylor hurt, this game screams a super-heavy pass attack by Indianapolis. Per Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars defense has allowed -30 rushing yards over expected (6th-fewest) and -6 first downs over expected (2nd-fewest) to designed RB rushes in 2024.
Conversely, they rank second in passing yards per game allowed (273), third in EPA/pass attempt, and third in yards per attempt faced.
In these two matchups last season (both of which hit the over at 43.5 and 46.5), the Colts averaged 46 pass attempts. Pass rates over expectation of 8% and a whopping 31%.
Where will the air show be this weekend? Duval county. Top Gun-esque.
On the Jaguars side, I expect more of a balanced approach. The Colts have been a sieve as a run defense, so we could see Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby run wild. Indianapolis' pass defense also isn't great against the deep ball, allowing the most passing yards per game against throws of 20-plus air yards. This has been the Jaguars' bread and butter offensively, specifically with rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jaguars swept the Colts as favorites in their two matchups last season and find themselves in the same situation in Week 5. No team is more desperate for a win.
And although the Flacco hive is strong, he didn't necessarily engineer an amazing offense against the Steelers. But the Jaguars are not the Steelers.
My lean is toward the Jaguars -2.5. This team is 2-2 against the spread and could easily be 3-1 overall if a few balls bounce in different ways throughout the first month of the season. They have been the most unlucky team this season, so eventually, they will catch a break. Perhaps Richardson’s absence in Week 5 is the exact break they need to get the first win of the season.
I also can't completely overlook how well the Jaguars have played against the Colts historically, either. The favorites tend to win Colts games, and Jacksonville has traditionally been a strong bet as a favorite. The Jags have played three of their four first games on the road this season, which has further tarnished the team in the betting public.
I'm getting back on the horse. Jacksonville needs to build momentum before heading to London for Weeks 6-7.
Props:
Per Next Gen Stats, Brian Thomas Jr. leads all rookies in deep receptions (4) and receiving yards (140) this season. His 13.7 yards of average route depth ranks third-deepest among rookie wide receivers, trailing only Xavier Worthy (14.8) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (14.7). BTJ has at least 47 yards in all four games this season, going over his projected total each week. His four most comparable players against the Colts have ALL gone over 60 yards when they faced Indianapolis earlier this season.
My Picks:
- Jaguars -2.5
- Over 46
- Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 50.5 receiving yards
