Introducing the Week 8 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Jaguars vs. Packers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 Betting Primer>>
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sides
- Green Bay is 12-7 at home in its last 19 home games, 10-9 ATS
- They are 40% ATS over the last 17 home games (6-9-1)
- GB as a favorite: 8-15-1 ATS
- The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
- Since 2023, the Packers have been 13-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-4 ATS. Green Bay was 4-7 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
- Green Bay is 2-6 as road favorites ATS (25%) and 9-10 on the money line (47%).
- The Packers have covered the spread in their last six games against teams with a losing record.
- The Jaguars have an implied team total of 22.5 (same as the Texans last week)
- The Jaguars have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games (not in Jacksonville).
- The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-8 as an underdog since the start of last season.
- ATS they are 5-2 as a home underdog and on the money line (71%).
- Jacksonville went 2-0 straight up and ATS in London last season. 1-1 this season.
- The favorites are 6-2 straight up and ATS internationally since last season.
- The only "upset" last season was the Jaguars defeating the Bills after Jacksonville had already spent a week in London playing back-to-back games. After the Jaguars opened up as underdogs last week, they lost as favorites. They beat the Patriots as favorites.
Totals:
- The Packers are 17-9 toward the over since the start of 2023.
- Ten of the Packers' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, and 14 in Week 7.
- Eight of the Packers' last 12 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Packers have scored first in eight of their last 10 games.
- Green Bay is on a streak of three straight unders on their three-game winning streak.
- Four of the Jaguars’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Jags' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, six of the Jaguars' last eight games at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.
- A six-game streak of unders across the pond was broken in back-to-back weeks.
- The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in seven of their last 15 games.
- Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
- Both of the London Jaguars’ games last season were under the projected game total, and both games this season were over.
- The UNDER has hit in five of the last seven NFL games played in London.
Overall:
I am very much torn when choosing sides here. The Jaguars have been solid ATS as a home underdog and straight up (71%), whereas the Packers have been extremely lackluster as road favorites against the number (2-6). That being said, Green Bay has covered the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record. I also don’t love the on-paper matchup.
The Jaguars lead the NFL in man coverage. Per FantasyPoints data, Dontayvion Wicks has been targeted on 50% of his routes against man coverage - by far the most on the Packers offense. Christian Watson leads GB in yards per route run against man coverage. Last season, Watson led the Packers in target share (26%) against man coverage.
Jordan Love against man coverage this season ranks 39th in passer rating (68.0), 45th in yards per attempt, and 37th in catchable target rate.
I prefer betting the under on this game than chasing sides. It's a massive total at 50 points, a threshold the Packers have only surpassed twice this season. The Packers’ defense has shown out in three straight games (paired with three straight unders), so I think they can create some issues for this inconsistent Jaguars offense.
Props:
Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over his receiving yards prop in all but one game this season. The rookie continues to exceed expectations and that should continue against the Packers. Six of the last seven most similar WRs to Thomas have exceeded their receiving yards prop versus the Packers, with four going for 70-plus yards. Thomas has 80-plus receiving yards in three of his last four games.
My Picks:
