Jets vs. Broncos NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 4)

Introducing the Week 4 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 4 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Jets vs. Broncos.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 4 Betting Primer>>

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

Sides:

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games and are 2-1 ATS this season.
The Broncos are 4-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (2-2 ATS last 4)

Totals:

Eleven of the Jets' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of the Broncos' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
Eleven of the Broncos' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

How can we best put this game into perspective. After all, the Broncos beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road!

Per Next Gen Stats, the Jets have generated the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the league this season (45.6%).

When blitzing, the Jets' pressure rate jumps to 60.7%, the highest such rate in the NFL. The Broncos offensive line allowed a 23.1% pressure rate to the Buccaneers in Week 3, their lowest this season after allowing an average 36.4% pressure rate in Week 1-2.

Given that OT Mike McGlinchey is still out with an injury, I'd bet the Jets harass Box Nix into some mistakes on the road.

Denver also struggles to stop the run (11th in rushing yards per game), playing more in favor of the Jets' two-headed monster at running back between Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.

I see too many advantages for the Jets on both sides of the ball to have confidence backing the Broncos as touchdown-plus underdogs for a second straight week. We know that the Jets can be weak against the run (tenth in rushing yards allowed per game), but Denver's run offense has been abysmal this season.

Javonte Williams has seen his rushing yards drop for three consecutive weeks (23, 17, 12). He lost a fumble last week and proceeded to see one more carry after that. Given his lack of production, we might see other Broncos RBs more involved going forward.

But I hate the touchdown plus the hook spread for the slow-paced Jets offense that doesn't feel the need to blow out their competition.

Would avoid the sides entirely and opt for the under, although I'm very cool just scratching this game off my Week 4 card entirely.

Player Props:

The Broncos have the highest blitz-rate in the NFL at 45%. We'll see if they adjust against Aaron Rodgers, but I love the rushing prop on Rodgers if they are going to be sending heat his way. Rodgers looked spry last Thursday night, going for 18 yards on three carries.

Similarly, if the Broncos send multiple defenders Rodgers’s way to generate pressure, he will get the ball out quickly. Take the over on Breece Hall's receiving yardage props. He's gone over 27.5 receiving yards in three straight games. Also per FantasyPoints Data, Hall owns the third-highest first-read target share (18%) this season.

Courtland Sutton has been the target leader for the Broncos this season, but he draws a brutal matchup this week against the Jets. We saw Sutton get erased by CB Joey Porter Jr. in Week 2, and I'd expect something similar to happen in Week 4 when he matches up with Sauce Gardner.

Conversely, take the over on Josh Reynolds' 29.5 receiving yards prop. Gone over for three straight games.

My Picks: