Jets vs. Broncos: NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Jets vs. Broncos.

NFL Betting Primer: Jets vs. Broncos

Denver Broncos (DEN -2) vs. New York Jets

Denver's historically bad defense versus Zach Wilson. This should be fun to watch. Especially because we also have a coaching narrative with Nathaniel Hackett facing his old team that fired him last year. There's bad blood between these two teams and I am sure the Jets are using Sean Payton's offseason quotes as bulletin board material.

I've preached during the preseason about how overrated the Payton acquisition has been for the Broncos, and it's shown up in betting results. 0-4 versus the spread. They should have lost straight up last week versus the Bears. They got bailed out. That won't happen on Sunday after the Jets gave the Super Bowl reigning champions all they could handle on Sunday night. Unlike the Broncos. Who should have lost…

Wilson owns a 6-6 record straight up and lost just two games by more than 8 points since last year. Contrary to the belief, he plays in close games. Russell Wilson? A combined 11-21 in his last 32 games.

Continue to fade the overrated Broncos. This Jets defense - is by far the best unit they have faced this season.

Jets +2 or even Jets ML.

As for the total, these teams are a combined 5-3 toward the over this season. Denver has hit the over in its last three as they continue to trot out a historically awful defense.

If the Jets could score 20 points on a Chiefs defense that ranks fifth in fewest points allowed this season - and one that blanked the Chicago Bears to 10 points (who just scored 28 points last week versus Denver) I think we get enough offensive production from the Jets.

Denver's offense has been very productive, but I fear it is more related to the opponents they have faced. Still, the fact that the Jets have allowed as many offensive TD per game as the 49ers (1.5, sixth overall) has me convinced this unit can limit Denver's offense.

Both teams also want and should be able to run the ball effectively, which further suggests not chasing the steam toward the over. Both Wilsons could just crumble based on their larger sample sizes. Effective run games could eat up clock and lead to fewer possessions for each team.

I'll play it safe with the under.

As for the props, I am looking at the Denver WRs. Courtland Sutton under 47.5 receiving yards seems like a total layup. The Jets rank fifth in the fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs this season with their two top perimeter CBs. Sutton's only gone over this number twice in four games, and failed to do last week versus the Jets. Actually really like the under 3.5 receptions at +120 (DraftKings). The Jets have allowed just 3 WRs to surpass four receptions this season – Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and Kendrick Bourne.

Conversely, Jerry Jeudy has gone over 48.5 receiving yards in his last two games, as he returns from his hamstring injury. Given he gets to work more from the slot, he will get the more favorable matchup versus Jets slot CB, Michael Carter. Jeudy also went off when he played the Jets last season, amassing seven catches for 96 yards on 11 targets.

My Picks:

NYJ +2 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 43.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.