I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Jets vs. Dolphins.
NFL Betting Primer: Jets vs. Dolphins
Miami Dolphins (-8.5) vs. New York Jets
The Jets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 7 games. The Dolphins have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.
Miami is 4-2 ATS and 5-1 straight up at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but 2 contests.
They have been a solid bet backing at home, even as heavy favorites. 8-2 overall as a favorite.
I believe - as does the market - Miami can mostly overwhelm bad teams and fail to beat good teams. But that's when the team has their MVP, Tyreek Hill, healthy in the lineup.
When these lines were available before MNF, the Dolphins were 12.5-point favorites. They are now 8.5-point favorites. I can't touch Miami's side here without knowing the availability of Hill, as the true engine to this offense.
Even if Miami's defense has played better than how they started the season, allowing fewer than 285 yards per game in five of their last 6 games. 3-3 toward the O/U.
Zach Wilson returned from his "benching" last week and played better than he ever has at the NFL level. Some were citing that Wilson was playing more freely, with no pressure of being the Jets quarterback in the future. Whatever caused Wilson's dramatic improvement last week, Robert Saleh is praying it happens again.
The Jets allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Only one QB they have faced this season has gone over 256 yards...
They have also allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs, ranking 3rd in fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs.
They are more vulnerable versus the run. And I'd bet Mike McDaniel knows this and will be game planning around this strategically with Hill limited due to an ankle injury suffered on Monday night football. But rushing is used more to grind out wins and hit unders, rather than cover TD-plus point spreads and go OVER projected totals.
7 of the Jets' last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
For props, Breece Hall rushing unders at 43.5 yards. He has hit the under in his last five games (7 of last 8) as the Jets cannot run the football on the ground effectively in any way. He got to just 25 yards the last time he faced the Dolphins. Note that last week, Dalvin Cook out-carried Hall 4 vs 5 in the first half. Hall ended with 10 carries and 40 rushing yards versus Cook's 13 yards on 7 attempts. 62% snap rate to Cook's 24% snap share.
The Dolphins’ defense is going to present major issues for the Jets’ rushing attack. Miami is the 5th best defense vs RBs over the last 4 games in terms of rushing yards allowed. They are also allowing the lowest explosive run rate at 5.3%. Allowing the fewest rushes over 10 yards (16).
https://twitter.com/arjunmenon100/status/1734953999248331038
They haven't allowed many explosive plays overall on defense, which will put the Jets offense in a bind to score points quickly.
When these teams first played on Black Friday, the game total under was going to hit. Note that it took a Hail Mary pick-six to move the game from 16 points scored in the first half alone.
Miami is 4-2 toward the over at home this season. But the Jets suffocating defense has me strongly just backing the under. Bad weather is also in the forecast. And I don't want to bet on the Dolphins offense without Hill (or him not at 100%) nor the Jets offense with Wilson at the helm.
Forced to pick a side, I lean toward New York. 8.5 points is just too big a number against one of the league's elite defenses. Not to mention all the other injuries aside from Hill the Dolphins are dealing with.
Dolphins CB Xavien Howard has a hip injury.
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane has a toe injury.
Dolphins OL Liam Eichenberg has a calf injury.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill has an ankle injury.
This team is being affected by mass injuries at the worst time in the season.
Yes, I know,...
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) December 13, 2023
And they are playing on a short week. Woof.
My Picks
- Jets +8.5
- Under 37.5
My Props
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts