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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by November 13, 2021
Derek Carr

Week 10 brings us a marquee AFC West matchup between the faltering Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. The question in this game will be if the Chiefs can find their offensive rhythm again after weeks of horrid play. 

Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game. 

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Details

  • Opening Line: O/U: 51.5 |LV +2.5
  • Current Line: O/U: 52 | LV +2.5

Overview

If I told you earlier in the year that the Raiders would be a game ahead of the Chiefs in the standings by Week 10, you wouldn’t believe it. And for good reason. 

However, that’s how it has played out in the AFC West to date. The league has figured out how to tame the typically explosive Chief’s offense. Rendering Patrick Mahomes mortal, along with his supporting cast. 

The Raiders are a surprising 5-3 despite a myriad of distractions. Coach Jon Gruden was fired weeks ago after decade-old inappropriate emails circulated and recently had to deal with the tragedy surrounding the Henry Ruggs incident. 

They threw up a clunker last weekend at the Giants, but considering the adversity they’ve faced, we may be able to look past it. 

Below we’ll compare how these two team’s matchups metrically:

Numbers Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

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Average Offensive Snaps

  • KC: 73.7
  • LV: 70.8

% Run Plays: 

  • KC: 29.7%
  • LV: 35%

% Pass Plays:

  • KC: 70.3%
  • LV: 65%

EPA Per Run: 

  • KC: -0.20
  • LV: -0.26

EPA Per Pass:

  • KC: 0.13
  • LV: 0.12

These teams grade out close to one another. Surprising to some, but at this point in the season, teams are what they are. PFF has the Chiefs rated as the 9th overall offense, with the Raiders not far behind at NO. 15. 

A big surprise this season has been the Raiders’ defense. Currently ranked 5th by PFF, Maxx Crosby has been very effective at DE to supplement defense tackle Solomon Thomas’s strong play. 

Trends

  • Under is 22-10 in the last 32 meetings
  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Las Vegas
  • Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings

Bottom Line

Kansas City is a shell of its former self. Additionally, Derek Carr has been spectacular this season. As it stands, he is outplaying Mahomes, registering an 82.5 PFF grade and a 7.32% big throw percentage – to Mahomes’ 2.75%. 

The Raiders have an edge on defense and can keep pace with the Chiefs offensively. Back at home, in prime time, I’ll be backing the Raiders.

Pick: Raiders +2.5

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