The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and, as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
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MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (7/3)
Season Record: 27-13
Ian Happ Over 0.5 Runs (-105 at BetMGM)
Happ has struggled on the season as a whole, but has a plus matchup this evening against Andre Pallante. Happ is .476 lifetime against Pallante over 15 at-bats, with four extra-base hits, with one being a long ball. He added four walks to give him an OPS of 1.446. Happ has hit safely in each of his last two games, but perhaps more interestingly, he has scored at least one run in four of his last five. Happ has scored a run in 14 of his last 18 games in which he recorded a hit.
Pallante comes to the mound boasting a slightly above average 3.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, he was rocked for four earned runs in just 3.0 innings six starts ago when he faced this same Cubs lineup. Happ went 2-4 with one run scored when he faced Pallante at Busch Stadium on May 29th. He hit a three run shot to help chase Pallante from the game.
The juice on this hit prop is utterly ridiculous (-200) given his lack of success at the plate this season, but the books, of course, have the same data we do and are pricing accordingly. In that light, we will opt for the run total. Hit the Over on Happ for Friday's action at DraftKings.
Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits (-230 at BetRivers)
Suzuki is another Cubs batter worth taking a look at this evening, thanks to a plus matchup against Andre Pallante. Seiya went 3-4 against Pallante on May 29th. Suzuki is back to hitting for a respectable number this year and will step to the plate boasting a .274 batting average. Seiya has recorded multiple hits in each of his past three games and in four of five overall. He has recorded at least one hit in each of their last six and in 10 of his last 12.
Pallante comes to the mound sporting a solid enough 3.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He is in the midst of his best season but still profiles as more of a number four than a three. As mentioned above, Pallante was chased from the game before even recording an out in the third inning the last time he faced Chicago.
The hit total has been moved to 1.5 at some books already, so this is one you’ll want to lock in sooner rather than later. Seiya is the lone hitter on this list who still looks good at 1.5 hits, but we will opt for probability over maximizing return and take the 0.5 with the higher juice. Stick with the Over for Suzuki at BetRivers.
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits (-194 at Kalshi)
Shohei is a top play for Friday’s slate thanks to a date with a familiar foe in the San Diego Padres’ Michael King. Ohtani has hit .444 lifetime in 18 at-bats against the Padres’ pitcher. Ohtani has hit safely in six of his last seven games and in nine of his last 11. He has hit under .300 over the last seven and 14 days, so we are going to roll with the higher juice on the 0.5 total instead of the 1.5. This is not an alt line yet, but it likely will be by game time, so lock this one in sooner rather than later.
King has flashed ace-level stuff in prior years but is brandishing a modest 3.55 ERA with a strong 1.18 WHIP. June was his worst month of the season and saw him go 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He managed just 18 strikeouts in 24 innings. He may find a way to get back on track this season, but is expected to have a tough duel with Ohtani. Slap the Over on Shohei for Friday night at Kalshi.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.