2026 US Open Women’s Semifinals Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/10)

We head into the final weekend of the 2026 US Open with new blood guaranteed on the men’s side with the usual suspects all falling before the semifinals and none of the remaining men possessing any US open hardware. On the women’s side, the usual suspects is exactly what we have with four woman atop the WTA World Rankings being the final four women standing at this year’s tournament.

Let’s dive into Thursday night’s two intriguing semifinal matchups.

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Thursday's Best US Open Women’s Semifinals Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Aryna Sabalenka (BEL) vs. Jessica Pegula (USA)

Jessica Pegula is 2-1 vs. Aryna Sabalenka in their last 3 meetings, while Sabalenka holds all time series 9-4 including 3-0 in grand slams and 2-0 in the US Open. In fact, Saby has sent Pegula packing from the US Open the past two years, beginning with their 2024 Finals meeting.

Peggy Sue is 1-0 this year with her 2-1 victory at the Berlin Open in June. However, that was on grass. Pegula did beat Sabylenka on the hard court last October in Wuhan in their first rematch following last year's US Open semifinals, the same round we are in now.

Pegula is playing up save the family farm back in Buffalo...I kid, as she is the daughter of Buffalo Bills owners, Terry and Kim Pegula, of the Western New York Pegulas. Don't worry about Terry; he's doing just fine! His business just moved into a new $2.1 billion building; haven'tcha heard?

Sabalenka lost her #1 World Ranking yesterday, as Elena Rybakina, by advancing to the semifinals on the other side of the bracket, has become the new #1 ranked women's tennis player in the world. This ends Saby's 99-week reign (6th longest in WTA history) as #1 that began October 21, 2024. Rybakina will now remain #1 after this tournament regardless of the outcome of the next two rounds. This might light a fire in her craw that brings out a dominant performance, but this ranking situation was not a secret, and she has still had to scrape out some wins as this tournament has gone on.

During Sabalenka's 99-week stint atop the World Rankings, only Elena Rybakina (naturally) has more head-to-head victories (four) against her than Jessica Pegula's two. Coco Gauff has also beaten Saby twice in that time, but no other player has more than one over her, and plenty have Ls. Take a look at the final four ladies standing this tourney; the road the US Open runs through Belarus. The Moroccanoil Global Brand Ambassador HAS won her last 18 US Open matches, a streak that is good for 5th longest in the modern history of the tournament. If she can complete the three-peat and take home her third straight US Open, she would get to 20 consecutive match wins, tying Steffi Graf for 4th all-time and moving with one of Serena Willams and Martina Navratilova for second-longest in the modern era. She has a ways to go before reaching Chris Evert's 31, or Graf's number, or even 19, for that matter.

Pegula, despite the 2-2 split in their last four head-to-head, is 4-0 ATS during that same time. As much value as I see at the present moment in Pegula's +168 moneyline, the best bet is Pegula +3.5.

Pick: Jessica Pegula +3.5 (-135)

Elena Rybakina (KAZ) vs. Coco Gauff (USA)

Elena Rybakina has won 17 consecutive WTA matches against opponents from the United States. Coco Gauff has failed to cover the spread in five of her last six US Open matches. They have split their two all-time meetings 1-1, but both have gone the distance, needing all three sets to decide the winner.

While they have a split record H2H, Rybakina won the most recent matchup on August 12, at the Canadian Open in Toronto, covering the +1.5 spread in the process as well. The other meeting was at the same tournament four years prior and with Rybakina taking over World #1 yesterday, that match seems less indicative of current events.

Both women have each only dropped a single set all tournament and for both, it came in their last round. Both also had to comeback from 0-1 deficits in the preceding round and come in as battle tested as one could with a combined 20-2 set record in this year's US Open. This is an excellent matchup but I think there is some hole cooking baked into the numbers here with the Americans. Rybakina took over the World Rankings and yet is a relatively slight favorite. The sharps seem to agree as Rybakina's moneyline has moved from -102 to -121 overnight.

Pick: Elena Rybakina Moneyline (-121) & Over 2.5 Total Sets (+110)

Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports, Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner, and on TikTok @The GreatLoudini. For more from Luke, check out his archive.