Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Lions vs. Bills.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
Sides
- The Bills have won 16 of their last 20 games.
- The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites.
- The Bills have won 10 of their last 11 home games.
- The Bills have covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
- The Buffalo Bills are 20-7 as a favorite since the start of last season and 14-13 ATS.
- Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 28 games.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
- The Bills have won their last 14 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
- Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 14-2 straight up and 9-7 ATS at home.
- Bills are 8-7 ATS as road favorites. As a road underdog, Buffalo is 2-4 straight up and on the money line (33%).
- The Bills have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
- The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
- The Lions have covered the spread in 15 of their last 20 games.
- The Lions are 23-10 ATS as favorites.
- They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 19-8 ATS over their last 27 games (70%). When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
- The Lions have won each of their last 11 games.
- The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 14 of their last 18 games.
- The Lions have won 13 of their last 15 home games.
- The Lions have won their last 13 games against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 16 of their last 17 games.
- The Lions have been the first to 15 points in their last 11 home games.
- The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 road games.
- The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.
Totals:
- Each of the Bills’ last four games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Bills’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line. (18 of their last 24 road games)
- Six of the Bills’ last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Bills’ last 11 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Bills’ last nine home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 6-0 toward the over this season (53 points per game).
- Buffalo is 6-0 toward the over at home this season (53 points per game).
- Fifteen of the Lions’ last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The average total in the Lions’ last 26 home games has been 54.4 points; 72 percent (19/26) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
- Nine of the Lions’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Lions' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Lions’ last three road games have gone under the total.
Overall:
We are back at Ford Field (the Coors Field of the NFL) with a projected shootout on deck between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions. The game total is set at an enormous 54.5-point number, the highest we have seen in any game yet this season.
But is this number too high? After all, I've never seen a game total played in Detroit where I was not too fond of the over. Keep this in mind: 54.5 points is the average game total for games in Detroit over the last three-plus seasons. Just this season, Lions games, on average, are hitting 55 points per game. The last five home games for the Lions have seen four go for 58-plus (61-point average).
Historically, games with a total that closed between 53.5-54.5 went with a record of 62-52 (54% toward the over).
You don't need any advanced analysis from me to be convinced this game should be high-scoring. But the fact that this game is being played in an environment conducive to a shootout, has me bullish on this total betting.
We know the Lions can score on anybody, and Josh Allen might be in for another six TD performance. And although Buffalo is 4-3 toward the under on the road this season, three of the last four have gone OVER the projected total.
Props:
The Lions have been a bottom-five defense against slot WRs, so it’s another great spot for Khalil Shakir to produce. He has gone over 54.5 yards in seven of his last 10 games played.
Detroit's defense plays a lot of man coverage, and they love to blitz. This could prove problematic against a mobile Josh Allen. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen has attempted 43 passes after scrambling from the pocket this season, tied for the 3rd-most in the NFL.
Allen has averaged 18.7 air yards per attempt across those 40 attempts, the most among the 29 quarterbacks with at least 15 passes after scrambling. Allen has completed 10 of 26 downfield passes (10+ air yards) after scrambling for 292 yards and two touchdowns, completing these passes to nine different receivers.
Allen has also completed 58.7% of his passes against the blitz this season, recording 969 yards and a league-high 14 touchdowns (Next Gen Stats).
Allen has also recorded a 123.8 passer rating against the blitz this season, the fourth-highest in the NFL. Allen has been pressured on just 36.7% of dropbacks against the blitz (8th-lowest in the NFL), including a 4.2% sack rate (7th-lowest). The Lions have blitzed at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (36.4%) but have generated the 7th-lowest pressure rate when doing so (38.0%). The Lions have allowed just four touchdowns and forced seven interceptions while blitzing this season, the 2nd-most interceptions in the NFL.
Since Week 7, Josh Allen has thrown for 240-plus yards in five of his seven games.
In 10 games this season, both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have scored a TD. Parlay their TD odds together to get close to a 2-to-1 payout.
The Bills’ defense ranks in the top 3 in most yards, catches, and targets to RBs in the passing game this season.
David Montgomery has over 15.5 receiving yards in six straight games and in 10 of his 13 games played this season (78%).
According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills have utilized 5+ defensive backs on 97.5% of defensive snaps this season, the highest mark in the NFL.
Their usage of both nickel (77.8%, 4th) and dime (19.4%, 7th) rank within the top 10 league-wide. However, the Bills usage of light personnel has left them susceptible in the run game, allowing the 7th-most yards per carry (4.7) and the highest explosive run rate (14.5%) despite limiting teams to negative or no gain at the highest rate in the NFL (23.6%).
Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for at least 69 yards in his last six games against teams not named the Green Bay Packers. He is also 5 of 7 toward the over at home this season.
Don't forget about rookie WR Keon Coleman. He should make his return to the lineup after he missed several weeks with a wrist injury. According to Next Gen Stats, Coleman has gained 249 receiving yards against press coverage (less than 3 yards of separation) this season, the 9th-most in the NFL, despite not having played since Week 9.
His 249 receiving yards gained against press coverage in Weeks 1-9 are the 5th-most of any rookie wide receiver through the first nine weeks of a season since 2016. The Lions have pressed on 34.4% of cornerback snaps this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.
The Bills love throwing the ball to Coleman in the end zone.
Amari Cooper had 14 targets (38%) in Week 14 and caught 6 for 95 yards, showing his reliability but failing to find the end zone.
The veteran WR was being hyper-targeted, given he was the third on the Bills in routes run behind Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir. Cooper was targeted on a whopping 61% of his routes.
He was clearly the focal point of last week's game plan. But I can't help but think this could have been an even bigger game from Cooper: 14 targets and over 250 air yards (54% air yards share). That being said, I love him for a strong repeat performance against the Lions, who love to play man coverage. Even at his older age, Cooper can still get very open against man coverage.
The Lions give up a ton of passing volume to opposing WRs (not TEs). Take some longer shots at first TDs and anytime TDs with the Bills WRs. Or just parlay them with a David Montgomery TD call.
My Picks:
- Over 54.5
- David Montgomery OVER 15.5 receiving yards
- Khalil Shakir OVER 54.5 receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 67.5 rushing yards
- Keon Coleman anytime TD (+190)
- Keon Coleman 1st TD (+1500)
