Sunday's matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Washington Football Team features two teams whose seasons seem to be trending in opposite directions. After winning three of their first four games, the Rams have a great opportunity to continue their hot start as touchdown favorites. Washington is still searching for an identity, particularly on offense where a quarterback change was made in advance of this week's game. Needless to say, the level of intrigue is high in advance of this Week 6 NFL matchup.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Rams -9.5; O/U 46
- Current ATS Line: Rams -7
- Current Over/Under: 46.5
- Location: FedEx Field - Landover, MD
- Start Time: 1 p.m. EST
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: September 17, 2017 - Washington defeated the Rams 27-20 in Los Angeles.
- Attendance: No in-person attendance allowed
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
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Overview
The first quarter of the 2020 season proved to be a resurgent four games for the Rams' offense. After poor offensive line play and the absence of a running game left LA very one-dimensional last season, Sean McVay seems to have things back in working order. Both Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown have been efficient when called upon this season. With an entire offense no longer riding on his shoulders, Jared Goff has played much better. After a rather sluggish showing last week, the Rams will look for better offensive numbers come Sunday.
Defensively, the Rams might not be the most cohesive unit in the NFL, but they have the star power to wreck an opposing team's drive at any time. After his run-in with Golden Tate last week, Jalen Ramsey will have the assignment of slowing down Terry McLaurin. At least he knows Aaron Donald should be able to achieve consistent penetration against Washington's less than stellar offensive line.
Of course, the big change for Washington this week is at the quarterback position. Ron Rivera had seen enough of Dwayne Haskins in the first four weeks. He not only benched him but dropped him to third on the depth chart, behind both veteran Alex Smith and Sunday's starter, Kyle Allen. Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner had Allen as their quarterback in Carolina last season prior to Rivera being ousted from the job, so there is a level of familiarity there. How much Washington's offense benefits from the change remains to be seen.
Defensively, there is hope that Chase Young will be ready to go by Sunday. The rookie No. 2 overall pick practiced on Thursday for the first time since injuring his groin in Week 3. Given the vast amount of weapons in the Rams' offense, Washington will gladly welcome him back as they try to mount pressure on Goff.
Trends
- Rams 2020 Betting Trends: 2-2 ATS; 2-2 to the Over
- Washington 2020 Betting Trends: 2-2 ATS; 3-1 to the Over
- Washington is 3-2 straight up and ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings against the Rams.
- The outright winner has also covered the spread in each of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Rams and Washington.
- The Under has cashed in 8 of the last 12 head-to-head meetings between the Rams and Washington.
Prop Bet
Total Touchdowns-Home Team: Over 2 (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Washington Football Team has scored 27, 15, 20, and 17 points respectively in each of their first four games this season. While they are far from the most prolific offense in the NFL, they have managed to score a minimum of 2 touchdowns in every game thus far. With FanDuel offering plus-money on Washington to go over 2 touchdowns on Sunday, this is a prop bet more than worth making. At worst, they score 2 TDs exactly and you push. The Rams rank 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders, and their 20 points allowed per game is helped immensely by the 9 they gave up to a horrible New York Giants team last week. The switch to Kyle Allen at quarterback has the chance to reinvigorate this Washington offense. We also know that Jared Goff is plenty capable of throwing a costly interception to set the Football Team up with a short field.
Bottom Line
Despite glaring holes on the offensive line and a question mark in terms of the level of quarterback play, they will get from week to week, Washington still has everything to play for. At 1-3, they are but a half-game out of first place in the NFC East heading into Week 5. The Rams are an excellent football team, but should you back them to cover the full touchdown number?
With sharp action driving the line on this game down a full 2 points, the home underdog is clearly the smart play. What's interesting is that every time buyback has come on the Rams to stretch the line back out to 7.5, Washington has taken more sharp money and the line has fallen back to an even 7. This slight half-point move around the key number is even more influential than a larger line move across numbers.
The fact that the Rams have to travel east across three time zones also cannot be overlooked. One other fascinating trend to note for this matchup: The Under has hit in 9 of Washington's last 10 games against NFC West opponents.
Pick: Washington +7 or better; Total Under 46.5 (-105 and -115 respectively at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.