Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (2024)

After almost five weeks of waiting, we have our first UFC card of the year. We ended last year on an incredible run, hitting a monster first-round KO prop for Josh Emmett at +850!!!

Overall, we ended the year up almost 25 units. That’s not too shabby. This card is being criminally overlooked simply because next week features a gigantic PPV event with numerous title fights and upper-echelon fighters.

Let’s see if we can continue our good fortune and start the new year off right. Here are our top UFC Fight Night odds and picks. Below we dive into Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker.

Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>

UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Magomed Ankalaev (-520) vs Johnny Walker (+390)

Magomed Ankalaev

Dist Acc Off: 46.6%
Dist Att/Min: 7.87
Dist Def: 56%
KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 196 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 26.1%
Control % Def: 1.5%

Johnny Walker

Dist Acc Off: 46.9%
Dist Att/Min: 11.24
Dist Def: 60%
KD%: 1% (1 KD out 100 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 12.6%
Control % Def: 13.9%

This fight was scheduled in October and ended in a No Contest because of a knee to the head of a grounded opponent. Ankalaev has now had two fights in a row where a victor was not crowned. His draw against Jan Blachowicz was one of the most puzzling fights of 2022 and we are now a year and a half removed from his last victory. He has all the skills to take the next step and compete for the light heavyweight championship, it just has not materialized.

Johnny Walker, on the other hand, has had high highs and some enormous lows. As many know, he was supposed to be the best challenger to Jon Jones in almost a decade. Walker has won three fights in a row and has been pretty active over the last year. His first fight against Ankalaev marked his third bout of 2023. He has reigned in his super flashy style and has fought infinitely more discipline as of late.

The line has widened since the first fight and I honestly do not understand why. Ankalaev as a 3 to 1 favorite is acceptable, but 5 to 1? I do not see that as reasonable. Especially when dealing with an explosive athlete like Walker.

Bet: Johnny Walker (+390)

Record

ML: 59-51-3 (+9.40 units)
Props: 17-35-1 (+8.10 units)
Parlays: 5-27 (+7.71 units)
Overall: +25.21 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data.