After a 3-1 week in which we missed a perfect set of picks by a half-point, we came right back with a 4-0 sweep! That puts us on a beautiful 7-1 run over the last two weeks.
We’re hitting our stride at just the right time.
This is not uncommon. It’s often difficult to find value as the season progresses because the oddsmakers adjust and close the gap between perception and reality, but we generally see a nice surge at the end. This is because the latter weeks of the year have all 32 teams in action, which gives us a larger set of options. The job, now, is to remain focused on the handful that can deliver again.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 28-23-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 43 (-110)
The prominent storyline of the game between the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals will be the return of Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton to Cincinnati. As a result, the expectation will be a ‘revenge game.’
On the surface, I love it. Revenge is an important element of sports, and the idea of Dalton dominating his former team is fun.
Deep down, it’s an opportunity for a mistake with the over-under.
Name value carries weight in NFL picks, and ‘Dalton against his former team’ has value. The reality is that Dallas has scored fewer than 20 points in six-out-of-its-last-seven games.
No problem! The Cowboys’ defense is atrocious!
This is true. Dallas ranks dead last in points-allowed-per-game. The issue is that Cincinnati’s offense has been completely inept. The Bengals have a total of 43 points scored over their last four games. It took a broken play by Cincinnati to avoid a shutout, last week.
Both teams have their paths to scoring — Dalton for Dallas and the Cowboys’ defense for Cincinnati — but both would need to contribute to clear the ‘over.’ It’s not likely that these two specific forces deliver in the same game.
Prediction: Cowboys/Bengals UNDER 43 (-110)
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers -3 (-115)
I’ve written an against-the-spread NFL picks article for the last six years. During that time, I have repeated two phrases so often that it probably makes my readers sick. Lucky you, as I’ve also written it a few times for this BettingPros column.
And I get to do it again!
Really, I get to repeat both.
We expected this to happen.
It was a division game.
The Denver Broncos just played against the Chiefs on national television. The spread was massive and the general expectation was that Denver would be slaughtered by Kansas City.
It didn’t happen.
There are a few reasons why and how the Broncos competed to the point that they beat the spread, and these reasons were detailed in last week’s column. Which is why it’s important, again, to highlight that we should not be surprised by Denver’s competence. Really, we should not overreact.
The good news is that we know others will. People will look at the Broncos’ performance and be impressed. Moderately, maybe, but impressed nonetheless.
And the Carolina Panthers? We’ve already forgotten about them.
Carolina last took the field two weeks ago when they lost an impossibly heart-breaking game to Minnesota. The Panthers now enter play at 4-8 and as an afterthought.
All that, and they’re favored in the game.
There’s a reason.
Denver will be overvalued, especially as an underdog, while the Panthers set up to return to action and sneakily cover the spread.
Prediction: Panthers -3 (-115)
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 42.5 (-114)
I’ve now written this in a number of places, but the Philadelphia Eagles moving from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts at the quarterback position has almost nothing to do with Hurts. Wentz was becoming such a problem as a passer that his lack of confidence throwing the ball was permeating throughout the offense. Hurts, simply by virtue of not being Wentz, provides a change in mentality.
Might Hurts struggle? Absolutely. The Saints’ defense ranks second-best in the league in yards allowed. The over-under is low, however, and, even in games that Wentz has started, Philadelphia has managed to reach 16 points in every single matchup this year.
On the flip side, if the Eagles can’t move the ball, it will give the Saints extra opportunities to reach the ‘over’ single-handedly. At that point, Philadelphia, as a whole, will likely lose the ability to complete, clearing the way for New Orleans to deliver a high score.
Prediction: Saints/Eagles OVER 42.5 (-114)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 (-110) at Buffalo Bills
I’m giddy.
Every so often, two teams will play their respective games that must produce a shift in perception. If we’re lucky, those two teams will meet next week.
We’re lucky.
The Pittsburgh Steelers losing to Washington is exactly what we needed for the football-watching world to heavily sell Pittsburgh.
The Buffalo Bills winning a convincing game on national television is exactly what we needed for the football-watching world to heavily buy Buffalo.
And here we are.
It was easy to argue against the Steelers’ bid for a perfect season. People were downplaying the team’s place in history for weeks. Still, losing to Washington was rather unexpected — at least, compared to some other options on the schedule. Now that it’s happened, we’re bound to have a “told you so” effect.
We’re directly seeing that effect in the spread.
Originally, the Steelers were favored against the Bills. Now, Pittsburgh is getting points. It’s a classic overreaction and one that we can target.
We also can’t forget that Buffalo’s defense ranks 21st in yards allowed, paving the way for Pittsburgh’s relatively mediocre offense to move the ball. Of course, the Steelers thrive defensively, and they will get to flex their muscles on a Primetime stage immediately after failing to keep their undefeated season alive.
And they’ll be getting points in the process.
Prediction: Steelers +1.5 (-110)
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.