We are into the final two weeks of the regular season, and the playoff picture is moving toward completion with each passing game. That’s an easy narrative to track and one that usually takes the spotlight around this time of year, but it’s also one we should approach with caution.
Even though we have two weeks to sort out 14 playoff spots, we also have 14 games of data to use at our disposal. It’s wise to not overlook where the teams have been before trying to gauge where they will go.
That is the key theme for Week 16.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 33-26-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans OVER 46 (-109)
The Cincinnati Bengals shocked the football-watching world when they pulled off an outright upset win on national television by beating their rivals from Pittsburgh. In doing so, they opened some eyes and proved that they aren’t a complete disaster of a team in the absence of starting quarterback Joe Burrow.
They also proved that their offense is anything-but-dangerous.
Despite scoring 27 points — the highest total since Week 8 — the Bengals tallied 230 yards of offense. It was only thanks to a season-high three takeaways that Cincinnati had shorter fields with which to work, and it directly led to the bulk of the team’s points. We cannot realistically expect this to carry into Sunday’s game against the Houston Texans.
Good thing we don’t need an uncharacteristically big offensive performance from Cincinnati in order to reach the over-under.
Since its open, the point total has increased slightly. This is unlikely due to an overreaction from the Bengals’ win — we’ll see that elsewhere in this column — mainly because it was difficult for anyone to be impressed with Cincinnati’s sputtering offense. Instead, the number is likely increasing because of both teams’ defenses on Sunday.
Houston is allowing the second-most yards in the league, and the Bengals just played against the defenses of Pittsburgh, Washington, Miami, and the Giants in five-of-their-last-six games.
We can make the same argument in the Texans’ favor, as their offense will transition from three consecutive games against the Bears and Colts — twice — to the Bengals’ defense, which ranks 22nd in yards allowed and 25th in takeaways.
Neither offense may have been overly impressive lately, but the point total is too low for what the defenses are likely to allow on Sunday.
Prediction: Bengals/Texans OVER 46 (-109)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-112)
I alluded to revisiting the fallout from the Monday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Bengals, and we see it immediately when looking ahead to the Steelers’ game against the Indianapolis Colts.
“Immediately” is not an exaggeration.
Before the Steelers lost in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh was giving points to Indianapolis. Most websites had the number at two-and-a-half-points. Since the loss? The Steelers are now underdogs.
Let’s think about the big picture.
Fundamentally, nothing changed between the Steelers’ roster on Monday night compared to what we will see on Sunday afternoon. Indeed, the possible return of running back James Conner could be a boost, but the Steelers run the ball fewer than all-but-five teams. That can’t be the reason.
Really, we know the reason. We all know the reason.
The Steelers are now underdogs on Sunday because they looked terrible in their loss to the Bengals.
Which, if we stay in the “big picture” world, zoom out, and translate, really means that the Steelers are being judged by one game when we have 13 others to use as a foundation for the pick. Most importantly, the oddsmakers had those same 13 games at their disposal and still made Pittsburgh the favorite.
There’s a reason: the Steelers should win the game.
Why, then, the switching of sides for the spread? Because of the most important factor in determining the number. That is, what people think about a team.
People were willing to bury the Steelers after last week’s game. The oddsmakers have to react simply to appease this notion with the spread, but we know what the “big picture,” overall story says. And we should always align ourselves with the side least subject to overreaction.
Prediction: Steelers +2.5 (-112)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys OVER 49.5 (-112)
I just wrote about avoiding overreaction in the Steelers and Colts pick, and I will now look for support from an offense that has finally started to show life. Dangerous? Maybe. But the Philadelphia Eagles aren’t the only team in action on Sunday. We also have the offense of the Dallas Cowboys, and it, too, has returned from the dead.
Timing always plays an important role in the National Football League, and the pick for this head-to-head matchup is another example of this. Had Philadelphia and Dallas met earlier, we could certainly not target the teams’ offenses, as both were still looking for answers. We know this because, conveniently, the two teams did meet earlier. The result? A 23-9 slapfest in which a defensive touchdown was needed for at least one team to break 20 points.
Suffice it to say, we now are looking at two completely different squads.
Again, at the risk of overreaction, this value comes largely from Philadelphia, where it continues to play solid, but not exceptional defense. The Eagles have now allowed at least 20 points in every single game, except one. They are hardly dismantled — which is a good sign for the competitive nature of the team — but they also don’t shut down opponents. Dallas should have no trouble reaching the same low barrier now that it has scored at least 30 points in three-of-its-last-four games — all wins, too.
I continue to write that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts might not be the answer for the team because of his talent, but his presence under center has brought a confidence to the offense that we didn’t see with Carson Wentz in his latter games. Turning 17-point outings into 24-point performances is enough to allow Philadelphia to help us hit the ‘over.’
Prediction: Eagles/Cowboys OVER 49.5 (-114)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots +7 (-112)
I touch upon ‘name-value’ whenever the New England Patriots are in action, as it is one of the most powerful and important elements with gauging a team against-the-spread. There’s another word for it, though: bias.
People are biased when they see the Patriots playing.
Most of the time, this bias is simple. It’s a quick look at a team that has seen tremendous success over the past two decades and, as a result, has an expectation of winning. In those cases, the Patriots are an easy pick. So they are picked. Easily.
Not anymore. Now, the opposite bias is being used.
Between the Buffalo Bills already clinching the AFC East and the struggles we have seen from New England that had led the team to elimination before Christmas, the Patriots are one of the easy ‘sells’ of the weekend. Indeed, they are playing at home in a Primetime game, but the seven-point spread is large and, in many people’s eyes, isn’t big enough.
The only problem with this straightforward approach? We’ve seen this play out before.
This year.
The Patriots were in the exact same position six weeks ago when hosting the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. New England basically limped into the game while Baltimore looked like a team trying to take the next step and send a message.
The latter part is important. The “send a message” is undoubtedly a narrative that we will continue to hear in the lead-up to Monday’s game.
Don’t forget, it didn’t matter when the Patriots beat the Ravens, and it probably won’t matter now.
New England’s struggles are real, and Buffalo’s surge is legitimate, but these two trends were intact throughout the majority of the season and past examples continue to produce close games. Even the last meeting between the Bills and Patriots was settled by only three points.
I’m looking for the Patriots to return home for the first time in four weeks and keep Buffalo within the confines of a large spread on national television.
Prediction: Patriots +7 (-112)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including Common Sports Betting Terms - or head to more advanced strategy - like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor - to learn more.
Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.