Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 10 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 9 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5-1 (+2.5 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 0-0 (used Week 9 as my “skip weekâ€)
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 61-48-2 (+7.21 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 10 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 10 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the Munich game, the Buccaneers are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 9, at 5 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| CAR | ATL | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| TB | SEA | -2.5 | -3.25 | -0.75 |
| BUF | MIN | -4.5 | -5.5 | -1 |
| TEN | DEN | -3 | -2 | 1 |
| MIA | CLE | -3.5 | -5 | -1.5 |
| PIT | NO | 2.5 | 0.75 | -1.75 |
| CHI | DET | -3 | -1.25 | 1.75 |
| NYG | HOU | -5 | -5.5 | -0.5 |
| KC | JAX | -9.5 | -11.5 | -2 |
| LV | IND | -6 | -7.25 | -1.25 |
| GB | DAL | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| LAR | ARI | -3 | -3.75 | -0.75 |
| SF | LAC | -7 | -5.75 | 1.25 |
| PHI | WAS | -11 | -11.25 | -0.25 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on four teams at their consensus lines.
- Dolphins -3.5 vs. Browns
- Steelers +2.5 vs. Saints
- Chiefs -9.5 vs. Jaguars
- Raiders -6 vs. Colts
Freedman’s Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
Check out our Browns at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Browns at Dolphins: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Dolphins -3.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -186, Browns +155
Browns at Dolphins: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Browns – 43% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Over – 78% bets, 87% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 22% bets, 80% money
Browns at Dolphins: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Browns ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 4-4 (-4.3% ROI)
- ML: 3-5 (-24.9% ROI)
Dolphins ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 4-5 (-14.6% ROI)
- ML: 6-3 (24.5% ROI)
Browns at Dolphins: Notable Trend
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: 10-4 ATS (36.8% ROI) at home
Browns at Dolphins: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Browns Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.083 | 7 | 0.067 | 25 | 18 |
| Total SR | 46.2% | 12 | 46.2% | 25 | 13 |
| Total DVOA | 16.2% | 5 | 10.1% | 27 | 22 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.071 | 14 | 0.152 | 29 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 45.3% | 18 | 50.5% | 28 | 10 |
| Pass DVOA | 22.5% | 8 | 24.2% | 31 | 23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.5% | 13 | 5.3% | 26 | 13 |
| Rush EPA | 0.099 | 1 | -0.086 | 9 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 47.2% | 3 | 38.3% | 6 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.9% | 2 | -10.4% | 7 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.80 | 7 | 3.98 | 4 | -3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.8 | 24 | 14 |
| Points per Game | 25 | 7 | 24.9 | 24 | 17 |
Dolphins Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.103 | 4 | 0.085 | 28 | 24 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 44.3% | 17 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 21.9% | 2 | 7.6% | 24 | 22 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.217 | 3 | 0.061 | 16 | 13 |
| Dropback SR | 50.1% | 6 | 44.6% | 12 | 6 |
| Pass DVOA | 49.2% | 1 | 8.6% | 18 | 17 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.8% | 8 | 7.8% | 14 | 6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.116 | 28 | 0.120 | 32 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 22 | 43.9% | 25 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -6.3% | 21 | 6.5% | 30 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.24 | 22 | 4.79 | 27 | 5 |
| Yards per Play | 6.3 | 2 | 5.6 | 19 | 17 |
| Points per Game | 23.7 | 10 | 24.9 | 24 | 14 |
Browns at Dolphins: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jacoby Brissett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.112 | 8 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 61.5 | 7 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 20 |
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.5
- QB Elo per Game: -29.6
2022: Tua Tagovailoa
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.219 | 1 |
| AY/A | 9.9 | 1 |
| QBR | 80.2 | 1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.3 | 7 |
Career: Tua Tagovailoa
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 13.5
Key Matchup: Dolphins Rush Defense vs. Browns Rush Offense
The Browns offense is built on their rushing attack, which is one of the best in the league. The problem is that the Dolphins are top-10 against the run.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.099 | 1 | -0.086 | 9 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 0.472 | 3 | 0.383 | 6 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.159 | 2 | -0.104 | 7 | 5 |
DTs Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler both have strong PFF run defense grades (71.3 and 79.8 respectively), and the Browns could be without RG Wyatt Teller (calf), who hasn’t played since leaving Week 6 early with an injury.
If the Browns can’t run the ball with their usual success, they will struggle to sustain drives, score points and keep the explosive Dolphins offense on the sideline.
Best Line: Dolphins -3.5 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Dolphins -5
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers
Check out our Saints at Steelers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: FOX
Saints at Steelers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Saints -2.5
- Over/Under: 40
- Moneyline: Saints -134, Steelers +118
Saints at Steelers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Saints – 38% bets, 51% money
- Over/Under: Under – 72% bets, 96% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 83% bets, 96% money
Saints at Steelers: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Saints ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-6 (-36.2% ROI)
- ML: 3-6 (-45.7% ROI)
Steelers ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-4-1 (-15.2% ROI)
- ML: 2-6 (3.1% ROI)
Saints at Steelers: Notable Trends
- Steelers HC Mike Tomlin: 64-56-4 ATS (4.6% ROI) at home
- Steelers HC Mike Tomlin: 48-26-3 ATS (26.0% ROI) as underdog
- Steelers HC Mike Tomlin: 15-3-3 ATS (53.4% ROI) as home underdog
Saints at Steelers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Saints Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.005 | 16 | 0.074 | 26 | 10 |
| Total SR | 48.8% | 3 | 44.9% | 20 | 17 |
| Total DVOA | -4.7% | 21 | 3.2% | 20 | -1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.025 | 17 | 0.118 | 27 | 10 |
| Dropback SR | 49.9% | 7 | 47.1% | 23 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | -2.7% | 24 | 10.9% | 21 | -3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 11 | 5.6% | 22 | 11 |
| Rush EPA | -0.026 | 12 | -0.001 | 24 | 12 |
| Rush SR | 47.2% | 3 | 41.1% | 12 | 9 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.0% | 6 | -7.9% | 11 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.90 | 4 | 4.34 | 13 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 6 | 5.9 | 28 | 22 |
| Points per Game | 23.6 | 11 | 24.6 | 23 | 12 |
Steelers Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.081 | 28 | 0.007 | 16 | -12 |
| Total SR | 41.7% | 25 | 43.0% | 12 | -13 |
| Total DVOA | -10.6% | 24 | -0.7% | 16 | -8 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.109 | 30 | 0.089 | 22 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 42.9% | 26 | 45.3% | 13 | -13 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.5% | 22 | 2.3% | 12 | -10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 12 | 7.3% | 17 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.023 | 11 | -0.111 | 6 | -5 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 22 | 39.7% | 9 | -13 |
| Rush DVOA | -18.1% | 28 | -4.4% | 16 | -12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.22 | 24 | 4.48 | 16 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 31 | 5.3 | 10 | -21 |
| Points per Game | 15 | 31 | 25.2 | 28 | -3 |
Saints at Steelers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.098 | 10 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 11 |
| QBR | 49.7 | 19 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.1 | 27 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -6.6
2022: Kenny Pickett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 3.9 | 35 |
| QBR | 36.7 | 26 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.7 | 35 |
Career: Kenny Pickett
- AY/A: 3.9
- QB Elo per Game: -41.5
Key Matchup: Steelers Defensive Line vs. Saints Offensive Line
Coming out of the Week 9 bye, the Steelers are “optimistic†that All-Pro EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR) will return for this matchup.
With Watt on the perimeter and DTs Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi on the interior, the Steelers have a top-eight defensive line, while the Saints might be without the entire left side of their offensive line: LT Trevor Penning (foot, IR) is out, LG Andrus Peat (tricep) missed practice on Wednesday with a new injury and C Erik McCoy (calf) exited Week 9 early.
If the Saints are unable to win in the offensive trenches, they will likely struggle passing and running.
Best Line: Steelers +2.5 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +0.75
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Jaguars at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: CBS
Jaguars at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -9.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -435, Steelers +360
Jaguars at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Chiefs – 82% bets, 86% money
- Over/Under: Under – 48% bets, 76% money
- Moneyline: Chiefs – 98% bets, 99% money
Jaguars at Chiefs: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Jaguars ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-6 (-36.5% ROI)
- ML: 3-6 (-13.2% ROI)
Chiefs ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-27.8% ROI)
- ML: 6-2 (15.6% ROI)
Jaguars at Chiefs: Notable Trends
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: 8-18 ATS (32.3% ROI for faders)
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: 6-20 ML (35.2% ROI for faders)
Jaguars at Chiefs: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jaguars Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.051 | 10 | 0.037 | 21 | 11 |
| Total SR | 48.0% | 6 | 45.0% | 22 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 6.6% | 11 | 7.4% | 23 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.121 | 7 | 0.081 | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback SR | 51.6% | 3 | 46.1% | 18 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 20.6% | 9 | 12.8% | 24 | 15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 4 | 8.3% | 9 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.043 | 18 | -0.054 | 18 | 0 |
| Rush SR | 43.1% | 11 | 42.8% | 20 | 9 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 18 | -1.8% | 20 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.16 | 26 | 4.86 | 28 | 2 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.5 | 15 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 22.1 | 18 | 23.6 | 20 | 2 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.19 | 1 | -0.003 | 15 | 14 |
| Total SR | 48.5% | 5 | 42.7% | 10 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | 22.0% | 1 | 6.3% | 22 | 21 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.282 | 1 | 0.032 | 12 | 11 |
| Dropback SR | 52.5% | 1 | 44.5% | 11 | 10 |
| Pass DVOA | 38.7% | 2 | 15.5% | 27 | 25 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.9% | 5 | 4.3% | 31 | 26 |
| Rush EPA | -0.031 | 14 | -0.061 | 13 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 38.8% | 25 | 39.8% | 10 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.3% | 19 | -5.5% | 14 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.21 | 25 | 4.06 | 5 | -20 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 3 | 5.4 | 13 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 30.4 | 1 | 19.8 | 10 | 9 |
Jaguars at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Trevor Lawrence
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.085 | 13 |
| AY/A | 6.6 | 18 |
| QBR | 50.9 | 17 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.2 | 15 |
Career: Trevor Lawrence
- AY/A: 5.6
- QB Elo per Game: -34.4
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.177 | 2 |
| AY/A | 8.3 | 3 |
| QBR | 75.4 | 2 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 5.4 | 1 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.6
- QB Elo per Game: 120.3
Key Matchup: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Jaguars Safeties & Linebackers
As I note in my Week 10 fantasy favorites piece, Kelce has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. He leads all tight ends in targets (77), red-zone targets (16) and plays of 20-plus yards (10, per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
He easily leads the Chiefs in receptions (57), yards receiving (659) and touchdowns (664).
Regardless of matchup, he tends to dominate — and he has an incredible matchup, as the Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (31.5%). On top of that, SS Rayshawn Jenkins (concussion) is in the league’s protocol and missed practice Wednesday.
As for the other Jaguars safeties, Andre Cisco almost never plays in the box, and Andrew Wingard is primarily a special-teamer.
At linebacker, Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun are utter liabilities. Together, they’ve been targeted 95 times and allowed 807 yards on 78 receptions (per PFF).
Even in triple coverage, Kelce will be open against these defenders.
If the Jaguars can’t contain Kelce, they seem unlikely to limit the Chiefs offense.
Best Line: Chiefs -9.5 (-105, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -11.5
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders
Check out our Colts at Raiders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Colts at Raiders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -6
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -250, Colts +205
Colts at Raiders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Raiders – 65% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Under – 79% bets, 97% money
- Moneyline: Colts – 19% bets, 86% money
Colts at Raiders: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Colts ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-6 (-36.6% ROI)
- ML: 3-5-1 (-8.4% ROI)
Raiders ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-27.4% ROI)
- ML: 2-6 (-62.2% ROI)
Colts at Raiders: Notable Trends
- Colts QB Sam Ehlinger: 0-2 ATS (93.1% ROI for faders)
- Colts QB Sam Ehlinger: 0-2 ML (87.8% ROI for faders)
Colts at Raiders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Colts Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.148 | 32 | 0.089 | 30 | -2 |
| Total SR | 40.4% | 28 | 48.1% | 29 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | -29.0% | 32 | 15.8% | 32 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.103 | 29 | 0.233 | 31 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 43.9% | 23 | 52.2% | 30 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | -23.6% | 31 | 30.8% | 32 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.5% | 29 | 4.6% | 30 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.242 | 31 | -0.132 | 5 | -26 |
| Rush SR | 33.2% | 31 | 41.7% | 15 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -29.8% | 32 | -3.2% | 17 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.29 | 11 | -20 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 30 | 5.8 | 24 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 14.7 | 32 | 25.1 | 27 | -5 |
Raiders Offense vs. Colts Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.031 | 13 | -0.041 | 9 | -4 |
| Total SR | 43.5% | 19 | 43.7% | 15 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | -0.9% | 18 | -4.7% | 11 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.082 | 12 | 0.041 | 13 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 43.6% | 24 | 47.5% | 25 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 3.2% | 20 | 7.0% | 17 | -3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 15 | 7.7% | 15 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.067 | 23 | -0.146 | 4 | -19 |
| Rush SR | 43.3% | 10 | 38.9% | 8 | -2 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 9 | -17.8% | 5 | -4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.28 | 1 | 3.75 | 2 | 1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5 | 6 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 22.9 | 14 | 20.3 | 13 | -1 |
Colts at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Sam Ehlinger
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -5.5 | 45 |
Career: Sam Ehlinger
- AY/A: 5.0
- QB Elo per Game: -172.6
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.084 | 14 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 15 |
| QBR | 58.6 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 20 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 13.0
Key Matchup: Raiders Rush Defense vs. Colts Rush Offense
For the Colts, interim HC Jeff Saturday has never coached an NFL or college game or served on an NFL or college staff. The Ted Lasso vibes around Saturday and this organization are unreal.
Interim OC Parks Frazier has never coordinated an offense or called plays at any level. And third string-turned-starting QB Sam Ehlinger has a sixth-round draft pedigree, just two starts and a 5.0 AY/A in the NFL.
I expect the Colts to be extremely conservative on offense. That means they’ll settle for field position and field goals.
Translation: They will be incredibly suboptimal as they “get back to basics.â€
To that end, I anticipate that the Colts will heavily lean on the running game, especially since No. 1 RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) returned to practice on Wednesday (albeit limitedly).
But here’s the problem: The Colts are terrible running the ball, the Raiders have no reason not to stack the box, and they’re already average at worst against the run.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.242 | 31 | -0.132 | 5 | -26 |
| Rush SR | 0.332 | 31 | 0.417 | 15 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.298 | 32 | -0.032 | 17 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.29 | 11 | -20 |
If the Raiders can’t shut down this tragicomedy of an offense and cover the spread, HC Josh McDaniels should be terminated immediately.
Best Line: Raiders -5.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Raiders -5.5 (-107)
Personal Projection: Raiders -7.25
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Seahawks
- Texans +6.5 at Giants
- Raiders -5.5 vs. Colts
- Cardinals +3.5 at Rams
- Chargers +7.5 at 49ers
Also in consideration are:
- Falcons -2.5 at Panthers
- Dolphins -3.5 vs. Browns
- Steelers +2.5 vs. Saints
- Vikings +4.5 at Bills
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (SUN. 11/13): Here’s the update.
Last week I “went†4-1 on the picks I decided to bypass with my skip week. Ugh.
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