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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

by October 6, 2022
Jaguars vs. Titans: NFL Week 18 Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

In this article each week, I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

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Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

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Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge
DEN IND -3.5 -3.5 0
GB NYG -8 -7.75 0.25
BUF PIT -14 -13.75 0.25
CLE LAC 2.5 2.25 -0.25
MIN CHI -7 -7.75 -0.75
WAS TEN 2.5 0.25 -2.25
JAX HOU -7 -6.25 0.75
NO SEA -5.5 -4.5 1
TB ATL -9 -9.5 -0.5
NYJ MIA 3 3 0
NE DET -3 -1 2
CAR SF 6.5 4.5 -2
ARI PHI 5.5 2.75 -2.75
LAR DAL -5.5 -6 -0.5
BAL CIN -3 -2.25 0.75
KC LV -7 -9 -2

 

Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.

  • Commanders +2.5 vs. Titans
  • Lions +3 at Patriots
  • Panthers +6.5 vs. 49ers
  • Cardinals +5.5 vs. Eagles
  • Chiefs -7 vs. Raiders

Freedman’s Week 5 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.


Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders

Check out our Titans at Commanders matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: FedExField
  • TV: CBS

Titans at Commanders: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Titans -2.5
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Moneyline: Titans -135, Commanders +115

Titans at Commanders: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

  • Spread: Titans – 78% bets, 89% money
  • Over/Under: Under – 34% bets, 44% money
  • Moneyline: Commanders – 16% bets, 39% money

Titans at Commanders: Injuries

Titans: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Ola Adeniyi OLB Neck DNP
Treylon Burks WR Toe DNP
Zach Cunningham ILB Elbow DNP
Bud Dupree OLB Hip DNP
Joe Jones LB Knee DNP
Tory Carter FB Neck LP
Amani Hooker S Concussion LP
Ugo Amadi SAF Ankle FP

 

Titans: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Chance Campbell LB IR
Trenton Cannon RB IR
Da’Shawn Hand DE IR
Chris Jackson DB IR
Jamarco Jones OL IR
Harold Landry III OLB IR
Taylor Lewan T IR
Racey McMath WR IR
Elijah Molden CB IR
A.J. Moore Jr S IR
Monty Rice LB IR
Caleb Shudak K PUP

 

Titans Injury News

Commanders: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Percy Butler S Quad DNP
Sam Cosmi OT Finger DNP
Jahan Dotson WR Hamstring DNP
Milo Eifler LB Hamstring DNP
Curtis Samuel WR Illness DNP
Charles Leno Jr. OT Shoulder LP
David Mayo LB Hamstring LP
William Jackson CB Back FP
Daniel Wise DT Ankle FP

 

Commanders: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Willie Beavers G IR
Curtis Hodges TE IR
Phidarian Mathis DT IR
Chase Roullier C IR
Wes Schweitzer G IR
Brian Robinson RB NFI
Tyler Larsen C PUP
Chase Young DE PUP

 

Commanders Injury News

Titans at Commanders: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Titans Trends

  • HC Mike Vrabel: 15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Mike Vrabel: 9-14 ATS (17.8% ROI for faders) following multiple wins in a row

Commanders Trends

  • Home Underdogs: 82-47-7 ATS (22.3% ROI) with three-game losing streak
  • Home Underdogs: 16-10-1 ATS (18.5% ROI) with 1-3 record in Week 5

Titans at Commanders: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Titans Offense vs. Commanders Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.033 19 0.044 20 1
Total SR 45.6% 15 40.5% 5 -10
Total DVOA 2.0% 14 8.2% 24 10
Dropback EPA 0.076 12 0.202 28 16
Dropback SR 50.0% 8 45.3% 17 9
Pass DVOA 29.0% 9 27.7% 30 21
Adj. Sack Rate 6.5% 18 8.2% 9 -9
Rush EPA -0.169 26 -0.222 4 -22
Rush SR 40.0% 17 32.3% 1 -16
Rush DVOA -14.6% 22 -21.5% 6 -16
Adj. Line Yards 4.39 18 3.94 7 -11
Yards per Play 5.2 19 6 25 6
Points per Game 18.8 21 26.8 29 8

 

Commanders Offense vs. Titans Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.104 30 0.101 30 0
Total SR 37.8% 30 43.0% 14 -16
Total DVOA -17.5% 28 7.0% 21 -7
Dropback EPA -0.086 27 0.199 27 0
Dropback SR 39.6% 28 48.2% 24 -4
Pass DVOA -9.2% 27 22.4% 26 -1
Adj. Sack Rate 10.1% 30 6.5% 15 -15
Rush EPA -0.147 25 -0.090 14 -11
Rush SR 33.3% 31 33.0% 3 -28
Rush DVOA -23.2% 27 -19.1% 8 -19
Adj. Line Yards 3.85 26 4.18 12 -14
Yards per Play 4.6 32 6.3 30 -2
Points per Game 18.3 25 25.3 25 0

 

Titans at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Ryan Tannehill

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.094 11
AY/A 7.4 13
QBR 47.8 18
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.4 19

 

Career: Ryan Tannehill

  • AY/A: 7.2
  • QB Elo per Game: -4.5

2022: Carson Wentz

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.01 28
AY/A 5.6 28
QBR 35.7 25
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.4 29

 

Career: Carson Wentz

  • AY/A: 6.8
  • QB Elo per Game: -5.9

Key Matchup: Commanders Defensive Line vs. Titans Offensive Line

Even without EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP), the Commanders defense has opened the season No. 9 in adjusted sack rate (8.2%) and top-eight in every key rush efficiency metric.

  • Rush EPA: -0.222 (No. 4)
  • Rush SR: 32.3% (No. 1)
  • Rush DVOA: -21.5% (No. 6)
  • Adj. Line Yards: 3.94 (No. 7)

Compare that to the Titans offense, which is not even average in adjusted sack rate or any rushing efficiency metric.

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Commanders defensive line as having a significant edge over the Titans offensive line.

Rank Defensive Line Opp OL OL Rank Edge
14 WAS TEN 27 13

 

For the Titans, QB Ryan Tannehill could be under pressure for much of the game and RB Derrick Henry might struggle to find open running lanes.

In the preseason market, this number was Commanders -0.5, and my projection is still fairly close to that number. They shouldn’t be favored, but they also shouldn’t be dogs of almost a field goal.

Best Line: Commanders +2.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Commanders +3 (-115)
Personal Projection:
Commanders +0.25
Limit: Commanders +2

Side Note: By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

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Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

Check out our Lions at Patriots matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: Gillette Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Lions at Patriots: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Patriots -3
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Moneyline: Patriots -159, Lions +140

Lions at Patriots: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

  • Spread: Patriots – 45% bets, 81% money
  • Over/Under: Over – 73% bets, 76% money
  • Moneyline: Patriots – 61% bets, 61% money

Lions at Patriots: Injuries

Lions: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Chris Board LB Knee DNP
Evan Brown C Ankle DNP
Quintez Cephus WR Foot DNP
D.J. Chark WR Ankle DNP
John Cominsky DE Wrist DNP
T.J. Hockenson TE Hip DNP
Frank Ragnow C Foot DNP
Josh Reynolds WR Ankle DNP
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Ankle DNP
D’Andre Swift RB Shoulder/Ankle DNP
Kayode Awosika OT Hamstring LP
Taylor Decker OT Knee LP
Jonah Jackson G Finger LP
Matt Nelson OT Cal LP
Austin Seibert K Right Groin LP

 

Lions: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Tommy Kraemer G IR
Levi Onwuzurike DL IR
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G IR
Tracy Walker III S IR
Jameson Williams WR NFI
Jason Cabinda FB PUP
Jerry Jacobs CB PUP
Romeo Okwara DL PUP
Josh Paschal DL PUP

 

Lions Injury News

Patriots: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Lawrence Guy DE Shoulder DNP
Brian Hoyer QB Concussion DNP
DaMarcus Mitchell DE Concussion DNP
Jonnu Smith TE Ankle DNP
Kyle Dugger S Knee LP
Mac Jones QB Ankle LP
Raekwon McMillan MLB Thumb LP
Jakobi Meyers WR Knee LP
Jalen Mills CB Hamstring LP
Adrian Phillips DB Ribs LP
Isaiah Wynn OT Hip LP

 

Patriots: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Yodny Cajuste OL IR
Ty Montgomery WR IR
Ronnie Perkins LB IR
Tyquan Thornton WR IR
Kristian Wilkerson WR IR
Joejuan Williams CB IR
Quinn Nordin K NFI
Andrew Stueber OL NFI
Malcolm Perry WR Retired
James White RB Retired

 

Patriots Injury News

Lions at Patriots: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Lions Trends

  • HC Dan Campbell: 14-6 ATS (33.9% ROI) as underdog
  • Road Underdogs: 179-145-10 ATS (6.4% ROI) off loss (since 2018, when sports betting was legalized)

Patriots Trends

  • Home Favorites: 140-173-9 ATS (7.7% ROI for faders) when having a losing record the year after making postseason
  • Home Favorites: 421-471-50 ATS (4.6% ROI for faders) with spread of no more than -3

Lions at Patriots: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Lions Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.111 8 0.048 22 14
Total SR 42.0% 21 46.9% 26 5
Total DVOA 15.0% 7 4.3% 19 12
Dropback EPA 0.119 11 0 11 0
Dropback SR 43.8% 21 43.4% 12 -9
Pass DVOA 24.0% 12 -2.7% 10 -2
Adj. Sack Rate 3.4% 2 8.4% 7 5
Rush EPA 0.098 2 0.119 29 27
Rush SR 39.3% 18 52.0% 31 13
Rush DVOA 12.5% 4 13.5% 31 27
Adj. Line Yards 5.10 4 4.64 21 17
Yards per Play 6.5 1 5.6 16 15
Points per Game 35 1 24.5 22 21

 

Patriots Offense vs. Lions Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.014 16 0.209 32 16
Total SR 48.1% 6 50.9% 31 25
Total DVOA -0.5% 18 18.8% 32 14
Dropback EPA -0.092 29 0.234 30 1
Dropback SR 46.1% 17 51.1% 28 11
Pass DVOA -11.1% 28 18.9% 24 -4
Adj. Sack Rate 8.2% 23 6.0% 21 -2
Rush EPA 0.095 3 0.163 32 29
Rush SR 51.0% 1 50.5% 28 27
Rush DVOA 23.6% 1 18.5% 32 31
Adj. Line Yards 5.22 1 4.75 24 23
Yards per Play 5.7 11 6.5 31 20
Points per Game 18.5 23 35.3 32 9

 

Lions at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jared Goff

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.086 13
AY/A 8 6
QBR 67.1 8
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.2 9

 

Career: Jared Goff

  • AY/A: 7.3
  • QB Elo per Game: 6.0

2022: Brian Hoyer

As a backup, QB Brian Hoyer (concussion) hasn’t played enough snaps to accumulate meaningful statistics this year. Additionally, he’s uncertain to play, although I think he’s likelier to suit up than starter Mac Jones (ankle), whose Week 3 injury was expected to sideline him for multiple weeks.

Career: Brian Hoyer

  • AY/A: 6.7
  • QB Elo per Game: -50.2

Key Matchup: Lions Rush Offense vs. Patriots Rush Defense

Even without No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), I expect the Lions to run successfully against the Patriots defense, which ranks No. 31 in both rush DVOA (13.5%) and rush SR (52.0%).

I’m not worried about the Wednesday DNP for C Frank Ragnow (foot), who last week was DNP for Wednesday, LP for Thursday and FP on Friday before not even showing up on the final injury report. He’s playing on Sunday.

And LG Jonah Jackson (finger) is trending in the right direction with his Wednesday LP after not practicing at all last week. He might actually suit up.

On the other side, the Patriots last week were without DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder), one of their main interior run stoppers. After suffering his injury in Week 3, he didn’t practice at all in Week 4, and his Wednesday DNP this week is a negative sign for his Week 5 availability.

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.

Rank Offensive Line Opp DL DL Rank Edge
3 DET NE 26 23

 

I expect the Lions to push the Patriots around and control the ball via the ground attack, which should keep this game close.

This line was Lions +1 in the lookahead market, and that’s where I have it projected now. Maybe the market believes that Patriots QB Mac Jones has a real shot to play this week, but I’m skeptical.

Best Line: Lions +3.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Lions +3 (-115)
Personal Projection:
Lions +1
Limit: Lions +3

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San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

Check out our 49ers at Panthers matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
  • Location: Bank of America Stadium
  • TV: CBS

49ers at Panthers: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: 49ers -6.5
  • Over/Under: 39
  • Moneyline: 49ers -275, Panthers +235

49ers at Panthers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

  • Spread: 49ers – 75% bets, 76% money
  • Over/Under: Under – 50% bets, 71% money
  • Moneyline: Panthers – 18% bets, 38% money

49ers at Panthers: Injuries

49ers: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Trent Williams OT Ankle DNP
Colton McKivitz OT Knee DNP
Tyrion Davis-Price RB Ankle DNP
Tyler Kroft TE Knee DNP
Arik Armstead DT Foot, Ankle DNP
Javon Kinlaw DT Knee DNP
Tarvarius Moore DB Hamstring DNP
Nick Bosa DE Rest DNP
Ross Dwelley TE Rib LP
Jauan Jennings WR Ankle LP

 

49ers: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Azeez Al-Shaair LB IR
Maurice Hurst DL IR
Trey Lance QB IR
Jordan Matthews TE IR
Elijah Mitchell RB IR
Curtis Robinson LB IR
Jimmie Ward DB IR
Jordan Willis DL IR
Kalia Davis DL NFI
Jason Verrett CB PUP

 

49ers Injury News

Panthers: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Christian McCaffrey RB Rest DNP
Laviska Shenault Jr. WR Hamstring DNP
Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Thigh DNP
Xavier Woods S Hamstring DNP
Marquis Haynes DE Knee LP
Frankie Luvu OLB Shoulder LP
Shaq Thompson OLB Knee LP
Stephen Sullivan TE Back FP

 

Panthers: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Jeremy Chinn S IR
Matt Corral QB IR
Sam Darnold QB IR
Zane Gonzalez K IR
Andre Roberts WR IR
Bravvion Roy DT IR
Julian Stanford LB IR

 

Panthers Injury News

49ers at Panthers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

49ers Trends

  • HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-26-1 ATS (18.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Kyle Shanahan: 19-24 ML (25.8% ROI for faders) as favorite

Panthers Trends

  • QB Baker Mayfield: 8-4 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog off loss
  • Underdogs: 33-24-2 ATS (12.4% ROI) when playing third consecutive home game

49ers at Panthers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

49ers Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.041 20 -0.05 10 -10
Total SR 39.8% 27 41.4% 7 -20
Total DVOA -7.4% 21 -0.9% 12 -9
Dropback EPA 0.006 18 0.022 12 -6
Dropback SR 41.4% 25 42.4% 9 -16
Pass DVOA 12.0% 16 10.0% 19 3
Adj. Sack Rate 6.3% 15 3.9% 31 16
Rush EPA -0.090 20 -0.154 9 -11
Rush SR 38.2% 24 39.8% 15 -9
Rush DVOA -16.6% 24 -14.1% 10 -14
Adj. Line Yards 4.09 21 4.46 16 -5
Yards per Play 5.5 14 5 8 -6
Points per Game 17.8 27 21.3 13 -14

 

Panthers Offense vs. 49ers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.147 32 -0.177 1 -31
Total SR 37.6% 31 37.1% 1 -30
Total DVOA -22.7% 31 -29.5% 1 -30
Dropback EPA -0.188 32 -0.184 3 -29
Dropback SR 33.8% 32 39.6% 2 -30
Pass DVOA -31.3% 31 -26.7% 4 -27
Adj. Sack Rate 9.3% 28 10.0% 3 -25
Rush EPA -0.073 18 -0.165 8 -10
Rush SR 44.3% 11 32.6% 2 -9
Rush DVOA -4.4% 16 -33.3% 1 -15
Adj. Line Yards 4.73 8 3.32 1 -7
Yards per Play 4.9 27 3.8 1 -26
Points per Game 19.5 17 11.5 1 -16

 

49ers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jimmy Garoppolo

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.07 18
AY/A 8 6
QBR 33.2 27
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.5 21

 

Career: Jimmy Garoppolo

  • AY/A: 8.1
  • QB Elo per Game: -7.6

2022: Baker Mayfield

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE -0.048 32
AY/A 5.9 24
QBR 15.3 32
ATS Value vs. Avg. -2.8 35

 

Career: Baker Mayfield

  • AY/A: 6.9
  • QB Elo per Game: -40.3

Key Matchup: Panthers Rush Defense vs. 49ers Rush Offense

The Panthers are an easy team to overlook because of the collective incompetence of HC Matt Rhule, OC Ben McAdoo and QB Baker Mayfield, but they’re actually good on defense.

They’re top-12 against both the pass and the run.

  • Pass EPA: 0.022 (No. 12)
  • Rush EPA: -0.154 (No. 9)

Their run defense especially should help them keep this contest close, as the 49ers offense is No. 6 in rush rate (51.7%) and heavily predicated on the run game, which they haven’t been able to do well, ranking no better than No. 20 in any rushing efficiency metric.

  • Rush EPA: -0.090 (No. 20)
  • Rush SR: 38.2% (No. 24)
  • Rush DVOA: -16.6% (No. 24)
  • Adj. Line Yards: 4.09 (No. 21)

The 49ers running game should be especially hampered by their injuries. Not only are they without No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR), backup RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and running QB Trey Lance (leg), but they are also highly likely to be without starting LT Trent Williams (ankle) and backup LT Colton McKivitz (knee).

This number was Panthers +3 in the lookahead market just a week ago. Not enough has changed from then to now to justify the line movement we’ve seen.

Best Line: Panthers +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Panthers +6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Panthers +4.5
Limit: Panthers +6

Note: I already have a position on this game of 49ers -3 (-110) via the lookahead line, but given my current projection and the range between 49ers -3 and Panthers +6.5, I think it’s worth adding to my original position in an attempt to middle. 

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Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Check out our Eagles at Cardinals matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
  • Location: State Farm Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Eagles at Cardinals: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Eagles -5.5
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Moneyline: Eagles -230, Cardinals +195

Eagles at Cardinals: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

  • Spread: Eagles – 50% bets, 76% money
  • Over/Under: Over – 71% bets, 71% money
  • Moneyline: Cardinals – 56% bets, 85% money

Eagles at Cardinals: Injuries

Eagles: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Jake Elliott K Right Ankle DNP
Kyron Johnson LB Concussion DNP
Patrick Johnson LB Concussion DNP
Avonte Maddox CB Ankle DNP
Jordan Mailata OT Shoulder DNP
Boston Scott RB Rib LP
Isaac Seumalo G Ankle LP
Darius Slay CB Forearm FP

 

Eagles: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Derek Barnett DE IR
Andre Dillard T IR
Jaeden Graham TE IR
Greg Ward WR IR
Tyree Jackson TE PUP
Brett Toth T/G PUP

 

Eagles Injury News

Cardinals: Week 5 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Kelvin Beachum OT NIR-Rest DNP
Marquise Brown WR Foot DNP
Zach Ertz TE NIR-Rest DNP
Max Garcia G Toe DNP
Rodney Hudson C Knee DNP
Rashard Lawrence NT Hand DNP
Matt Prater K Right Hip DNP
Justin Pugh G Elbow DNP
Nick Vigil OLB Hamstring DNP
Maxx Williams TE Knee DNP
Zaven Collins ILB Shoulder LP
A.J. Green WR Knee LP
D.J. Humphries OT Hamstring LP
Zeke Turner LB Ankle LP
J.J. Watt DE Calf LP

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Tae Daley S IR
Cody Ford OL IR
Marquis Hayes OL IR
Joshua Miles OL IR
Charles Washington S IR
Antonio Hamilton CB IR
Colt McCoy QB IR
Antoine Wesley WR IR
DeAndre Hopkins WR Suspended

 

Cardinals Injury News

Eagles at Cardinals: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Cardinals Trends

  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 20-9-2 ATS (32.0% ROI) as underdog
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 16-14-1 ML (43.6% ROI) as underdog

Eagles at Cardinals: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Eagles Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.12 5 0.047 21 16
Total SR 46.1% 13 48.1% 29 16
Total DVOA 17.9% 4 11.3% 29 25
Dropback EPA 0.198 4 0.19 26 22
Dropback SR 46.3% 16 52.6% 31 15
Pass DVOA 39.9% 4 24.1% 28 24
Adj. Sack Rate 7.1% 20 3.1% 32 12
Rush EPA 0.025 6 -0.226 3 -3
Rush SR 45.8% 8 39.5% 13 5
Rush DVOA 7.3% 6 -13.9% 11 5
Adj. Line Yards 4.44 16 4.56 18 2
Yards per Play 6.1 5 6.1 27 22
Points per Game 28.8 4 25.8 28 24

 

Cardinals Offense vs. Eagles Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.011 15 -0.153 2 -13
Total SR 43.5% 19 42.9% 13 -6
Total DVOA -8.5% 22 -24.8% 3 -19
Dropback EPA -0.014 20 -0.204 1 -19
Dropback SR 42.2% 22 41.0% 3 -19
Pass DVOA -6.9% 25 -36.8% 2 -23
Adj. Sack Rate 5.5% 9 10.1% 2 -7
Rush EPA -0.004 11 -0.028 22 11
Rush SR 46.4% 7 47.3% 26 19
Rush DVOA -1.4% 14 -1.0% 23 9
Adj. Line Yards 4.65 12 4.57 19 7
Yards per Play 4.8 28 4.5 3 -25
Points per Game 22 14 17.8 9 -5

 

Eagles at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jalen Hurts

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.133 6
AY/A 9 2
QBR 60.7 10
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.6 8

 

Career: Jalen Hurts

  • AY/A: 7.4
  • QB Elo per Game: 46.9

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.034 25
AY/A 5.8 25
QBR 48.4 17
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.0 7

 

Career: Kyler Murray

  • AY/A: 7.0
  • QB Elo per Game: 65.7

Key Matchup: Cardinals Rush Offense vs. Eagles Rush Defense

The Cardinals have been something of a joke under HC Kliff Kingsbury with their “horizontal raid” passing attack — but they’ve also always been able to run the ball well, given that QB Kyler Murray is a strong scrambler and the offense forces defenses to spread out.

And on defense the Eagles have continued to struggle against the run despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft).

This year the Cardinals offense has outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rush efficiency metric.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA -0.004 11 -0.028 22 11
Rush SR 46.4% 7 47.3% 26 19
Rush DVOA -1.4% 14 -1.0% 23 9
Adj. Line Yards 4.65 12 4.57 19 7

 

If a home team can run the ball with success, it has a good chance to cover, whether it’s a favorite or an underdog.

In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2.5. They have underperformed expectations to open the year, and the Eagles have outperformed, but not enough for this line to move eight points in just four games.

Best Line: Cardinals +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Cardinals +6 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Cardinals +2.75
Limit: Cardinals +5

DraftKings NFL Offer


Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Check out our Raiders at Chiefs matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • TV: ESPN

Raiders at Chiefs: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Chiefs -7
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -330, Raiders +275

Raiders at Chiefs: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

  • Spread: Chiefs – 79% bets, 81% money
  • Over/Under: Over – 74% bets, 94% money
  • Moneyline: Chiefs – 53% bets, 94% money

Raiders at Chiefs: Injuries

Raiders: Week 5 Injury Report

No injury report as of writing.

Raiders: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Anthony Averett CB IR
Jordan Jenkins DE IR
Micah Kiser LB IR
Sincere McCormick RB IR
Brandon Parker T IR
DJ Turner WR IR

 

Raiders Injury News

Chiefs: Week 5 Injury Report

No injury report as of writing.

Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Blake Bell TE IR
Trent McDuffie CB IR
Justyn Ross WR IR
Lucas Niang OL PUP
Jerrion Ealy WR/RB Suspended
Willie Gay LB Suspended

 

Chiefs Injury News

Raiders at Chiefs: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Chiefs Trends

  • HC Andy Reid: 33-21-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) in division (with Chiefs)
  • QB Patrick Mahomes: 14-9-1 ATS (17.6% ROI) in primetime (including playoffs)

Raiders at Chiefs: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Raiders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.018 12 0.001 13 1
Total SR 44.5% 16 47.0% 27 11
Total DVOA -6.0% 20 2.0% 14 -6
Dropback EPA 0.039 16 0.038 15 -1
Dropback SR 46.4% 15 48.7% 25 10
Pass DVOA 1.0% 21 13.5% 21 0
Adj. Sack Rate 6.5% 19 7.2% 11 -8
Rush EPA -0.026 14 -0.101 11 -3
Rush SR 40.7% 15 42.5% 21 6
Rush DVOA -0.8% 13 -22.8% 5 -8
Adj. Line Yards 5.19 2 3.82 5 3
Yards per Play 5.6 12 5 8 -4
Points per Game 24 10 24 20 10

 

Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.211 1 0.021 17 16
Total SR 50.4% 1 44.5% 19 18
Total DVOA 17.6% 5 5.0% 20 15
Dropback EPA 0.32 1 0.159 23 22
Dropback SR 54.4% 2 45.6% 19 17
Pass DVOA 35.0% 7 15.0% 22 15
Adj. Sack Rate 4.1% 3 5.2% 28 25
Rush EPA 0.018 7 -0.210 6 -1
Rush SR 43.3% 12 42.7% 22 10
Rush DVOA -6.5% 17 -7.9% 16 -1
Adj. Line Yards 4.67 10 4.08 9 -1
Yards per Play 6 6 5.8 21 15
Points per Game 32.3 2 25 23 21

 

Raiders at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Derek Carr

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.076 16
AY/A 6.4 20
QBR 55.2 13
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.0 17

 

Career: Derek Carr

  • AY/A: 7.1
  • QB Elo per Game: 14.3

2022: Patrick Mahomes

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.197 2
AY/A 8.5 3
QBR 82.3 1
ATS Value vs. Avg. 4.5 2

 

Career: Patrick Mahomes

  • AY/A: 8.7
  • QB Elo per Game: 117.1

Key Matchup: Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

For a team to cover a big spread, it usually needs to be able to move the ball through the air so that it can score a lot of points quickly. And with QB Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs can do that. Even without WR Tyreek Hill, they’re top-eight in all the key pass efficiency metrics this year — and the Raiders defense very much isn’t.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback EPA 0.32 1 0.159 23 22
Dropback SR 54.4% 2 45.6% 19 17
Pass DVOA 35.0% 7 15.0% 22 15
Adj. Sack Rate 4.1% 3 5.2% 28 25

 

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see Mahomes as having a massive edge over the Raiders defense in general and the secondary in particular.

Rank Quarterback Offense Opp Defense Defense Rank Secondary Rank QB-Def Edge QB-Sec Edge
2 Patrick Mahomes II KC LV 25 29 23 27

 

The Chiefs should be able to score at will.

Best Line: Chiefs -7 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Chiefs -9
Limit: Chiefs -7


Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

  • Commanders +2.5 vs. Titans
  • Lions +2.5 at Patriots
  • Panthers +6.5 vs. 49ers
  • Cardinals +5.5 vs. Eagles
  • Chiefs -7.5 vs. Raiders

I don’t love that I’m off the key numbers of +3 and -7 with the Lions and Chiefs. I might pivot away from those picks.

Also in consideration are:

  • Giants +8.5 at Packers (in London)
  • Browns +3.5 vs. Chargers
  • Texans +7.5 at Jaguars
  • Seahawks +5.5 at Saints
  • Jets +3.5 vs. Dolphins
  • Steelers +14.5 at Bills
  • Rams -4.5 vs. Cowboys
  • Bengals +3.5 at Ravens

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

UPDATE (Sun. 10/9): Here’s the tweet.


Week 4 Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.79 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 1-4

Year-to-Date Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 27-20-1 (+5.07 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 12-8

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