Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 12 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Week 11 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5 (+2.55 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 77-63-2 (+7.9 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 28-22
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 12 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 11 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the Mexico game, the Cardinals are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 23, at 4 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DET | BUF | 9.5 | 7.75 | -1.75 |
| DAL | NYG | -10 | -8.5 | 1.5 |
| MIN | NE | -2.5 | -2 | 0.5 |
| CAR | DEN | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| MIA | HOU | -13.5 | -13.75 | -0.25 |
| NYJ | CHI | -4.5 | -3.75 | 0.75 |
| CLE | TB | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
| JAX | BAL | 4 | 2.75 | -1.25 |
| WAS | ATL | -4.5 | -2.5 | 2 |
| TEN | CIN | 2 | 0.5 | -1.5 |
| ARI | LAC | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| SEA | LV | -3.5 | -4.5 | -1 |
| KC | LAR | -14.5 | -14.25 | 0.25 |
| SF | NO | -9.5 | -8 | 1.5 |
| PHI | GB | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 |
| IND | PIT | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Falcons +4.5 at Commanders
- Titans +2 vs. Bengals
- Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders
Freedman’s Week 12 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Check out our Falcons at Commanders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: FOX
Falcons at Commanders: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.
- Spread: Falcons +4.5
- Betting Percentages: Commanders – 56% bets, 75% money
Falcons at Commanders: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Falcons ATS: 7-4 (21.6% ROI)
- Commanders ATS: 6-4-1 (13.1% ROI)
Falcons at Commanders: Notable Trend
- QB Marcus Mariota: 6-2 ATS (43.3% ROI) as underdog with Falcons
Falcons at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Falcons Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 15 | -0.051 | 7 | -8 |
| Total SR | 46.5% | 11 | 40.1% | 2 | -9 |
| Total DVOA | 6.3% | 12 | -5.8% | 12 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.055 | 15 | 0.01 | 9 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 48.6% | 10 | 42.7% | 4 | -6 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.9% | 15 | 5.3% | 16 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.6% | 30 | 7.9% | 12 | -18 |
| Rush EPA | -0.005 | 6 | -0.156 | 3 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 44.4% | 5 | 35.5% | 4 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.1% | 8 | -22.0% | 2 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.84 | 4 | 4.09 | 7 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 16 | 5.2 | 9 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 23.5 | 12 | 20.3 | 12 | 0 |
Commanders Offense vs. Falcons Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.061 | 25 | 0.079 | 28 | 3 |
| Total SR | 40.7% | 28 | 49.0% | 31 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | -13.1% | 27 | 10.8% | 28 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.051 | 26 | 0.129 | 28 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 42.4% | 28 | 52.0% | 30 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.8% | 28 | 18.4% | 28 | 0 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.3% | 20 | 4.6% | 30 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | -0.076 | 22 | 0.006 | 26 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 38.3% | 25 | 44.6% | 26 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.9% | 25 | 1.2% | 24 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.09 | 28 | 4.77 | 27 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.9 | 28 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 19.5 | 23 | 24.9 | 27 | 4 |
Falcons at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Marcus Mariota
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.087 | 15 |
| AY/A | 7.3 | 11 |
| QBR | 57.1 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 27 |
Career: Marcus Mariota
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -13.6
2022: Taylor Heinicke
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.054 | 23 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 23 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.6 | 34 |
Career: Taylor Heinicke
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: -36.0
Key Takeaway: These Teams Are Even
Many power ratings have these two teams as close to even. For example …
- Football Power Index: Commanders, -1.3 | Falcons -1.6
- Massey-Peabody Rankings: Commanders, -1.78 | Falcons -1.98
- NFElo Power Ratings: Commanders, -1.8 | Falcons -1.9
In my personal power ratings (before taking Week 12-specific injuries into account), I have the Commanders at -2 and the Falcons at -3 relative to an average team on a neutral field.
There’s not much that separates these teams, and they match up evenly.
On offense, the Commanders are No. 27 in DVOA; on defense, the Falcons are No. 28.
On defense, the Commanders are No. 12 in DVOA; on offense, the Falcons are also No. 12.
In the running and passing games, no large edges present themselves for either team.
And it’s not as if the Commanders have a remarkable home-field advantage.
I don’t see why this line should be above the key number of +3.
Best Line: Falcons +4.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Falcons +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Check out our Bengals at Titans matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- TV: CBS
Bengals at Titans: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.
- Spread: Titans +2
- Betting Percentages: Bengals – 39% bets, 83% money
Bengals at Titans: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Bengals ATS: 7-3 (33.6% ROI)
- Titans ATS: 8-2 (54.1% ROI)
Bengals at Titans: Notable Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 22-12 ATS (24.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 9-4 ATS (32.8% ROI) as home underdog
Bengals at Titans: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bengals Offense vs. Titans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.108 | 4 | -0.024 | 12 | 8 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 40.1% | 2 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | 9.0% | 8 | -8.6% | 9 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.179 | 4 | 0.035 | 12 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 50.8% | 5 | 43.6% | 8 | 3 |
| Pass DVOA | 20.2% | 10 | 2.5% | 13 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.6% | 23 | 7.3% | 18 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.034 | 12 | -0.168 | 1 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 44.1% | 7 | 31.4% | 1 | -6 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.1% | 9 | -31.2% | 1 | -8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.50 | 14 | 3.45 | 1 | -13 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5.4 | 14 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 26.5 | 3 | 18.5 | 8 | 5 |
Titans Offense vs. Bengals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.009 | 21 | -0.025 | 11 | -10 |
| Total SR | 43.2% | 19 | 42.4% | 9 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | 0.0% | 18 | -4.3% | 13 | -5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.064 | 14 | -0.033 | 7 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 47.3% | 13 | 42.7% | 4 | -9 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.5% | 12 | -3.0% | 10 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.2% | 27 | 4.9% | 28 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.083 | 25 | -0.013 | 24 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 38.9% | 23 | 41.9% | 17 | -6 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.1% | 14 | -5.8% | 16 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.64 | 7 | 4.53 | 20 | 13 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 19 | 5.3 | 12 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 19.3 | 24 | 21.5 | 15 | -9 |
Bengals at Titans: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Joe Burrow
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.142 | 5 |
| AY/A | 8 | 7 |
| QBR | 55.7 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.7 | 5 |
Career: Joe Burrow
- AY/A: 8.0
- QB Elo per Game: 36.8
2022: Ryan Tannehill
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.106 | 10 |
| AY/A | 8.2 | 6 |
| QBR | 53.1 | 16 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 23 |
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -4.8
Key Takeaway: The Titans Have the Peripheral Edge
I have the Bengals rated two points higher (before adjusting for Week 12-specific injuries) — but the Titans have a few factors in their favor.
First, they have three extra days of rest after playing last week on Thursday Night Football — and HC Mike Vrabel is 9-0 ATS with 10-plus days between games in the regular season.
Additionally, Vrabel’s Titans have been strong as underdogs (22-12 ATS), as noted above, and they’ve been especially strong as home dogs (9-4 ATS).
Finally, the Titans have had an unreal home-field advantage of 7.02 points over the past 16 weeks (per NFElo). Now, I’m certainly not assigning them a home-field advantage that strong. Regression will strike eventually.
But Nissan Stadium has not been an easy place to play for visitors since the Titans’ stretch run last year, and that shouldn’t be ignored.
Put all of that together, and I have this game as close to a pick’em.
Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-112, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-112)
Personal Projection: Titans +0.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Check out our Raiders at Seahawks matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Lumen Field
- TV: CBS
Raiders at Seahawks: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.
- Spread: Seahawks -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Seahawks – 68% bets, 71% money
Raiders at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Raiders ATS: 4-6 (-22.1% ROI)
- Seahawks ATS: 6-4 (14.2% ROI)
Raiders at Seahawks: Notable Trend
- QB Geno Smith: 5-1 ATS (60.7% ROI) at home with Seahawks
Raiders at Seahawks: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.026 | 13 | 0.04 | 21 | 8 |
| Total SR | 42.7% | 21 | 41.6% | 7 | -14 |
| Total DVOA | 4.0% | 15 | 1.4% | 17 | 2 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.092 | 12 | 0.107 | 24 | 12 |
| Dropback SR | 43.0% | 26 | 45.0% | 12 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | 10.4% | 18 | 7.1% | 17 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 11 | 8.1% | 10 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.096 | 27 | -0.058 | 17 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 42.3% | 12 | 36.6% | 5 | -7 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 6 | -5.4% | 17 | 11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.10 | 1 | 4.47 | 18 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5.5 | 16 | 4 |
| Points per Game | 22.5 | 16 | 24.1 | 22 | 6 |
Seahawks Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.063 | 8 | 0.091 | 29 | 21 |
| Total SR | 46.1% | 12 | 48.5% | 29 | 17 |
| Total DVOA | 10.5% | 7 | 17.2% | 32 | 25 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.119 | 7 | 0.224 | 32 | 25 |
| Dropback SR | 52.5% | 3 | 52.5% | 31 | 28 |
| Pass DVOA | 31.5% | 4 | 32.5% | 32 | 28 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.8% | 24 | 4.6% | 30 | 6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.033 | 11 | -0.105 | 7 | -4 |
| Rush SR | 35.1% | 31 | 42.5% | 20 | -11 |
| Rush DVOA | -5.1% | 20 | -1.5% | 22 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.23 | 21 | 4.32 | 14 | -7 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 4 | 5.9 | 28 | 24 |
| Points per Game | 25.7 | 5 | 24.2 | 24 | 19 |
Raiders at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.079 | 17 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 13 |
| QBR | 59.1 | 8 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.4 | 16 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: -4.3
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.149 | 4 |
| AY/A | 8.3 | 5 |
| QBR | 67.3 | 4 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.7 | 11 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.5
- QB Elo per Game: -36.3
Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense
In my personal unit power rankings, I have QB Geno Smith slotted in the top eight at the position — and the Raiders are my No. 32 secondary.
The matchup of Seahawks pass offense vs. Raiders pass defense could hardly be more skewed.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.119 | 7 | 0.224 | 32 | 25 |
| Dropback SR | 0.525 | 3 | 0.525 | 31 | 28 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.315 | 4 | 0.325 | 32 | 28 |
Given that the Seahawks are off the bye and at home, where they have a true advantage with the raucous 12th man, I see them winning by more than a field goal.
Best Line: Seahawks -3.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks -3.5 (-106)
Personal Projection: Seahawks -4.5
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
- Chargers -2.5 at Cardinals
- Falcons +4.5 at Commanders
- Titans +2 vs. Bengals
- Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders
- Giants +10.5 at Cowboys
One complicating factor: Like many others, I had my DraftKings account hacked early this week — and I’m still unable to access it. So there’s a good chance I won’t be entering any Thanksgiving games into the contest.
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
TWEET UPDATE (Sun. 11/27): Here are my five picks.
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