Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
Click on the sportsbook links above to check out their promotional offers. If you’re not taking advantage of these deals, you’re basically admitting to yourself that you hate money.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYG | -8 | -7.75 | 0.25 |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | -13.75 | 0.25 |
| CLE | LAC | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | 0.25 | -2.25 |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | -6.25 | 0.75 |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NE | DET | -3 | -1 | 2 |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | 4.5 | -2 |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | 2.75 | -2.75 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| KC | LV | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Commanders +2.5 vs. Titans
- Lions +3 at Patriots
- Panthers +6.5 vs. 49ers
- Cardinals +5.5 vs. Eagles
- Chiefs -7 vs. Raiders
Freedman’s Week 5 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Check out our Titans at Commanders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: CBS
Titans at Commanders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Titans -2.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Titans -135, Commanders +115
Titans at Commanders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Titans – 78% bets, 89% money
- Over/Under: Under – 34% bets, 44% money
- Moneyline: Commanders – 16% bets, 39% money
Titans at Commanders: Injuries
Titans: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Ola Adeniyi | OLB | Neck | DNP |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Toe | DNP |
| Zach Cunningham | ILB | Elbow | DNP |
| Bud Dupree | OLB | Hip | DNP |
| Joe Jones | LB | Knee | DNP |
| Tory Carter | FB | Neck | LP |
| Amani Hooker | S | Concussion | LP |
| Ugo Amadi | SAF | Ankle | FP |
Titans: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Chance Campbell | LB | IR |
| Trenton Cannon | RB | IR |
| Da’Shawn Hand | DE | IR |
| Chris Jackson | DB | IR |
| Jamarco Jones | OL | IR |
| Harold Landry III | OLB | IR |
| Taylor Lewan | T | IR |
| Racey McMath | WR | IR |
| Elijah Molden | CB | IR |
| A.J. Moore Jr | S | IR |
| Monty Rice | LB | IR |
| Caleb Shudak | K | PUP |
Commanders: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Percy Butler | S | Quad | DNP |
| Sam Cosmi | OT | Finger | DNP |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Milo Eifler | LB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Charles Leno Jr. | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| David Mayo | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| William Jackson | CB | Back | FP |
| Daniel Wise | DT | Ankle | FP |
Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Willie Beavers | G | IR |
| Curtis Hodges | TE | IR |
| Phidarian Mathis | DT | IR |
| Chase Roullier | C | IR |
| Wes Schweitzer | G | IR |
| Brian Robinson | RB | NFI |
| Tyler Larsen | C | PUP |
| Chase Young | DE | PUP |
Titans at Commanders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Mike Vrabel: 9-14 ATS (17.8% ROI for faders) following multiple wins in a row
Commanders Trends
- Home Underdogs: 82-47-7 ATS (22.3% ROI) with three-game losing streak
- Home Underdogs: 16-10-1 ATS (18.5% ROI) with 1-3 record in Week 5
Titans at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Titans Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.033 | 19 | 0.044 | 20 | 1 |
| Total SR | 45.6% | 15 | 40.5% | 5 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | 2.0% | 14 | 8.2% | 24 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.076 | 12 | 0.202 | 28 | 16 |
| Dropback SR | 50.0% | 8 | 45.3% | 17 | 9 |
| Pass DVOA | 29.0% | 9 | 27.7% | 30 | 21 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.5% | 18 | 8.2% | 9 | -9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.169 | 26 | -0.222 | 4 | -22 |
| Rush SR | 40.0% | 17 | 32.3% | 1 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.6% | 22 | -21.5% | 6 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 18 | 3.94 | 7 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 19 | 6 | 25 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 18.8 | 21 | 26.8 | 29 | 8 |
Commanders Offense vs. Titans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 30 | 0.101 | 30 | 0 |
| Total SR | 37.8% | 30 | 43.0% | 14 | -16 |
| Total DVOA | -17.5% | 28 | 7.0% | 21 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.086 | 27 | 0.199 | 27 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 39.6% | 28 | 48.2% | 24 | -4 |
| Pass DVOA | -9.2% | 27 | 22.4% | 26 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.1% | 30 | 6.5% | 15 | -15 |
| Rush EPA | -0.147 | 25 | -0.090 | 14 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 33.3% | 31 | 33.0% | 3 | -28 |
| Rush DVOA | -23.2% | 27 | -19.1% | 8 | -19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.85 | 26 | 4.18 | 12 | -14 |
| Yards per Play | 4.6 | 32 | 6.3 | 30 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 25 | 25.3 | 25 | 0 |
Titans at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Ryan Tannehill
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.094 | 11 |
| AY/A | 7.4 | 13 |
| QBR | 47.8 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.4 | 19 |
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -4.5
2022: Carson Wentz
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.01 | 28 |
| AY/A | 5.6 | 28 |
| QBR | 35.7 | 25 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.4 | 29 |
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -5.9
Key Matchup: Commanders Defensive Line vs. Titans Offensive Line
Even without EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP), the Commanders defense has opened the season No. 9 in adjusted sack rate (8.2%) and top-eight in every key rush efficiency metric.
- Rush EPA: -0.222 (No. 4)
- Rush SR: 32.3% (No. 1)
- Rush DVOA: -21.5% (No. 6)
- Adj. Line Yards: 3.94 (No. 7)
Compare that to the Titans offense, which is not even average in adjusted sack rate or any rushing efficiency metric.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Commanders defensive line as having a significant edge over the Titans offensive line.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | WAS | TEN | 27 | 13 |
For the Titans, QB Ryan Tannehill could be under pressure for much of the game and RB Derrick Henry might struggle to find open running lanes.
In the preseason market, this number was Commanders -0.5, and my projection is still fairly close to that number. They shouldn’t be favored, but they also shouldn’t be dogs of almost a field goal.
Best Line: Commanders +2.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Commanders +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Commanders +0.25
Limit: Commanders +2
Side Note: By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
Special Offer: Get 1 FREE year of BettingPros Premium access >>
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Check out our Lions at Patriots matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- TV: FOX
Lions at Patriots: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Patriots -3
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -159, Lions +140
Lions at Patriots: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Patriots – 45% bets, 81% money
- Over/Under: Over – 73% bets, 76% money
- Moneyline: Patriots – 61% bets, 61% money
Lions at Patriots: Injuries
Lions: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chris Board | LB | Knee | DNP |
| Evan Brown | C | Ankle | DNP |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | Foot | DNP |
| D.J. Chark | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| John Cominsky | DE | Wrist | DNP |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | Hip | DNP |
| Frank Ragnow | C | Foot | DNP |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | Shoulder/Ankle | DNP |
| Kayode Awosika | OT | Hamstring | LP |
| Taylor Decker | OT | Knee | LP |
| Jonah Jackson | G | Finger | LP |
| Matt Nelson | OT | Cal | LP |
| Austin Seibert | K | Right Groin | LP |
Lions: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tommy Kraemer | G | IR |
| Levi Onwuzurike | DL | IR |
| Halapoulivaati Vaitai | G | IR |
| Tracy Walker III | S | IR |
| Jameson Williams | WR | NFI |
| Jason Cabinda | FB | PUP |
| Jerry Jacobs | CB | PUP |
| Romeo Okwara | DL | PUP |
| Josh Paschal | DL | PUP |
Patriots: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Lawrence Guy | DE | Shoulder | DNP |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | Concussion | DNP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Concussion | DNP |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | Ankle | DNP |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Knee | LP |
| Mac Jones | QB | Ankle | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | LP |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Ribs | LP |
| Isaiah Wynn | OT | Hip | LP |
Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Yodny Cajuste | OL | IR |
| Ty Montgomery | WR | IR |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | IR |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | IR |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | IR |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | IR |
| Quinn Nordin | K | NFI |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | NFI |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | Retired |
| James White | RB | Retired |
Lions at Patriots: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Lions Trends
- HC Dan Campbell: 14-6 ATS (33.9% ROI) as underdog
- Road Underdogs: 179-145-10 ATS (6.4% ROI) off loss (since 2018, when sports betting was legalized)
Patriots Trends
- Home Favorites: 140-173-9 ATS (7.7% ROI for faders) when having a losing record the year after making postseason
- Home Favorites: 421-471-50 ATS (4.6% ROI for faders) with spread of no more than -3
Lions at Patriots: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Lions Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.111 | 8 | 0.048 | 22 | 14 |
| Total SR | 42.0% | 21 | 46.9% | 26 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | 15.0% | 7 | 4.3% | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.119 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 43.8% | 21 | 43.4% | 12 | -9 |
| Pass DVOA | 24.0% | 12 | -2.7% | 10 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.4% | 2 | 8.4% | 7 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | 0.098 | 2 | 0.119 | 29 | 27 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 18 | 52.0% | 31 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.5% | 4 | 13.5% | 31 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.10 | 4 | 4.64 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 6.5 | 1 | 5.6 | 16 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 35 | 1 | 24.5 | 22 | 21 |
Patriots Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.014 | 16 | 0.209 | 32 | 16 |
| Total SR | 48.1% | 6 | 50.9% | 31 | 25 |
| Total DVOA | -0.5% | 18 | 18.8% | 32 | 14 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.092 | 29 | 0.234 | 30 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 46.1% | 17 | 51.1% | 28 | 11 |
| Pass DVOA | -11.1% | 28 | 18.9% | 24 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 23 | 6.0% | 21 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | 0.095 | 3 | 0.163 | 32 | 29 |
| Rush SR | 51.0% | 1 | 50.5% | 28 | 27 |
| Rush DVOA | 23.6% | 1 | 18.5% | 32 | 31 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.22 | 1 | 4.75 | 24 | 23 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 31 | 20 |
| Points per Game | 18.5 | 23 | 35.3 | 32 | 9 |
Lions at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.086 | 13 |
| AY/A | 8 | 6 |
| QBR | 67.1 | 8 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.2 | 9 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 6.0
2022: Brian Hoyer
As a backup, QB Brian Hoyer (concussion) hasn’t played enough snaps to accumulate meaningful statistics this year. Additionally, he’s uncertain to play, although I think he’s likelier to suit up than starter Mac Jones (ankle), whose Week 3 injury was expected to sideline him for multiple weeks.
Career: Brian Hoyer
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -50.2
Key Matchup: Lions Rush Offense vs. Patriots Rush Defense
Even without No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), I expect the Lions to run successfully against the Patriots defense, which ranks No. 31 in both rush DVOA (13.5%) and rush SR (52.0%).
I’m not worried about the Wednesday DNP for C Frank Ragnow (foot), who last week was DNP for Wednesday, LP for Thursday and FP on Friday before not even showing up on the final injury report. He’s playing on Sunday.
And LG Jonah Jackson (finger) is trending in the right direction with his Wednesday LP after not practicing at all last week. He might actually suit up.
On the other side, the Patriots last week were without DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder), one of their main interior run stoppers. After suffering his injury in Week 3, he didn’t practice at all in Week 4, and his Wednesday DNP this week is a negative sign for his Week 5 availability.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | DET | NE | 26 | 23 |
I expect the Lions to push the Patriots around and control the ball via the ground attack, which should keep this game close.
This line was Lions +1 in the lookahead market, and that’s where I have it projected now. Maybe the market believes that Patriots QB Mac Jones has a real shot to play this week, but I’m skeptical.
Best Line: Lions +3.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Lions +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Lions +1
Limit: Lions +3
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San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Check out our 49ers at Panthers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
49ers at Panthers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: 49ers -6.5
- Over/Under: 39
- Moneyline: 49ers -275, Panthers +235
49ers at Panthers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: 49ers – 75% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Under – 50% bets, 71% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 18% bets, 38% money
49ers at Panthers: Injuries
49ers: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Trent Williams | OT | Ankle | DNP |
| Colton McKivitz | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | RB | Ankle | DNP |
| Tyler Kroft | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Arik Armstead | DT | Foot, Ankle | DNP |
| Javon Kinlaw | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Tarvarius Moore | DB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Nick Bosa | DE | Rest | DNP |
| Ross Dwelley | TE | Rib | LP |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | Ankle | LP |
49ers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | LB | IR |
| Maurice Hurst | DL | IR |
| Trey Lance | QB | IR |
| Jordan Matthews | TE | IR |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | IR |
| Curtis Robinson | LB | IR |
| Jimmie Ward | DB | IR |
| Jordan Willis | DL | IR |
| Kalia Davis | DL | NFI |
| Jason Verrett | CB | PUP |
Panthers: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Rest | DNP |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver | CB | Thigh | DNP |
| Xavier Woods | S | Hamstring | DNP |
| Marquis Haynes | DE | Knee | LP |
| Frankie Luvu | OLB | Shoulder | LP |
| Shaq Thompson | OLB | Knee | LP |
| Stephen Sullivan | TE | Back | FP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jeremy Chinn | S | IR |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR |
| Sam Darnold | QB | IR |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR |
| Bravvion Roy | DT | IR |
| Julian Stanford | LB | IR |
49ers at Panthers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-26-1 ATS (18.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 19-24 ML (25.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
Panthers Trends
- QB Baker Mayfield: 8-4 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog off loss
- Underdogs: 33-24-2 ATS (12.4% ROI) when playing third consecutive home game
49ers at Panthers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
49ers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.041 | 20 | -0.05 | 10 | -10 |
| Total SR | 39.8% | 27 | 41.4% | 7 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | -7.4% | 21 | -0.9% | 12 | -9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.006 | 18 | 0.022 | 12 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 41.4% | 25 | 42.4% | 9 | -16 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.0% | 16 | 10.0% | 19 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 15 | 3.9% | 31 | 16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.090 | 20 | -0.154 | 9 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 38.2% | 24 | 39.8% | 15 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -16.6% | 24 | -14.1% | 10 | -14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.09 | 21 | 4.46 | 16 | -5 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5 | 8 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 17.8 | 27 | 21.3 | 13 | -14 |
Panthers Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.147 | 32 | -0.177 | 1 | -31 |
| Total SR | 37.6% | 31 | 37.1% | 1 | -30 |
| Total DVOA | -22.7% | 31 | -29.5% | 1 | -30 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.188 | 32 | -0.184 | 3 | -29 |
| Dropback SR | 33.8% | 32 | 39.6% | 2 | -30 |
| Pass DVOA | -31.3% | 31 | -26.7% | 4 | -27 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 28 | 10.0% | 3 | -25 |
| Rush EPA | -0.073 | 18 | -0.165 | 8 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 44.3% | 11 | 32.6% | 2 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.4% | 16 | -33.3% | 1 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.73 | 8 | 3.32 | 1 | -7 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 3.8 | 1 | -26 |
| Points per Game | 19.5 | 17 | 11.5 | 1 | -16 |
49ers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jimmy Garoppolo
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.07 | 18 |
| AY/A | 8 | 6 |
| QBR | 33.2 | 27 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.5 | 21 |
Career: Jimmy Garoppolo
- AY/A: 8.1
- QB Elo per Game: -7.6
2022: Baker Mayfield
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.048 | 32 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 24 |
| QBR | 15.3 | 32 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.8 | 35 |
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -40.3
Key Matchup: Panthers Rush Defense vs. 49ers Rush Offense
The Panthers are an easy team to overlook because of the collective incompetence of HC Matt Rhule, OC Ben McAdoo and QB Baker Mayfield, but they’re actually good on defense.
They’re top-12 against both the pass and the run.
- Pass EPA: 0.022 (No. 12)
- Rush EPA: -0.154 (No. 9)
Their run defense especially should help them keep this contest close, as the 49ers offense is No. 6 in rush rate (51.7%) and heavily predicated on the run game, which they haven’t been able to do well, ranking no better than No. 20 in any rushing efficiency metric.
- Rush EPA: -0.090 (No. 20)
- Rush SR: 38.2% (No. 24)
- Rush DVOA: -16.6% (No. 24)
- Adj. Line Yards: 4.09 (No. 21)
The 49ers running game should be especially hampered by their injuries. Not only are they without No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR), backup RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and running QB Trey Lance (leg), but they are also highly likely to be without starting LT Trent Williams (ankle) and backup LT Colton McKivitz (knee).
This number was Panthers +3 in the lookahead market just a week ago. Not enough has changed from then to now to justify the line movement we’ve seen.
Best Line: Panthers +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Panthers +6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Panthers +4.5
Limit: Panthers +6
Note: I already have a position on this game of 49ers -3 (-110) via the lookahead line, but given my current projection and the range between 49ers -3 and Panthers +6.5, I think it’s worth adding to my original position in an attempt to middle.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Eagles at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Eagles at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Eagles -5.5
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Eagles -230, Cardinals +195
Eagles at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Eagles – 50% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Over – 71% bets, 71% money
- Moneyline: Cardinals – 56% bets, 85% money
Eagles at Cardinals: Injuries
Eagles: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jake Elliott | K | Right Ankle | DNP |
| Kyron Johnson | LB | Concussion | DNP |
| Patrick Johnson | LB | Concussion | DNP |
| Avonte Maddox | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Jordan Mailata | OT | Shoulder | DNP |
| Boston Scott | RB | Rib | LP |
| Isaac Seumalo | G | Ankle | LP |
| Darius Slay | CB | Forearm | FP |
Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Derek Barnett | DE | IR |
| Andre Dillard | T | IR |
| Jaeden Graham | TE | IR |
| Greg Ward | WR | IR |
| Tyree Jackson | TE | PUP |
| Brett Toth | T/G | PUP |
Cardinals: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kelvin Beachum | OT | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marquise Brown | WR | Foot | DNP |
| Zach Ertz | TE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Max Garcia | G | Toe | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| Rashard Lawrence | NT | Hand | DNP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP |
| Justin Pugh | G | Elbow | DNP |
| Nick Vigil | OLB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Maxx Williams | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Zaven Collins | ILB | Shoulder | LP |
| A.J. Green | WR | Knee | LP |
| D.J. Humphries | OT | Hamstring | LP |
| Zeke Turner | LB | Ankle | LP |
| J.J. Watt | DE | Calf | LP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Antonio Hamilton | CB | IR |
| Colt McCoy | QB | IR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Suspended |
Eagles at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 20-9-2 ATS (32.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 16-14-1 ML (43.6% ROI) as underdog
Eagles at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Eagles Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.12 | 5 | 0.047 | 21 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.1% | 13 | 48.1% | 29 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 17.9% | 4 | 11.3% | 29 | 25 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.198 | 4 | 0.19 | 26 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 16 | 52.6% | 31 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 39.9% | 4 | 24.1% | 28 | 24 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.1% | 20 | 3.1% | 32 | 12 |
| Rush EPA | 0.025 | 6 | -0.226 | 3 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 45.8% | 8 | 39.5% | 13 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.3% | 6 | -13.9% | 11 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.44 | 16 | 4.56 | 18 | 2 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 5 | 6.1 | 27 | 22 |
| Points per Game | 28.8 | 4 | 25.8 | 28 | 24 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Eagles Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.011 | 15 | -0.153 | 2 | -13 |
| Total SR | 43.5% | 19 | 42.9% | 13 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -8.5% | 22 | -24.8% | 3 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.014 | 20 | -0.204 | 1 | -19 |
| Dropback SR | 42.2% | 22 | 41.0% | 3 | -19 |
| Pass DVOA | -6.9% | 25 | -36.8% | 2 | -23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.5% | 9 | 10.1% | 2 | -7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 11 | -0.028 | 22 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 46.4% | 7 | 47.3% | 26 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 14 | -1.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 12 | 4.57 | 19 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 28 | 4.5 | 3 | -25 |
| Points per Game | 22 | 14 | 17.8 | 9 | -5 |
Eagles at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jalen Hurts
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.133 | 6 |
| AY/A | 9 | 2 |
| QBR | 60.7 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.6 | 8 |
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.4
- QB Elo per Game: 46.9
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.034 | 25 |
| AY/A | 5.8 | 25 |
| QBR | 48.4 | 17 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.0 | 7 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 65.7
Key Matchup: Cardinals Rush Offense vs. Eagles Rush Defense
The Cardinals have been something of a joke under HC Kliff Kingsbury with their “horizontal raid†passing attack — but they’ve also always been able to run the ball well, given that QB Kyler Murray is a strong scrambler and the offense forces defenses to spread out.
And on defense the Eagles have continued to struggle against the run despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft).
This year the Cardinals offense has outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rush efficiency metric.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 11 | -0.028 | 22 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 46.4% | 7 | 47.3% | 26 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 14 | -1.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 12 | 4.57 | 19 | 7 |
If a home team can run the ball with success, it has a good chance to cover, whether it’s a favorite or an underdog.
In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2.5. They have underperformed expectations to open the year, and the Eagles have outperformed, but not enough for this line to move eight points in just four games.
Best Line: Cardinals +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Cardinals +6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +2.75
Limit: Cardinals +5
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Raiders at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Raiders at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -7
- Over/Under: 51
- Moneyline: Chiefs -330, Raiders +275
Raiders at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Chiefs – 79% bets, 81% money
- Over/Under: Over – 74% bets, 94% money
- Moneyline: Chiefs – 53% bets, 94% money
Raiders at Chiefs: Injuries
Raiders: Week 5 Injury Report
No injury report as of writing.
Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Anthony Averett | CB | IR |
| Jordan Jenkins | DE | IR |
| Micah Kiser | LB | IR |
| Sincere McCormick | RB | IR |
| Brandon Parker | T | IR |
| DJ Turner | WR | IR |
Chiefs: Week 5 Injury Report
No injury report as of writing.
Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Blake Bell | TE | IR |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | IR |
| Justyn Ross | WR | IR |
| Lucas Niang | OL | PUP |
| Jerrion Ealy | WR/RB | Suspended |
| Willie Gay | LB | Suspended |
Raiders at Chiefs: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Chiefs Trends
- HC Andy Reid: 33-21-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) in division (with Chiefs)
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 14-9-1 ATS (17.6% ROI) in primetime (including playoffs)
Raiders at Chiefs: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.018 | 12 | 0.001 | 13 | 1 |
| Total SR | 44.5% | 16 | 47.0% | 27 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -6.0% | 20 | 2.0% | 14 | -6 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.039 | 16 | 0.038 | 15 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 46.4% | 15 | 48.7% | 25 | 10 |
| Pass DVOA | 1.0% | 21 | 13.5% | 21 | 0 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.5% | 19 | 7.2% | 11 | -8 |
| Rush EPA | -0.026 | 14 | -0.101 | 11 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 40.7% | 15 | 42.5% | 21 | 6 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.8% | 13 | -22.8% | 5 | -8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.19 | 2 | 3.82 | 5 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5 | 8 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 24 | 10 | 24 | 20 | 10 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.211 | 1 | 0.021 | 17 | 16 |
| Total SR | 50.4% | 1 | 44.5% | 19 | 18 |
| Total DVOA | 17.6% | 5 | 5.0% | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.32 | 1 | 0.159 | 23 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 54.4% | 2 | 45.6% | 19 | 17 |
| Pass DVOA | 35.0% | 7 | 15.0% | 22 | 15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.1% | 3 | 5.2% | 28 | 25 |
| Rush EPA | 0.018 | 7 | -0.210 | 6 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 43.3% | 12 | 42.7% | 22 | 10 |
| Rush DVOA | -6.5% | 17 | -7.9% | 16 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.67 | 10 | 4.08 | 9 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 6 | 5.8 | 21 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 32.3 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 21 |
Raiders at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.076 | 16 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 20 |
| QBR | 55.2 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.0 | 17 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.3
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.197 | 2 |
| AY/A | 8.5 | 3 |
| QBR | 82.3 | 1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 4.5 | 2 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 117.1
Key Matchup: Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense
For a team to cover a big spread, it usually needs to be able to move the ball through the air so that it can score a lot of points quickly. And with QB Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs can do that. Even without WR Tyreek Hill, they’re top-eight in all the key pass efficiency metrics this year — and the Raiders defense very much isn’t.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.32 | 1 | 0.159 | 23 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 54.4% | 2 | 45.6% | 19 | 17 |
| Pass DVOA | 35.0% | 7 | 15.0% | 22 | 15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.1% | 3 | 5.2% | 28 | 25 |
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see Mahomes as having a massive edge over the Raiders defense in general and the secondary in particular.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC | LV | 25 | 29 | 23 | 27 |
The Chiefs should be able to score at will.
Best Line: Chiefs -7 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -9
Limit: Chiefs -7
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Commanders +2.5 vs. Titans
- Lions +2.5 at Patriots
- Panthers +6.5 vs. 49ers
- Cardinals +5.5 vs. Eagles
- Chiefs -7.5 vs. Raiders
I don’t love that I’m off the key numbers of +3 and -7 with the Lions and Chiefs. I might pivot away from those picks.
Also in consideration are:
- Giants +8.5 at Packers (in London)
- Browns +3.5 vs. Chargers
- Texans +7.5 at Jaguars
- Seahawks +5.5 at Saints
- Jets +3.5 vs. Dolphins
- Steelers +14.5 at Bills
- Rams -4.5 vs. Cowboys
- Bengals +3.5 at Ravens
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (Sun. 10/9): Here’s the tweet.
Week 4 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.79 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 1-4
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 27-20-1 (+5.07 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 12-8
Previous Best Bets Pieces
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