Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 6 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 6 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 6 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 12, 5:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| CHI | WAS | 1 | -3 | -4 |
| MIA | MIN | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 |
| CLE | NE | -3 | -1.75 | 1.25 |
| ATL | SF | 5.5 | 4.25 | -1.25 |
| NO | CIN | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYJ | -7 | -9 | -2 |
| IND | JAX | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1 |
| PIT | TB | 8 | 6.75 | -1.25 |
| NYG | BAL | 5.5 | 4.75 | -0.75 |
| SEA | ARI | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
| LAR | CAR | -10.5 | -9.25 | 1.25 |
| KC | BUF | 2.5 | -1 | -3.5 |
| PHI | DAL | -6 | -6.75 | -0.75 |
| LAC | DEN | -5.5 | -3.75 | 1.75 |
Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Bears +1 vs. Commanders
- Patriots +3 at Browns
- Packers -7 vs. Jets
- Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals
- Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bills
Freedman’s Week 6 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears
Check out our Commanders at Bears matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Soldier Field
- TV: Prime
Commanders at Bears: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Commanders -1
- Over/Under: 38
- Moneyline: Commanders -110, Bears -110
Commanders at Bears: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Bears – 66% bets, 78% money
- Over/Under: Under – 65% bets, 83% money
- Moneyline: Bears – 58% bets, 61% money
Commanders at Bears: Injuries
Commanders: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Percy Butler | SAF | Quad | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Sam Cosmi | OT | Finger | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Hamstring | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Logan Thomas | TE | Calf | LP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jonathan Williams | RB | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| William Jackson | CB | Back | FP | LP | DNP | Out |
| Dyami Brown | WR | Groin | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Willie Beavers | G | IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | IR |
| Curtis Hodges | TE | IR |
| Phidarian Mathis | DT | IR |
| Chase Roullier | C | IR |
| Wes Schweitzer | G | IR |
| Chase Young | DE | PUP |
Bears: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Dane Cruikshank | DB | Hamstring | FP | FP | FP | Questionable |
Bears: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Matt Adams | LB | IR |
| Dakota Dozier | OL | IR |
| Doug Kramer | OL | IR |
| David Moore | WR | IR |
| Byron Pringle | WR | IR |
| Tajae Sharpe | WR | IR |
| Cody Whitehair | OL | IR |
| Tavon Young | DB | IR |
| Alex Leatherwood | OL | NFI |
Commanders at Bears: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Commanders Trends
- 2022 Commanders: 1-4 ATS (54.3% ROI for faders)
- QB Carson Wentz: 25-36 ATS (14.9% ROI for faders) in the post-hype 2018-22 era
- QB Carson Wentz: 13-21 ATS (19.2% ROI for faders) as favorite in the post-hype 2018-22 era
Bears Trends
- 2022 Bears: 2-3 ATS (15.2% ROI for faders)
- QB Justin Fields: 5-10 ATS (28.7% ROI for faders) for career
Commanders at Bears: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Commanders Offense vs. Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.092 | 28 | 0.059 | 23 | -5 |
| Total SR | 38.2% | 30 | 47.6% | 28 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | -19.2% | 30 | 4.1% | 18 | -12 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.06 | 26 | 0.132 | 25 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 41.3% | 27 | 49.7% | 26 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | -8.8% | 28 | 8.1% | 15 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.8% | 29 | 5.6% | 24 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.172 | 27 | -0.020 | 22 | -5 |
| Rush SR | 30.4% | 32 | 45.4% | 23 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -26.1% | 31 | 0.5% | 25 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.78 | 32 | 4.70 | 24 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 24 | 5.6 | 18 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 18 | 26 | 21.2 | 15 | -11 |
Bears Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.029 | 21 | 0.031 | 15 | -6 |
| Total SR | 36.9% | 32 | 40.5% | 6 | -26 |
| Total DVOA | -18.6% | 29 | 4.2% | 19 | -10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.014 | 20 | 0.155 | 26 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 38.3% | 31 | 44.6% | 14 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | -17.1% | 30 | 20.6% | 29 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 16.4% | 32 | 9.6% | 4 | -28 |
| Rush EPA | -0.071 | 22 | -0.161 | 5 | -17 |
| Rush SR | 35.6% | 28 | 34.1% | 4 | -24 |
| Rush DVOA | -9.4% | 20 | -17.8% | 6 | -14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.35 | 19 | 4.19 | 9 | -10 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 21 | 5.6 | 18 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 17.2 | 27 | 25.6 | 25 | -2 |
Commanders at Bears: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Carson Wentz
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.017 | 27 |
| AY/A | 6.3 | 21 |
| QBR | 38.2 | 24 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 25 |
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -4.5
2022: Justin Fields
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.006 | 29 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 19 |
| QBR | 37.1 | 25 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.6 | 37 |
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 5.9
- QB Elo per Game: -108.2
Key Matchup: Bears Pass Defense vs. Commanders Pass Offense
The Bears don’t have a lot going for them organizationally, but at least their pass defense has been good this year — better than the pass offense for the Commanders.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Pass DVOA | -8.8% | 28 | 8.1% | 15 | -13 |
Even though QB Carson Wentz has 1,390 yards and 10 touchdowns passing, he has also continued his tradition of throwing back-breaking interceptions (6) and been careless with the ball (six fumbles) while taking way too many sacks (20, behind only aging statues Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford at 21).
And in this game he’ll be without five starters: WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring), TE Logan Thomas (calf), C Chase Roullier (knee, IR), RG Wes Schweitzer (concussion, IR) and RT Samuel Cosmi (thumb).
Wentz without two of his best red-zone receivers and the entire right side of his offensive line? Yeah, he might struggle.
Best Line: Bears +1 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Bears +1 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears -3
Limit: Bears -1
Side Note: By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Check out our Patriots at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Browns: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Browns -3
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Browns -150, Patriots +126
Patriots at Browns: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Browns – 37% bets, 50% money
- Over/Under: Over – 75% bets, 84% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 40% bets, 60% money
Patriots at Browns: Injuries
Patriots: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| David Andrews | C | Back | LP |
| Lawrence Guy | DE | Shoulder | LP |
| Damien Harris | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Jonathan Jones | CB | Ankle | LP |
| Mac Jones | QB | Ankle | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | LP |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Concussion | LP |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | Ankle | LP |
Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Yodny Cajuste | OL | IR |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | IR |
| Ty Montgomery | RB | IR |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | IR |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | IR |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | IR |
| Quinn Nordin | K | NFI |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | NFI |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | Retired |
| James White | RB | Retired |
Browns: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Elbow | DNP |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle, Knee, Elbow | DNP |
| Amari Cooper | WR | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Ronnie Harrison | DB | Illness | DNP |
| Denzel Ward | CB | Concussion | DNP |
| Taven Bryan | DT | Hamstring | LP |
| Myles Garrett | DE | Shoulder, Biceps, Hand | LP |
| Perrion Winfrey | DT | Ankle | LP |
| Demetric Felton | RB | Wrist | FP |
Browns: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Deion Jones | MLB | IR-Return |
| Greedy Williams | CB | IR-Return |
| Dawson Deaton | G | IR |
| Jerome Ford | RB | IR |
| Jakeem Grant Sr. | WR | IR |
| Nick Harris | C | IR |
| Jesse James | TE | IR |
| Chris Odom | DE | IR |
| Anthony Walker Jr. | LB | IR |
| Stephen Weatherly | DE | IR |
| Isaiah Weston | WR | IR |
| Chase Winovich | DE | IR |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | Suspended |
Patriots at Browns: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Patriots Trends
- 2022 Patriots: 2-2-1 ATS (-3% ROI)
- HC Bill Belichick: 6-2 ATS (46.2% ROI) in #RevengeGame vs. Browns
- HC Bill Belichick: 26-13-2 ATS (29.6% ROI) as road underdog
Browns Trends
- 2022 Browns: 2-3 ATS (15.2% ROI for faders)
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 8-16 ATS (28.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
Patriots at Browns: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Patriots Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 15 | 0.123 | 30 | 15 |
| Total SR | 47.5% | 7 | 44.7% | 18 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -4.5% | 22 | 13.9% | 30 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.019 | 23 | 0.078 | 15 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 47.9% | 11 | 43.4% | 10 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | -2.9% | 26 | 8.6% | 16 | -10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.3% | 21 | 5.8% | 22 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.055 | 2 | 0.191 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush SR | 47.0% | 6 | 46.7% | 29 | 23 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 20.5% | 32 | 21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 5.32 | 32 | 29 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 16 |
| Points per Game | 20.6 | 19 | 25 | 23 | 4 |
Browns Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.129 | 3 | -0.047 | 9 | 6 |
| Total SR | 46.9% | 10 | 45.2% | 20 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 16.3% | 4 | -3.6% | 9 | 5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.103 | 10 | -0.11 | 9 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 46.8% | 17 | 41.9% | 6 | -11 |
| Pass DVOA | 23.7% | 10 | -11.5% | 8 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.9% | 4 | 8.2% | 9 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | 0.157 | 1 | 0.048 | 27 | 26 |
| Rush SR | 47.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 30 | 25 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.4% | 1 | 6.7% | 28 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.90 | 6 | 4.65 | 21 | 15 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 12 | 5.5 | 14 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 26.6 | 6 | 19.6 | 12 | 6 |
Patriots at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Bailey Zappe
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | N/A | N/A |
| AY/A | N/A | N/A |
| QBR | N/A | N/A |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.4 | 39 |
Career: Bailey Zappe
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: -28.4
2022: Jacoby Brissett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.12 | 8 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 19 |
| QBR | 65.9 | 6 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.2 | 19 |
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -29.9
Key Matchup: RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Browns Defense
In a game with two teams that want to run the ball, the Browns have the worse rush defense — and that’s because they have the league’s worst rush defense.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are top-six in most run efficiency metrics.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.055 | 2 | 0.191 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush SR | 47.0% | 6 | 46.7% | 29 | 23 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 20.5% | 32 | 21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 5.32 | 32 | 29 |
RB Damien Harris (hamstring) — despite “practicing†limitedly on Wednesday — is highly unlikely to play this weekend …
… but his absence probably won’t matter given that the Patriots still have RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who has been the leader in the backfield for the past month with a 55% snap rate in each game.
In that time, Stevenson is 60-347-1 rushing and also a nice 11-69-0 receiving on 14 targets. A three-down back, Stevenson is likely to see consistent checkdowns from third-string rookie QB Bailey Zappe — and the Browns are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (35.1%).
On the ground and through the air, Stevenson could dominate the Browns.
Last week, Stevenson went off with 175 yards on 25 carries and two targets with a 90% snap rate, and in his six career games with at least 15 opportunities (carries plus targets) he has averaged 110.7 yards and 0.83 touchdowns.
With Stevenson carrying the Patriots, they should be able to slow down the game and keep the score close.
Best Line: Patriots +3 (-114, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Patriots +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Patriots +1.75
Limit: Patriots +3 (-120)
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Check out our Jets at Packers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: FOX
Jets at Packers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Packers -7
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Packers -335, Jets +260
Jets at Packers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Jets – 55% bets, 64% money
- Over/Under: Under – 22% bets, 23% money
- Moneyline: Jets – 14% bets, 26% money
Jets at Packers: Injuries
Jets: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jermaine Johnson II | DE | Ankle | DNP |
| Duane Brown | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| Carl Lawson | OLB | Ankle | LP |
| C.J. Mosley | ILB | Hip | LP |
| Quincy Williams | ILB | Ankle | LP |
Jets: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Nick Bawden | FB | IR |
| Mekhi Becton | T | IR |
| Vinny Curry | DL | IR |
| George Fant | T | IR |
| Max Mitchell | OL | IR |
| Greg Senat | OL | NFI |
Packers: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Tipa Galeai | LB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | Right Thumb | DNP |
| Christian Watson | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| David Bakhtiari | OT | Knee | LP |
| Elgton Jenkins | G | Knee | LP |
| Devonte Wyatt | DT | Quadricep | LP |
Packers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Krys Barnes | LB | IR |
| Sammy Watkins | WR | IR |
| Caleb Jones | T | NFI |
| Kylin Hill | RB | PUP |
Jets at Packers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Jets Trends
- 2022 Jets: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI)
- HC Robert Saleh: 8-13 ATS (23.1% ROI for faders) as underdog
Packers Trends
- 2022 Packers: 2-3 ATS (14.6% ROI for faders)
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 40-21-1 ATS (28.2% ROI) off loss
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 66-35-3 ATS (26.5% ROI) at home
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 97-66-3 ATS (16.1% ROI) as favorite
Jets at Packers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jets Offense vs. Packers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.034 | 23 | 0.034 | 16 | -7 |
| Total SR | 41.1% | 25 | 46.8% | 26 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | -3.5% | 21 | 7.1% | 23 | 2 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.037 | 24 | 0.019 | 10 | -14 |
| Dropback SR | 42.8% | 23 | 43.9% | 13 | -10 |
| Pass DVOA | 1.6% | 19 | 2.2% | 11 | -8 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 16 | 8.2% | 8 | -8 |
| Rush EPA | -0.026 | 17 | 0.052 | 28 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 37.4% | 27 | 50.4% | 32 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.7% | 14 | 12.4% | 30 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.27 | 21 | 5.26 | 31 | 10 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 21 | 5.5 | 14 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 11 | 19.2 | 11 | 0 |
Packers Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.02 | 14 | 0.043 | 19 | 5 |
| Total SR | 48.3% | 5 | 46.1% | 22 | 17 |
| Total DVOA | 13.4% | 8 | 5.4% | 21 | 13 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.039 | 18 | 0.109 | 23 | 5 |
| Dropback SR | 47.9% | 11 | 46.2% | 18 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.9% | 13 | 13.9% | 23 | 10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.0% | 13 | 7.1% | 11 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.006 | 10 | -0.051 | 18 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 48.9% | 2 | 45.8% | 25 | 23 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.4% | 3 | -4.7% | 19 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.23 | 2 | 4.35 | 10 | 8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 12 | 5.2 | 9 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 19.4 | 22 | 23.6 | 18 | -4 |
Jets at Packers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Zach Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | N/A | N/A |
| AY/A | N/A | N/A |
| QBR | N/A | N/A |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.3 | 36 |
Career: Zach Wilson
- AY/A: 5.5
- QB Elo per Game: -120.9
2022: Aaron Rodgers
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.089 | 12 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 44.6 | 20 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.8 | 5 |
Career: Aaron Rodgers
- AY/A: 8.4
- QB Elo per Game: 81.7
Key Matchup: Packers Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense
QB Zach Wilson has been somewhat mediocre for the Jets in his two starts this year (6.9 AY/A) — but this is a comedown spot for the Jets and a bounceback spot for the Packers, who have a clear advantage on defense against Wilson in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | GB | 8 | 4 | -18 | -22 |
And that same edge is extended against his pass catchers …
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | NYJ | GB | 4 | -14 |
… and also his offensive line, which is down three tackles: Mekhi Becton (knee, IR), George Fant (knee, IR) and Max Mitchell (knee, IR).
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | NYJ | GB | 6 | -22 |
Under steady pressure from EDGEs Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, Wilson seems likely to regress toward his 2021 form this week.
Best Line: Packers -7 (-115, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Packers -9 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Packers -9
Limit: Packers -7 (-120)
View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Check out our Cardinals at Seahawks matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Lumen Field
- TV: FOX
Cardinals at Seahawks: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cardinals -2.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Cardinals -144, Seahawks +122
Cardinals at Seahawks: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Cardinals – 49% bets, 53% money
- Over/Under: Over – 48% bets, 70% money
- Moneyline: Seahawks – 46% bets, 78% money
Cardinals at Seahawks: Injuries
Cardinals: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | OL | Knee | DNP |
| Trayvon Mullen | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP |
| Darrel Williams | RB | Knee | DNP |
| Max Garcia | OL | Toe | LP |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Sean Harlow | OL | Ankle | LP |
| D.J. Humprhies | OL | Hamstring | LP |
| Rashard Lawrence | DL | Hand | LP |
| Justin Pugh | OL | Elbow | LP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | # | Pos | Status |
| Colt McCoy | 12 | QB | IR-Return |
| Antoine Wesley | 13 | WR | IR-Return |
| Tae Daley | 48 | S | IR |
| Cody Ford | 72 | OL | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | 78 | OL | IR |
| Joshua Miles | 66 | OL | IR |
| Nick Vigil | 59 | ILB | IR |
| Jonathan Ward | 29 | RB | IR |
| Charles Washington | 28 | S | IR |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | WR | Suspended |
Seahawks: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Dee Eskridge | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Penny Hart | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Dareke Young | WR | Quadriceps | DNP |
| Shelby Harris | DE | Hip | DNP |
| Gabe Jackson | G | Knee/Hip | DNP |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | Ankle | DNP |
| Al Woods | NT | Knee | DNP |
| Marquise Goodwin | WR | Knee/Back | FP |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | Shoulder | FP |
| Justin Coleman | CB | Calf | FP |
Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| L.J. Collier | DE | IR-Return |
| Jamal Adams | SS | IR |
| Travis Homer | RB | IR |
| Darryl Johnson | LB | IR |
| Tyler Ott | LS | IR |
| John Reid | CB | IR |
| Alton Robinson | LB | IR |
| Tyreke Smith | LB | IR |
| Cody Thompson | WR | IR |
| Tre Brown | CB | PUP |
| Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | PUP |
| Jon Rhattigan | LB | PUP |
Cardinals at Seahawks: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Cardinals Trends
- 2022 Cardinals: 3-2 ATS (14.5% ROI)
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 19-6-2 ATS (44.2% ROI) on road
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 8-14 ATS (22.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
Seahawks Trends
- 2022 Seahawks: 2-3 ATS (15.4% ROI for faders)
- HC Pete Carroll: 55-40-3 ATS (12.7% ROI) at home
- HC Pete Carroll: 43-28-3 ATS (17.6% ROI) as underdog
- HC Pete Carroll: 16-8 ATS (31.0% ROI) as home underdog
Cardinals at Seahawks: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cardinals Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.006 | 18 | 0.173 | 31 | 13 |
| Total SR | 44.2% | 17 | 46.2% | 23 | 6 |
| Total DVOA | -5.6% | 23 | 15.4% | 31 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.017 | 19 | 0.307 | 32 | 13 |
| Dropback SR | 43.9% | 21 | 50.0% | 28 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.8% | 23 | 31.4% | 31 | 8 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.7% | 7 | 5.1% | 28 | 21 |
| Rush EPA | -0.014 | 14 | 0.023 | 25 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 44.7% | 8 | 41.9% | 17 | 9 |
| Rush DVOA | -3.5% | 16 | 0.0% | 24 | 8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.58 | 11 | 5.12 | 30 | 19 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 26 | 6.6 | 32 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 21 | 18 | 30.8 | 31 | 13 |
Seahawks Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.12 | 4 | 0.062 | 24 | 20 |
| Total SR | 47.1% | 9 | 50.5% | 31 | 22 |
| Total DVOA | 21.3% | 1 | 8.6% | 26 | 25 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.173 | 4 | 0.177 | 28 | 24 |
| Dropback SR | 52.2% | 3 | 53.3% | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 45.1% | 1 | 19.6% | 27 | 26 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.7% | 17 | 3.4% | 32 | 15 |
| Rush EPA | 0.024 | 6 | -0.139 | 7 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 37.9% | 23 | 45.5% | 24 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.3% | 12 | -9.1% | 12 | 0 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.52 | 15 | 4.68 | 22 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 6.6 | 2 | 5.9 | 22 | 20 |
| Points per Game | 25.4 | 7 | 24.6 | 22 | 15 |
Cardinals at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.051 | 21 |
| AY/A | 5.7 | 29 |
| QBR | 52.1 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.3 | 7 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 66.5
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.189 | 3 |
| AY/A | 8.9 | 2 |
| QBR | 74.8 | 4 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.5 | 10 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -45.9
Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
Going back to last season, when he made three spot starts for the injured Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith has a top-three 8.5 AY/A and 0.154 composite EPA + CPOE.
Right now the world is Smith’s kitchen, and he’s cooking. For the season, the Seahawks are top-four in most pass efficiency metrics, and the Cardinals defense is bottom-six.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.173 | 4 | 0.177 | 28 | 24 |
| Dropback SR | 52.2% | 3 | 53.3% | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 45.1% | 1 | 19.6% | 27 | 26 |
It helps that he has a top-10 pass-catching unit anchored by WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who have a massive edge over an outmatched secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SEA | ARI | 30 | 20 |
As wild as this is to say — because we have Cardinals QB Kyler Murray ranked as the No. 9 player at his position — Smith has been every bit as good as (and maybe better than?) Murray through five games, thanks in large part to the playmaking support of his receivers and the play-calling support of his coaches.
Given how well Smith has played to open the year — and how bad the Cardinals secondary has been — it’s hard to see why the Seahawks are home underdogs, especially against a divisional opponent.
Best Line: Seahawks +3 (-125, Caesars)
First Recommended: Seahawks +3 (-125)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Seahawks +2
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Bills at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: CBS
Bills at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Bills -2.5
- Over/Under: 54
- Moneyline: Bills -145, Chiefs +125
Bills at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Chiefs – 66% bets, 69% money
- Over/Under: Under – 15% bets, 42% money
- Moneyline: Bills – 36% bets, 53% money
Bills at Chiefs: Injuries
Bills: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jake Kumerow | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Rodger Saffold | G | Vet Rest | DNP |
| Taiwan Jones | RB | Knee | DNP |
| Christian Benford | CB | Hand | LP |
| DaQuan Jones | DE | Hip | LP |
| Dawson Knox | TE | Foot/Hamstring | LP |
| Jordan Phillips | DT | Hamstring | LP |
| Jordan Poyer | FS | Ribs | LP |
| Kaiir Elam | CB | Foot | LP |
| Mitch Morse | C | Elbow | LP |
| Tremaine Edmunds | MLB | Hamstring | LP |
| Von Miller | OLB | Ret Rest | LP |
| Cam Lewis | CB | Forearm | FP |
| Ed Oliver | DT | Ankle | FP |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | Concussion | FP |
Bills: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | IR |
| Tommy Doyle | T | IR |
| Micah Hyde | S | IR |
| Marquez Stevenson | WR | IR |
| Ike Boettger | G | PUP |
| Tre’Davious White | CB | PUP |
| Andre Smith | LB | Suspended |
Chiefs: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Bryan Cook | SAF | Concussion | DNP |
| Rashad Fenton | DB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Chris Lammons | DB | Hip | DNP |
| Tershawn Wharton | DE | Knee | DNP |
| Harrison Butker | K | Left Ankle | LP |
| Frank Clark | DE | Illness | LP |
| Michael Danna | DE | Calf | LP |
| Travis Kelce | TE | Hip/Back | FP |
| Nick Bolton | LB | Quad | FP |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | Heel | FP |
| Skyy Moore | WR | Ankle | FP |
| Trey Smith | G | Pectoral | FP |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | Hamstring/Quad | FP |
Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | IR-Return |
| Blake Bell | TE | IR |
| Justyn Ross | WR | IR |
| Lucas Niang | OL | PUP |
| Jerrion Ealy | WR/RB | Suspended |
| Willie Gay | LB | Suspended |
Bills at Chiefs: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Bills Trends
- 2022 Bills: 3-2 ATS (13.9% ROI)
- QB Josh Allen: 19-10-2 ATS (24.3% ROI)
Chiefs Trends
- 2022 Chiefs: 2-3 ATS (16.4% ROI for faders)
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 7-0-1 ATS (85.4% ROI) as underdog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 6-2 ML (89.3% ROI) as underdog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 14-17-1 ATS (6.1% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Andy Reid: 3-1 ATS (45.3% ROI) vs. Josh Allen
Bills at Chiefs: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.18 | 2 | 0.038 | 17 | 15 |
| Total SR | 50.2% | 2 | 46.2% | 23 | 21 |
| Total DVOA | 14.9% | 7 | 3.3% | 15 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.327 | 1 | 0.086 | 19 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 54.9% | 1 | 47.4% | 21 | 20 |
| Pass DVOA | 40.6% | 3 | 11.5% | 19 | 16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 8 | 7.8% | 10 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.206 | 28 | -0.076 | 14 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 37.8% | 24 | 43.4% | 20 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -24.2% | 30 | -12.6% | 8 | -22 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.95 | 28 | 4.37 | 13 | -15 |
| Yards per Play | 6.7 | 1 | 5.3 | 11 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 30.4 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 21 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Bills Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.212 | 1 | -0.144 | 2 | 1 |
| Total SR | 50.6% | 1 | 42.6% | 11 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 18.6% | 3 | -21.8% | 2 | -1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.322 | 2 | -0.154 | 2 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 54.8% | 2 | 45.4% | 17 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 37.3% | 4 | -21.5% | 6 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 9 | 8.6% | 7 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | 0.004 | 9 | -0.126 | 9 | 0 |
| Rush SR | 42.7% | 13 | 36.9% | 9 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.1% | 19 | -22.3% | 3 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 18 | 3.32 | 1 | -17 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 9 | 4.4 | 2 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 31.8 | 1 | 12.2 | 1 | 0 |
Bills at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Josh Allen
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.196 | 1 |
| AY/A | 8.8 | 3 |
| QBR | 78.5 | 2 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 6.3 | 1 |
Career: Josh Allen
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 67.6
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.193 | 2 |
| AY/A | 8.5 | 4 |
| QBR | 78.5 | 2 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 4.8 | 2 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 117.9
Key Matchup: TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills Pass Defense
TE Travis Kelce is one of my Week 6 fantasy favorites, and I think he’s the key to this game for the Chiefs.
With a rebuilt wide receiver unit, Kelce has predictably been the top pass catcher for the Chiefs, ranking No. 1 on the team with 42 targets and 33-347-7 receiving. Instead of pushing the ball downfield this year, QB Patrick Mahomes has taken what the defense has given him, meticulously moving the ball with a ruthless efficiency — and it’s hard to argue with the results, as the Chiefs rank No. 1 in offensive EPA per play (0.212) and total SR (50.6%) as well as points per game (31.8).
And Kelce has been a big driver of the Chiefs’ “break them by bending them†offensive approach. With his pass-catching dominance, he’s basically a middle-of-the-field cheat code — and I think he could go off against the Bills secondary.
As good as the Bills defense is, it has been perfectly content this year to allow opposing offenses to move down the field play by play via the passing game — and that’s a major strength of the Chiefs.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback SR | 54.8% | 2 | 45.4% | 17 | 15 |
If the Bills invite Mahomes to target receivers on non-contested short and intermediate routes, he’ll do it all game long — and that means a lot of Kelce.
At least it meant that last year, when Kelce had 14-153-2 receiving on 19 targets against the Bills in two games.
And the Bills pass defense isn’t even close to full strength. In the past, No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White (knee, PUP) has sometimes matched up with Kelce, but he won’t be active for this game as he continues to work his way back from injury.
On top of that, FS Micah Hyde (neck, IR) is out and SS Jordan Poyer (ribs), CB Christian Benford (hand) and LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) are uncertain after missing Week 5.
With Kelce operating against an injured pass defense, I think the Chiefs will pull off the upset.
Best Line: Chiefs +3 (-120, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Chiefs +1 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Chiefs -1
Limit: Chiefs +1
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Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
- Vikings -2.5 at Dolphins
- Ravens -4.5 at Giants
- Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals
- Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bills
- Eagles -4.5 vs. Cowboys
Also in consideration are:
- Falcons +5.5 vs. 49ers
- Packers -7.5 vs. Jets
- Steelers +7.5 vs. Buccaneers
- Panthers +10.5 at Rams
- Broncos +5.5 at Chargers
A quick note on Week 5: Last week in this article I highlighted Lions +3 and Chiefs -7 and then said that I was leaning toward them in the DraftKings contest respectively at +2.5 and -7.5.
But I also said this: “I don’t love that I’m off the key numbers of +3 and -7 with the Lions and Chiefs. I might pivot away from those picks.â€
And Browns +3.5 and Bengals +3.5 were the teams I planned to pivot to because of my projections and the value they offered relative to the market.
But like a moron I decided to wait until Sunday to make that change — so that I could have full information before making my decision — and then I ran out of time on Sunday and failed to pivot … because my computer froze 10 minutes before the 1 pm ET kickoff, and I still needed to finish tweaking my fantasy rankings. So I quickly updated my rankings after my computer rebooted instead of updating my DraftKings entry.
Indeed, that was a sizable error. Instead of a livable 3-2, I was a deplorable 1-4.
I’m not bringing this up to say, “Hey, I’m better than my record.†No excuses. I went 1-4 last week, and it’s all my fault.
I’m bringing this up to say, “Hey, if you’re in a similar situation on Sundays, where you’ve got a lot of things to do and might find yourself in a time crunch, go ahead and make any updates now (or on Saturday night) that you think you might want to make on Sunday morning. Just do it in advance, so you can avoid any potential issues in the future.â€
That’s not the way I wanted to learn that lesson, but it has been learned.
UPDATE (Sun. 10/16): Here’s the tweet.
Week 5 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 5-6 (-1.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 1-4
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 32-26-1 (+3.35 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 13-12
Previous Best Bets Pieces
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