Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 7 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 7 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 7 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 19, 3:00 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| ARI | NO | -2 | 0 | 2 |
| BAL | CLE | -6.5 | -7.25 | -0.75 |
| CIN | ATL | -6 | -5.5 | 0.5 |
| DAL | DET | -7 | -5.5 | 1.5 |
| WAS | GB | 5.5 | 4.25 | -1.25 |
| CAR | TB | 10.5 | 10 | -0.5 |
| JAX | NYG | -3 | -1.25 | 1.75 |
| TEN | IND | -2.5 | -1.75 | 0.75 |
| LV | HOU | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| DEN | NYJ | -1 | -2.25 | -1.25 |
| SF | KC | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| LAC | SEA | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 |
| MIA | PIT | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| NE | CHI | -8 | -7 | 1 |
Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Saints +2 at Cardinals
- Ravens -6.5 vs. Browns
- Lions +7 at Cowboys
- Giants +3 at Jaguars
- Dolphins -7 vs. Steelers
Freedman’s Week 7 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Saints at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: PRIME
Saints at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cardinals -2
- Over/Under: 44
- Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Saints +110
Saints at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Saints – 32% bets, 40% money
- Over/Under: Under – 46% bets, 80% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 31% bets, 74% money
Saints at Cardinals: Injuries
Saints: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Michael Thomas | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Andrus Peat | G | Chest | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Adam Trautman | TE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | Abdomen | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Keith Kirkwood | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| Paulson Adebo | CB | Knee | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Calvin Throckmorton | OT | Hip | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Payton Turner | DE | Chest | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Forrest Lamp | OL | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Alontae Taylor | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Cardinals: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Marquise Brown | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Justin Pugh | G | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Darrel Williams | RB | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Jalen Thompson | FS | Hamstring | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Trayvon Mullen | CB | Hamstring | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Nick Vigil | ILB | IR |
| Jonathan Ward | RB | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR-DFR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR-DFR |
Saints at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Saints Trends
- 2022 Saints: 2-4 ATS (26.0% ROI for faders)
- 2022 Saints: 2-1 ATS (27.5% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
- 2022 Road Underdogs: 31-21 ATS (13.7% ROI)
Cardinals Trends
- 2022 Cardinals: 3-3 ATS (-4.5 ROI)
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 8-15 ATS (25.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-13 ML (67.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-17 ATS (21.1% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-17-1 ML (45.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 4-11 ATS (40.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 6-9 ML (74.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Saints at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Saints Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.013 | 19 | 0.023 | 18 | -1 |
| Total SR | 47.2% | 8 | 48.9% | 30 | 22 |
| Total DVOA | -1.4% | 18 | 6.2% | 20 | 2 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.028 | 23 | 0.138 | 27 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 46.6% | 16 | 53.4% | 32 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.7% | 26 | 16.1% | 24 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.5% | 20 | 5.4% | 27 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | 0.008 | 7 | -0.169 | 4 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 48.2% | 3 | 41.4% | 17 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.3% | 2 | -9.3% | 11 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.14 | 2 | 4.21 | 10 | 8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 6 | 5.6 | 17 | 11 |
| Points per Game | 23.5 | 11 | 23.7 | 22 | 11 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.027 | 20 | 0.01 | 15 | -5 |
| Total SR | 42.3% | 23 | 42.9% | 13 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | -13.1% | 26 | 4.5% | 18 | -8 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.028 | 23 | 0.131 | 26 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 42.0% | 25 | 46.5% | 20 | -5 |
| Pass DVOA | -9.3% | 27 | 13.2% | 21 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 14 | 6.7% | 17 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.027 | 13 | -0.175 | 3 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 42.9% | 11 | 37.3% | 7 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.4% | 20 | -7.3% | 14 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.35 | 20 | 4.61 | 20 | 0 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.6 | 17 | -12 |
| Points per Game | 19 | 22 | 26.3 | 29 | 7 |
Saints at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 7.1 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.9 | 35 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -7.3
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.04 | 25 |
| AY/A | 5.6 | 31 |
| QBR | 46.6 | 19 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.9 | 8 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 64.5
Key Matchup: Saints Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
The Saints are without WRs Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle) — but I don’t think that matters.
The Saints have averaged 30 points over the past three games with backup QB Andy Dalton, whom I think will start again this week, and Thomas has been out that entire time.
As for Landry, he was out for Weeks 5-6, and in Week 4 he was targeted just twice, so his absence isn’t impactful, and Trautman is just a rotational player.
What really matters for the Saints — in terms of their receivers — is that they have pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara (12-116-0 receiving on 15 targets in two games with Dalton) and sensational rookie WR Chris Olave (No. 1 in the league with 158 air yards and yards after catch per game).
With those two, the Saints should be able to move the ball via the air, especially against a weak Cardinals defense that is No. 32 in pass DVOA against running backs (59.2%) and No. 32 in dropback success rate (53.4%).
Kamara and Olave should get theirs.
Plus, Dalton has been solid in relief of Winston — perhaps solid enough to keep the starting job. He’s No. 12 on the season with a 7.1 AY/A (vs. 6.2 for Winston), primarily because he has been able to avoid the back-breaking interceptions that are a constitutive part of Winston’s game (1 INT, 1.2% INT rate vs. 5 INTs, 4.3% INT rate for Winston).
With Dalton keeping the ball safe and the Saints able to move at will, they should be able to keep this game close against a Cardinals team that tends to start slow and give contests away.
Best Line: Saints +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Saints +1.5
By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Check out our Browns at Ravens matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: M&T Bank Field
- TV: CBS
Browns at Ravens: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Ravens -6.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Ravens -275, Browns +230
Browns at Ravens: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Ravens – 55% bets, 70% money
- Over/Under: Under – 31% bets, 35% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 7% bets, 57% money
Browns at Ravens: Injuries
Browns: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle | DNP |
| Jack Conklin | OT | Ankle | DNP |
| Amari Cooper | WR | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Tony Fields II | LB | Illness | DNP |
| Myles Garrett | DE | Shoulder, Biceps | DNP |
| Joe Haeg | OT | Concussion | DNP |
| David Njoku | TE | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Wyatt Teller | G | Calf | DNP |
| Denzel Ward | CB | Concussion | DNP |
| Alex Wright | DE | Quad, Glute | FP |
Browns: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Dawson Deaton | G | IR |
| Jerome Ford | RB | IR |
| Jakeem Grant Sr. | WR | IR |
| Nick Harris | C | IR |
| Jesse James | TE | IR |
| Chris Odom | DE | IR |
| Anthony Walker Jr. | LB | IR |
| Stephen Weatherly | DE | IR |
| Isaiah Weston | WR | IR |
| Chase Winovich | DE | IR |
| Deion Jones | MLB | IR-DFR |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | Susp |
Ravens: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Mark Andrews | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Calais Campbell | DE | Foot | DNP |
| Ben Cleveland | G | Foot | DNP |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Knee | DNP |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Morgan Moses | OT | Heel | DNP |
| Marcus Peters | CB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Patrick Ricard | FB | Knee | DNP |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Foot | LP |
| Justin Houston | OLB | Groin | LP |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Hip | LP |
| Ronnie Stanley | OT | NIR-Rest/Ankle | LP |
| Justice Hill | RB | Hamstring | FP |
Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Vince Biegel | OLB | IR |
| Kyle Fuller | CB | IR |
| Daelin Hayes | OLB | IR |
| Ja’Wuan James | T | IR |
| Charlie Kolar | TE | IR |
| Steven Means | OLB | IR |
| Michael Pierce | NT | IR |
| Josh Ross | ILB | IR |
| Marcus Williams | S | IR |
| David Ojabo | OLB | IR-NFI |
| Tyus Bowser | OLB | PUP |
| Gus Edwards | RB | PUP |
Browns at Ravens: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Browns Trends
- 2022 Browns: 2-4 ATS (27.2% ROI for faders)
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 2-11 ATS (61.2% ROI for faders) in division
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 0-4 ATS (92.7% ROI for faders) vs. Ravens
Ravens Trends
- 2022 Ravens: 3-3 ATS (-5.4 ROI)
- HC John Harbaugh: 4-0 ATS (92.7% ROI) vs. HC Kevin Stefanski
Browns at Ravens: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.068 | 5 | 0.065 | 27 | 22 |
| Total SR | 44.5% | 14 | 46.7% | 27 | 13 |
| Total DVOA | 10.9% | 8 | 0.5% | 16 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.041 | 18 | 0.111 | 23 | 5 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 22 | 48.7% | 27 | 5 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.8% | 14 | 0.8% | 10 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.9% | 6 | 6.4% | 20 | 14 |
| Rush EPA | 0.101 | 1 | -0.036 | 20 | 19 |
| Rush SR | 45.7% | 4 | 42.1% | 18 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.8% | 4 | 0.1% | 24 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.85 | 6 | 4.80 | 27 | 21 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.7 | 20 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 24.7 | 7 | 23.5 | 20 | 13 |
Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.088 | 4 | 0.137 | 31 | 27 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 43.9% | 17 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 17.4% | 3 | 15.6% | 31 | 28 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.101 | 10 | 0.121 | 24 | 14 |
| Dropback SR | 47.9% | 12 | 44.6% | 13 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.9% | 4 | 17.5% | 27 | 23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 6.3% | 21 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | 0.068 | 2 | 0.162 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush SR | 44.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 20 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 13.7% | 3 | 13.1% | 30 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.25 | 22 | 5.17 | 31 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 26 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 5 | 27.2 | 30 | 25 |
Browns at Ravens: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jacoby Brissett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.075 | 16 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 28 |
| QBR | 58.2 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.0 | 27 |
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -33.6
2022: Lamar Jackson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.111 | 6 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 64.1 | 5 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.6 | 5 |
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 82.1
Key Matchup: Ravens Rush Offense vs. Browns Rush Defense
The Ravens have a top-three run offense and the Browns have a bottom-three run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.068 | 2 | 0.162 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.137 | 3 | 0.131 | 30 | 27 |
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Ravens — now with LT Ronnie Stanley healthy — have the eighth-best offensive line, while the Browns have the eighth-worst defensive line.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | CLE | BAL | 8 | -17 |
No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is uncertain after exiting Week 6 early and missing Wednesday practice, but backup RB Kenyan Drake (10-119-1 rushing) played well in his place last week, and No. 3 Justice Hill (6.6 yards per carry this year) practiced fully yesterday, so he seems likely to return this week.
And of course the Ravens have QB Lamar Jackson, who has a position-high 451 yards rushing this year.
Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in my Week 7 fantasy rankings. He is one of my favorite Week 7 fantasy plays.
As for the Browns, they’re bad against the run anyway — and they are without EDGEs Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) and LB Anthony Walker (leg, IR) and might be without EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) and LB Deion Jones (shoulder, IR-DFR).
If a home team can control the clock with the ground game, it has the ability to pile on the points, and I think that’s what the Ravens will do.
Best Line: Ravens -6 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Ravens -6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Ravens -7.25
Limit: Ravens -6.5
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Check out our Lions at Cowboys matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium
- TV: CBS
Lions at Cowboys: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cowboys -7
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Cowboys -315, Lions +265
Lions at Cowboys: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Lions – 52% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Under – 43% bets, 64% money
- Moneyline: Lions – 12% bets, 46% money
Lions at Cowboys: Injuries
Lions: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chris Board | LB | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Chark | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Taylor Decker | OT | Personal | DNP |
| Charles Harris | DE | Groin | DNP |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | SAF | Ankle | DNP |
| Matt Nelson | OT | Calf | DNP |
| Bobby Price | DB | Knee | DNP |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | Knee | DNP |
| John Cominsky | DE | Wrist | LP |
| Will Harris | DB | Hip | LP |
| Frank Ragnow | C | Foot | LP |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | Ankle/Shoulder | LP |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Ankle | FP |
Lions: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | IR |
| Tommy Kraemer | G | IR |
| Levi Onwuzurike | DL | IR |
| Halapoulivaati Vaitai | G | IR |
| Tracy Walker III | S | IR |
| Jameson Williams | WR | IR-NFI |
| Jason Cabinda | FB | PUP |
| Jerry Jacobs | CB | PUP |
| Romeo Okwara | DL | PUP |
| Josh Paschal | DL | PUP |
Cowboys: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | Hip | LP |
| Quinton Bohanna | DT | Shoulder | FP |
| Neville Gallimore | DT | Wrist | FP |
| Devin Harper | LB | Achilles | FP |
| Jason Peters | OT | Chest | FP |
| Dak Prescott | QB | Right Thumb | FP |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | Knee | FP |
Cowboys: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tarell Basham | DE | IR |
| Devante Bond | LB | IR |
| Ian Bunting | TE | IR |
| Simi Fehoko | WR | IR |
| Damone Clark | LB | IR-NFI |
Lions at Cowboys: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Lions Trends
- 2022 Lions: 3-2 ATS (16.1% ROI)
- HC Dan Campbell: 14-7 ATS (27.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Dan Campbell: 5-1 ATS (58.8% ROI) vs. teams with winning records at time of game
Cowboys Trends
- 2022 Cowboys: 4-2 ATS (27.8% ROI)
- QB Dak Prescott: 7-14-1 ATS (27.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite outside division
Lions at Cowboys: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Lions Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.012 | 16 | -0.091 | 5 | -11 |
| Total SR | 41.3% | 26 | 40.3% | 4 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | 7.6% | 9 | -16.7% | 6 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.001 | 19 | -0.091 | 6 | -13 |
| Dropback SR | 42.4% | 24 | 42.0% | 6 | -18 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.3% | 15 | -24.6% | 3 | -12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.3% | 1 | 10.4% | 1 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | -0.090 | 12 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 39.7% | 22 | 37.5% | 8 | -14 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 5 | -5.4% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 4.30 | 13 | 10 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 2 | 4.6 | 3 | 1 |
| Points per Game | 28 | 3 | 16.3 | 3 | 0 |
Cowboys Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.069 | 25 | 0.195 | 32 | 7 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 25 | 49.9% | 31 | 6 |
| Total DVOA | -0.3% | 17 | 19.7% | 32 | 15 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.089 | 29 | 0.252 | 32 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 39.9% | 28 | 51.9% | 30 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.0% | 21 | 24.1% | 32 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 5 | 4.9% | 28 | 23 |
| Rush EPA | -0.043 | 16 | 0.107 | 31 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 43.2% | 9 | 46.6% | 29 | 20 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.2% | 6 | 13.7% | 31 | 25 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.73 | 8 | 4.75 | 25 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 23 | 6.5 | 32 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 23 | 34 | 32 | 9 |
Lions at Cowboys: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.046 | 23 |
| AY/A | 7.5 | 7 |
| QBR | 57.6 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.8 | 13 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 4.8
2022: Dak Prescott
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.2 | 11 |
Career: Dak Prescott
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 54.4
Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Cowboys Defensive Line
Last year I thought the Cowboys defense was fraudulent, living off an unsustainable league-high 26 interceptions while still allowing the 12th-most yards per play (5.5).
But this year, they have proven themselves to be legitimate. They’re not as opportunistic, but they’re better overall, ranking No. 1 in sacks (24), No. 2 in quarterback hits (51) and No. 3 in yards per play (4.6).
With a strong quintet of EDGE rushers — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler and Sam Williams — the Cowboys can get after the passer.
They rank No. 1 in defensive adjusted sack rate (10.4%).
But in this game they might just meet their match — because the Lions are No. 1 in offensive adjusted sack rate (3.3%).
I personally have the Lions with the No. 1 offensive line in the league. As a staff, the FantasyPros experts have their line ranked No. 3. Either way, the large advantage that the Cowboys defensive line normally has over opposing units isn’t manifest in our unit power rankings.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | DET | 3 | 2 |
And I’d argue that the Lions actually have the edge in this OL-vs.-DL matchup, because the Cowboys can be pushed around a little in the ground game, and the Lions are their best on offense when they’re running the ball. In most key rush metrics, the Lions offense is in the top five, and the Cowboys defense is outside the top 10.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | -0.090 | 12 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 5 | -5.4% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 4.30 | 13 | 10 |
Coming off the bye week, the Lions have had extra time to prepare for the Cowboys pass rush, and they’re healthy: RB D’Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder) practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so he’s likely to play, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) practiced fully, and his presence on the field should prevent the Cowboys from stacking the box against the run.
With their offensive line, the Lions can dominate the ground game and protect QB Jared Goff, who has been effective this year, ranking top-12 in both AY/A (7.5) and QBR (57.6).
And that means the Lions can cover.
Best Line: Lions +7 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Lions +7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions +5.5
Limit: Lions +6.5
View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Check out our Giants at Jaguars matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: TIAA Bank Field
- TV: FOX
Giants at Jaguars: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Jaguars -3
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Jaguars -165, Giants +140
Giants at Jaguars: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Jaguars – 35% bets, 49% money
- Over/Under: Under – 47% bets, 74% money
- Moneyline: Giants – 50% bets, 75% money
Giants at Jaguars: Injuries
Giants: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Cordale Flott | CB | Calf | DNP |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Jason Pinnock | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Oshane Ximines | OLB | Quad | DNP |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | Shoulder | LP |
| Jon Feliciano | C | Groin | LP |
| Azeez Ojulari | LB | Calf | LP |
| Andrew Thomas | OT | Elbow | LP |
Giants: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Darrian Beavers | ILB | IR |
| D.J. Davidson | DL | IR |
| Tony Jefferson | S | IR |
| Collin Johnson | WR | IR |
| Shane Lemieux | G | IR |
| Marcus McKethan | OL | IR |
| Aaron Robinson | CB | IR |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | IR |
| Elerson Smith | OLB | IR |
| Rodarius Williams | CB | IR |
| Nick Gates | C | PUP |
| Matt Peart | T | PUP |
Jaguars: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jamal Agnew | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Shaquill Griffin | CB | Back | DNP |
| Foley Fatukasi | DE | Quadricep | LP |
| DaVon Hamilton | NT | Foot | LP |
| Marvin Jones | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Foye Oluokun | OLB | Calf | LP |
Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ben Bartch | OL | IR |
| K’Lavon Chaisson | OLB | IR |
| Jordan Smith | OLB | IR |
Giants at Jaguars: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Giants Trends
- 2022 Giants: 5-1 ATS (60.5% ROI)
- QB Daniel Jones: 13-6 ATS (32.4% ROI) on road
- QB Daniel Jones: 21-13 ATS (18.9% ROI) as underdog
- QB Daniel Jones: 12-4 ATS (45.1% ROI) as road underdog
Jaguars Trends
- 2022 Jaguars: 2-4 ATS (26.2% ROI for faders)
- QB Trevor Lawrence: 7-16 ATS (32.7% ROI for faders)
Giants at Jaguars: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Giants Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.053 | 8 | -0.047 | 9 | 1 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 18 | 41.3% | 6 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | 5.5% | 13 | -2.1% | 10 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.092 | 11 | -0.03 | 9 | -2 |
| Dropback SR | 46.0% | 17 | 44.1% | 11 | -6 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.1% | 12 | 4.8% | 13 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.5% | 31 | 4.5% | 30 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.002 | 9 | -0.078 | 17 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 40.7% | 18 | 36.2% | 6 | -12 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.3% | 11 | -11.8% | 9 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.37 | 17 | 4.00 | 5 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.2 | 8 | -13 |
| Points per Game | 21.2 | 18 | 19 | 9 | -9 |
Jaguars Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.052 | 9 | 0.053 | 22 | 13 |
| Total SR | 47.3% | 6 | 45.1% | 20 | 14 |
| Total DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 9.8% | 30 | 19 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.116 | 8 | 0.059 | 14 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 51.1% | 4 | 46.0% | 17 | 13 |
| Pass DVOA | 25.1% | 8 | 12.0% | 20 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.5% | 9 | 6.0% | 24 | 15 |
| Rush EPA | -0.037 | 15 | 0.043 | 29 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 42.1% | 12 | 43.8% | 24 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | -7.7% | 17 | 6.6% | 28 | 11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 30 | 5.05 | 30 | 0 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.8 | 23 | 12 |
| Points per Game | 23 | 15 | 18.8 | 7 | -8 |
Giants at Jaguars: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.099 | 11 |
| AY/A | 6.5 | 19 |
| QBR | 54.7 | 14 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 20 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -30.1
2022: Trevor Lawrence
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.095 | 12 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 15 |
| QBR | 55 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.0 | 17 |
Career: Trevor Lawrence
- AY/A: 5.6
- QB Elo per Game: -42.9
Key Matchup: Giants RB Saquon Barkley vs. Jaguars Rush Defense
We all know what the Giants want to do in this game. They want to run the ball. They literally run more than they pass (52.0% rush rate), which is hard to do in today’s NFL — but I guess that’s what you do when you have Daniel Jones at quarterback and Saquon Barkley at running back.
Barkley leads the league with 119 carries, and we see the Barkley-heavy Giants backfield as having a significant edge over the Jaguars defensive line and linebacking unit.
| Rank | RBs | Opp Defense | DL Rank | LBs Rank | RB-DL Edge | RB-LB Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYG | JAX | 13 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
As mediocre as the Giants are on offense — 43.8% success rate (No. 18), 5.1 yards per play (No. 21) — they’ve been good running the ball, ranking No. 9 in rush EPA per play (-0.002), whereas the Jaguars defense has been average against the run (-0.078 rush EPA, No. 17).
Barkley (shoulder), LT Andrew Thomas (elbow) and C Jon Feliciano (groin) are all dealing with injuries, but they practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so they should play this weekend.
I have these two teams as about even in my power ratings. And in 2022 the difference between Jones and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been marginal and maybe nonexistent.
- Daniel Jones: 0.099 EPA + CPOE (No. 11) | 54.7 QBR (No. 14)
- Trevor Lawrence: 0.095 EPA + CPOE (No. 12) | 55 QBR (No. 13)
And I don’t see the Jaguars as having a home-field advantage of three points.
So if the Giants — really Barkley — can run the ball effectively against the Jaguars, they have a good chance to cover.
Best Line: Giants +3 (-110, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Giants +2 (-104)
Personal Projection: Giants +1.25
Limit: Giants +2
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Check out our Steelers at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: NBC
Steelers at Dolphins: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Dolphins -7
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -335, Steelers +270
Steelers at Dolphins: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Dolphins – 56% bets, 74% money
- Over/Under: Over – 32% bets, 56% money
- Moneyline: Steelers – 46% bets, 77% money
Steelers at Dolphins: Injuries
Steelers: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Larry Ogunjobi | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Steven Sims | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Mason Cole | OL | Foot, Ankle | LP |
| James Daniels | OL | Ankle | LP |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | Knee | LP |
| Myles Jack | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Cam Sutton | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Chris Wormley | DL | Ankle | LP |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | Concussion | FP |
| Kenny Pickett | QB | Concussion | FP |
| Levi Wallace | CB | Concussion | FP |
Steelers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Calvin Austin III | WR | IR |
| Karl Joseph | S | IR |
| Damontae Kazee | S | IR |
| DeMarvin Leal | DE | IR |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | IR |
| Anthony Miller | WR | IR |
| Carlins Platel | DB | IR |
| T.J. Watt | LB | IR |
Dolphins: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Terron Armstead | OT | Toe | DNP |
| Keion Crossen | DB | Knee | DNP |
| Melvin Ingram | OLB | Not Injury Related – Vet Rest | DNP |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | Back | DNP |
| Christian Wilkins | DE | Hand | DNP |
| Jerome Baker | ILB | Hip | LP |
| Xavien Howard | CB | Not Injury Related – Vet Rest | LP |
| Kader Kohou | CB | Oblique | LP |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | Knee | LP |
| Zach Sieler | DE | Hand | LP |
| Durham Smythe | TE | Hamstring | LP |
| Skylar Thompson | QB | R. Thumb | LP |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Shoulder | LP |
| Elijah Campbell | DB | Foot | FP |
| Tanner Conner | TE | Knee | FP |
| Greg Little | OT | Achilles | FP |
Dolphins: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Cethan Carter | TE | IR |
| Trey Flowers | LB | IR |
| Austin Jackson | OL | IR |
| John Lovett | FB | IR |
| Nik Needham | CB | IR |
| Adam Shaheen | TE | IR |
| Trill Williams | CB | IR |
| Byron Jones | CB | PUP |
Steelers at Dolphins: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Steelers Trends
- 2022 Steelers: 2-3-1 ATS (12.4% ROI for faders)
- HC Mike Tomlin: 47-25-3 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 39-36 ML (34.9% ROI) as underdog
Dolphins Trends
- 2022 Dolphins: 3-3 ATS (-4.1% ROI)
- 2022 Dolphins: 3-0 ATS (91.8% ROI) in QB Tua Tagovailoa’s three full starts
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 10-3 ATS (47.3% ROI) at home
Steelers at Dolphins: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Steelers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.069 | 25 | 0.068 | 28 | 3 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 22 | 46.6% | 26 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | -8.1% | 24 | 8.3% | 25 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.07 | 27 | 0.184 | 29 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 22 | 51.7% | 29 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.1% | 20 | 23.4% | 31 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 11 | 6.5% | 18 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.068 | 22 | -0.139 | 6 | -16 |
| Rush SR | 40.5% | 19 | 37.6% | 9 | -10 |
| Rush DVOA | -21.4% | 31 | -13.4% | 7 | -24 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.10 | 26 | 3.78 | 4 | -22 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.9 | 25 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 16.2 | 30 | 25.8 | 27 | -3 |
Dolphins Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.048 | 12 | 0.053 | 22 | 10 |
| Total SR | 46.2% | 11 | 44.8% | 19 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 12.7% | 6 | 0.5% | 15 | 9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.111 | 9 | 0.077 | 16 | 7 |
| Dropback SR | 48.6% | 9 | 47.8% | 24 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 32.8% | 5 | 8.1% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.4% | 19 | 6.1% | 23 | 4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.079 | 23 | 0.011 | 27 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 41.3% | 14 | 39.6% | 13 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.6% | 15 | -10.1% | 10 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.07 | 28 | 4.11 | 7 | -21 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 5 | 5.7 | 20 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 21.8 | 17 | 24.3 | 23 | 6 |
Steelers at Dolphins: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Kenny Pickett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 4.3 | 34 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.2 | 28 |
Career: Kenny Pickett
- AY/A: 4.3
- QB Elo per Game: 1.9
2022: Tua Tagovailoa
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.188 | 2 |
| AY/A | 9.2 | 1 |
| QBR | 80 | 1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.7 | 14 |
Career: Tua Tagovailoa
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -5.0
Key Matchup: Dolphins Pass Offense vs. Steelers Pass Defense
Come on. QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has cleared the league’s protocol and is ready to return to action, so I think this line is way off, and I believe that I’ve shown remarkable restraint in getting my projection down to “only†Dolphins -7.75.
In my first set of Week 7 projections, I had this number WAY higher — I don’t even want to say how high, because it will make you question my entire process — but I’m high on the Dolphins because I am buying Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins have had a top-10 pass offense this year, and that’s with QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson playing most of the past three weeks.
| Metric | Offense | Rank |
| Dropback EPA | 0.111 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 48.6% | 9 |
| Pass DVOA | 32.8% | 5 |
Nothing against Bridgewater and Thompson — but they’re not Tagovailoa, who has been a legitimate top-tier quarterback this year.
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.188 | 2 |
| AY/A | 9.2 | 1 |
| QBR | 80 | 1 |
Granted, he has had limited action — but so have Bridgewater and Thompson, and in a head-to-head comparison Tagovailoa massively outshines them.
| Statistic | Tua Tagovailoa |
Bridgewater & Thompson
|
| Attempts | 115 | 106 |
| Completion Rate | 69.6% | 59.4% |
| AY/A | 9.2 | 6.2 |
| TD Rate | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| INT Rate | 2.6% | 3.8% |
| Sack Rate | 5.0% | 7.8% |
It’s not just that HC Mike McDaniel has a good offensive system, although he certainly does — and that has contributed to Tagovailoa’s third-year progress.
And it’s not just that whoever throws the ball for the Dolphins has the benefit of throwing to WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (and I guess also TE Mike Gesicki).
Tagovailoa has clearly outperformed his backups and played at a high level in 2022 — and that’s not surprising given everything we know about him to this point.
Tagovailoa was the No. 1 quarterback in his recruitment class. He won a come-from-behind off-the-bench championship at Alabama against Georgia as a true freshman. He was one of the best college quarterbacks we’ve ever seen. He was selected No. 5 overall — and he fell that far only because of a catastrophic and career-threatening hip injury. And then he had an understandably uneven adjustment to the NFL in his first two seasons as he recovered from that injury and navigated offensive coordinator incompetence and rollover in Miami.
Based on that information, we should probably take Tagovailoa’s 2022 production at close to face value: He’s playing like a good quarterback because he’s probably a good quarterback — far better than his backups — and his absence in Weeks 4-6 highlights just how much his presence in Weeks 1-3 meant to the team.
| Stat | Weeks 1-3 | Weeks 4-6 |
| Points per Game | 27.7 | 16.0 |
| Win-Loss Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| ATS Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
Relative to his backups, Tagovailoa (I now think) is worth quite a bit to the spread — far more than whatever is implied in my conservative projection of Dolphins -7.75 — so I expect the Dolphins to outperform expectations, especially against a Steelers pass defense that is injured.
Last week, the Steelers were without four starters in their secondary: CBs Cameron Sutton (hamstring), Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and Levi Wallace (concussion) and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee).
Even if all those guys return, they won’t be at full health — and that’s not taking into account the absence of All-Pro EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR) and possible absence of DT Larry Ogunjobi (knee), who missed practice on Wednesday.
Against a Steelers pass defense that is mediocre at best …
| Metric | Defense | Rank |
| Dropback EPA | 0.077 | 16 |
| Dropback SR | 47.8% | 24 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.1% | 17 |
… the Dolphins should be able to move the ball through the air, especially at home.
Best Line: Dolphins -7 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Dolphins -7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Dolphins -7.75
Limit: Dolphins -7
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Saints +2.5 at Cardinals
- Lions +7.5 at Cowboys
- Commanders +5.5 vs. Packers
- Giants +3.5 at Jaguars
- Bears +8.5 at Patriots
Also in consideration are:
- Ravens -6.5 vs. Browns
- Falcons +6.5 at Bengals
- Seahawks +6.5 at Chargers
- Dolphins -7.5 vs. Steelers
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (Sun. 10/23): Here’s the tweet.
Week 6 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 7-3 (+3.7 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 39-29-1 (+7.05 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 16-14
Previous Best Bets Pieces
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
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