Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 8 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 7 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 6-7 (-1.62 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 45-36-1 (+5.43 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 19-16
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 8 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 8 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Jaguars are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 26, 4 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| TB | BAL | 1 | 0.25 | -0.75 |
| JAX | DEN | -2.5 | -2.25 | 0.25 |
| ATL | CAR | -4.5 | -5.5 | -1 |
| MIN | ARI | -3.5 | -3.75 | -0.25 |
| DET | MIA | 3.5 | 3.25 | -0.25 |
| DAL | CHI | -9.5 | -9.25 | 0.25 |
| NO | LV | 1.5 | -1 | -2.5 |
| NYJ | NE | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| PHI | PIT | -10.5 | -10.75 | -0.25 |
| HOU | TEN | 2 | 2.25 | 0.25 |
| LAR | SF | 1.5 | -0.25 | -1.75 |
| IND | WAS | -3 | -3.25 | -0.25 |
| SEA | NYG | -3 | -2 | 1 |
| BUF | GB | -11 | -11.75 | -0.75 |
| CLE | CIN | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 |
Based on my current projections and the best odds available in the market, I’m willing to bet on the following teams at these lines.
- Saints +1.5 vs. Raiders
- Patriots -1.5 at Jets
- Eagles -10 vs. Steelers
- Colts -2.5 vs. Commanders
- Giants +3 at Seahawks
Freedman’s Week 8 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Check out our Raiders at Saints matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome
- TV: CBS
Raiders at Saints: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -1.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -126, Saints +108
Raiders at Saints: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Saints – 30% bets, 32% money
- Over/Under: Under – 18% bets, 31% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 23% bets, 26% money
Raiders at Saints: Injuries
Raiders: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Johnathan Abram | S | Illness | DNP |
| Davante Adams | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Tashawn Bower | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Divine Deablo | LB | Back/Ankle | DNP |
| Clelin Ferrell | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Jayon Brown | ILB | Hamstring | LP |
| Derek Carr | QB | Back | LP |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | OT | Knee | LP |
| Mack Hollins | WR | Heel | LP |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | Foot | LP |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | Hip | LP |
| DJ Turner | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Darren Waller | TE | Hamstring | LP |
Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Justin Herron | T | IR |
| Nate Hobbs | CB | IR |
| Jordan Jenkins | DE | IR |
| Micah Kiser | LB | IR |
| Sincere McCormick | RB | IR |
| Brandon Parker | T | IR |
Saints: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Michael Thomas | WR | Foot | DNP |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Adam Trautman | TE | Ankle | DNP |
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | Abdomen | DNP |
| Andrus Peat | G | Chest | LP |
| Keith Kirkwood | WR | Ankle | LP |
| Paulson Adebo | CB | Knee | LP |
| Ryan Ramczyk | OT | Rest | LP |
| Calvin Throckmorton | OT | Hip | FP |
| Payton Turner | DE | Chest | FP |
| Jameis Winston | QB | Back/Ankle | FP |
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Bradley Roby | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Raiders at Saints: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Raiders Trends
- 2022 Raiders: 3-3 ATS (-3.3% ROI)
- QB Derek Carr: 15-25-1 ATS (20.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- 2022 Favorites: 45-62-1 ATS (10.8% ROI for faders)
Saints Trends
- 2022 Saints: 2-5 ATS (35.2% ROI for faders)
- 2022 Saints: 2-2 ATS (-4.3% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
- QB Andy Dalton: 41-31-2 ATS (12.0% ROI) as underdog
Raiders at Saints: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.091 | 4 | 0.029 | 20 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 9 | 43.3% | 11 | 2 |
| Total DVOA | 5.7% | 12 | 3.5% | 22 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.131 | 7 | 0.137 | 29 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 46.9% | 18 | 47.3% | 22 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.8% | 18 | 10.6% | 20 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.7% | 17 | 6.6% | 18 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | -0.131 | 7 | 2 |
| Rush SR | 45.3% | 5 | 37.3% | 7 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.9% | 1 | -6.0% | 19 | 18 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.69 | 1 | 4.53 | 16 | 15 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 7 | 5.6 | 17 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 27.2 | 3 | 28.6 | 31 | 28 |
Saints Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.004 | 17 | 0.062 | 26 | 9 |
| Total SR | 48.4% | 4 | 46.0% | 27 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | -2.5% | 20 | 9.2% | 27 | 7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.003 | 19 | 0.178 | 31 | 12 |
| Dropback SR | 48.8% | 9 | 48.4% | 27 | 18 |
| Pass DVOA | -3.3% | 25 | 19.7% | 30 | 5 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 15 | 5.4% | 25 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | -0.007 | 12 | -0.149 | 3 | -9 |
| Rush SR | 47.8% | 2 | 41.7% | 17 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.8% | 3 | -5.9% | 20 | 17 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.05 | 2 | 4.18 | 7 | 5 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 4 | 5.8 | 22 | 18 |
| Points per Game | 25 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 19 |
Raiders at Saints: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.117 | 7 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 11 |
| QBR | 62 | 7 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.4 | 16 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.8
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.089 | 13 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 15 |
| QBR | 51 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.2 | 28 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -6.4
Key Matchup: Saints Rush Offense vs. Raiders Rush Defense
For the Saints, No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot) has been out since Week 4. No. 2 WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) has been out since Week 5. No. 1 TE Adam Trautman (ankle), since early in Week 6.
Even so, the Saints have managed 31 points per game over the past month with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton.
How?
The running game.
The Saints have one of the league’s best rush attacks, and the Raiders are mediocre against the run, often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and sustain drives on the ground.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush SR | 0.478 | 2 | 0.417 | 17 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.118 | 3 | -0.059 | 20 | 17 |
The Raiders are also exploitable via the air, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA per play (0.178, No. 31) and dropback SR (48.4%, No. 27) — but with their pass-catching injuries the Saints will likely rely on their running game in Week 8, and their relative edge against the Raiders rush defense should enable them to keep this contest close.
In the Thursday lookahead market, the Saints were -1.5, and I still think they should be favored.
Best Line: Saints +1.5 (-106, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Saints +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Saints -1
If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Check out our Patriots at Jets matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Jets: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Patriots -1.5
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -130, Jets +110
Patriots at Jets: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Patriots – 59% bets, 77% money
- Over/Under: Under – 65% bets, 94% money
- Moneyline: Patriots – 50% bets, 69% money
Patriots at Jets: Injuries
Patriots: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| David Andrews | C | Concussion | DNP |
| Christian Barmore | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Ankle | DNP |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | Toe | LP |
| Anfernee Jennings | LB | Calf | LP |
| Jonathan Jones | CB | Ankle | LP |
| Mike Onwenu | G | Ankle | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Shoulder | LP |
| Josh Uche | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| Isaiah Wynn | OT | Shoulder | LP |
Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Yodny Cajuste | OL | IR |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | IR |
| Ty Montgomery | WR | IR |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | IR |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | IR |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | IR |
| Quinn Nordin | K | NFI |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | NFI |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | Retired |
| James White | RB | Retired |
Jets: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Corey Davis | WR | Knee | DNP |
| John Franklin-Myers | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Duane Brown | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| Jermaine Johnson II | DE | Ankle | LP |
| Quincy Williams | ILB | Ankle | LP |
| Ashtyn Davis | SAF | Hamstring | LP |
Jets: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Nick Bawden | FB | IR |
| Mekhi Becton | T | IR |
| George Fant | T | IR |
| Breece Hall | RB | IR |
| Max Mitchell | OL | IR |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | G | IR |
| Greg Senat | OL | NFI |
Patriots at Jets: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Patriots Trends
- 2022 Patriots: 3-3-1 ATS (-4% ROI)
- HC Bill Belichick: 50-22-1 ATS (37.5% ROI) off loss
- HC Bill Belichick: 56-17 ML (22% ROI) off loss
Jets Trends
- 2022 Jets: 5-2 ATS (36.6% ROI)
- HC Robert Saleh: 2-5 ATS (47.7% ROI for faders) in division
Patriots at Jets: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.01 | 14 | -0.033 | 10 | -4 |
| Total SR | 45.3% | 16 | 44.1% | 17 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | -7.1% | 23 | -2.9% | 10 | -13 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.004 | 18 | -0.008 | 10 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 47.3% | 15 | 43.9% | 9 | -6 |
| Pass DVOA | 2.6% | 22 | 0.4% | 10 | -12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.2% | 20 | 6.3% | 21 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | -0.072 | 14 | 9 |
| Rush SR | 42.6% | 11 | 44.4% | 24 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.9% | 16 | -7.2% | 14 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.94 | 4 | 4.24 | 10 | 6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 9 | 4.9 | 5 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 22.1 | 16 | 19.6 | 10 | -6 |
Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.042 | 24 | -0.049 | 7 | -17 |
| Total SR | 40.0% | 29 | 44.5% | 19 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | -3.7% | 21 | -5.4% | 9 | -12 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.076 | 28 | -0.097 | 4 | -24 |
| Dropback SR | 40.5% | 29 | 40.9% | 2 | -27 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.6% | 23 | -16.0% | 5 | -18 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 18 | 8.3% | 6 | -12 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | 0.019 | 28 | 23 |
| Rush SR | 39.1% | 22 | 49.7% | 32 | 10 |
| Rush DVOA | 3.4% | 11 | 7.5% | 28 | 17 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.45 | 17 | 4.80 | 26 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 22 | 5.4 | 12 | -10 |
| Points per Game | 22.7 | 14 | 20.9 | 14 | 0 |
Patriots at Jets: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mac Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.051 | 23 |
| AY/A | 5.5 | 35 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 22 |
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -22.8
2022: Zach Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 6.2 | 25 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.6 | 38 |
Career: Zach Wilson
- AY/A: 5.5
- QB Elo per Game: -119.2
Key Matchup: Patriots Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense
For the season, the Jets offense has ranked top-five in just one efficiency metric: Rush EPA per play (0.019, No. 5).
In fact, since QB Zach Wilson returned to action in Week 4 the Jets have ranked No. 1 in rush EPA per play (0.100) and given him outstanding support via the ground game.
But for the year the Jets are No. 22 in rush SR (39.1%), and since Week 4 they’ve improved to only No. 13 (42.3%).
What this means is that, on a down-to-down basis, the Jets have been neither consistent nor great running the ball. Rather, they’ve relied on big plays to move down the field — especially big plays from rookie RB Breece Hall (knee, IR).
But without Hall — as well as do-it-all OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps, IR), the team’s best run blocker — the Jets could struggle on the ground and might need Wilson to contribute more than he has to this point in the year.
And that feels like a problem given that the Patriots defense is top-six in every key pass efficiency metric while the Jets pass offense is no better than average.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | -0.076 | 28 | -0.097 | 4 | -24 |
| Dropback SR | 0.405 | 29 | 0.409 | 2 | -27 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.006 | 23 | -0.16 | 5 | -18 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 0.069 | 18 | 0.083 | 6 | -12 |
If the Jets can’t run the ball without Hall and Vera-Tucker — and if they can’t pass the ball against the Pats defense — how will they score enough points to cover?
Best Line: Patriots -1.5 (-107, PointsBets)
First Recommended: Patriots -1.5 (-107)
Personal Projection: Patriots -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
Check out our Steelers at Eagles matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field
- TV: CBS
Steelers at Eagles: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Eagles -10.5
- Over/Under: 43
- Moneyline: Eagles -500, Steelers +390
Steelers at Eagles: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Steelers – 36% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Under – 64% bets, 89% money
- Moneyline: Steelers – 5% bets, 25% money
Steelers at Eagles: Injuries
Steelers: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Josh Jackson | CB | Groin | DNP |
| Levi Wallace | CB | Shoulder | DNP |
| Montravius Adams | DT | Hamstring | DNP |
| Larry Ogunjobi | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Steven Sims | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | Ankle | LP |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | CB | Hamstring | FP |
Steelers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Calvin Austin III | WR | IR |
| Karl Joseph | S | IR |
| Damontae Kazee | S | IR |
| DeMarvin Leal | DE | IR |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | IR |
| Anthony Miller | WR | IR |
| Carlins Platel | DB | IR |
| T.J. Watt | LB | IR |
Eagles: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Brandon Graham | DE | Hamstring | DNP |
| James Bradberry | CB | Rest | LP |
| A.J. Brown | WR | Rest | LP |
| Fletcher Cox | DE | Rest | LP |
| Landon Dickerson | G | Rest | LP |
| Patrick Johnson | LB | Concussion | LP |
| Jason Kelce | C | Rest | LP |
| Isaac Seumalo | G | Ankle, rest | LP |
| Darius Slay | CB | Rest | LP |
| Josh Sweat | DE | Rest | LP |
| Josh Jobe | CB | Shoulder | FP |
Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Derek Barnett | DE | IR |
| Jaeden Graham | TE | IR |
| Janarius Robinson | DE | IR |
| Tyree Jackson | TE | PUP |
| Brett Toth | T/G | PUP |
Steelers at Eagles: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Steelers Trends
- 2022 Steelers: 3-3-1 ATS (-3.1% ROI)
- HC Mike Tomlin: 48-25-3 ATS (27.7% ROI) as underdog
Eagles Trends
- 2022 Eagles: 4-2 ATS (28.6% ROI)
- QB Jalen Hurts: 8-3-1 ATS (37.0% ROI) at home
Steelers at Eagles: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Steelers Offense vs. Eagles Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.082 | 28 | -0.094 | 4 | -24 |
| Total SR | 41.9% | 26 | 43.9% | 15 | -11 |
| Total DVOA | -9.2% | 24 | -17.7% | 4 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.082 | 29 | -0.143 | 2 | -27 |
| Dropback SR | 44.0% | 22 | 42.9% | 6 | -16 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.1% | 21 | -27.5% | 2 | -19 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.5% | 9 | 7.7% | 11 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.082 | 21 | 0.007 | 25 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 37.9% | 25 | 46.0% | 28 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -20.7% | 30 | -1.0% | 22 | -8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.20 | 25 | 4.77 | 24 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 32 | 4.7 | 2 | -30 |
| Points per Game | 15.3 | 31 | 17.5 | 4 | -27 |
Eagles Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.106 | 3 | 0.042 | 22 | 19 |
| Total SR | 48.3% | 5 | 44.5% | 19 | 14 |
| Total DVOA | 13.9% | 4 | -0.5% | 14 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.177 | 4 | 0.084 | 18 | 14 |
| Dropback SR | 47.4% | 14 | 47.4% | 23 | 9 |
| Pass DVOA | 27.5% | 6 | 6.9% | 15 | 9 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.5% | 21 | 5.3% | 26 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | 0.023 | 4 | -0.028 | 20 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 49.2% | 1 | 39.6% | 13 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.2% | 5 | -10.7% | 9 | 4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.48 | 15 | 4.27 | 11 | -4 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5.7 | 19 | 7 |
| Points per Game | 26.8 | 4 | 23.1 | 22 | 18 |
Steelers at Eagles: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Kenny Pickett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 3.9 | 36 |
| QBR | 41.1 | 23 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.3 | 33 |
Career: Kenny Pickett
- AY/A: 3.9
- QB Elo per Game: -13.8
2022: Jalen Hurts
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.119 | 6 |
| AY/A | 8.4 | 4 |
| QBR | 59.1 | 9 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.0 | 8 |
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 50.0
Key Matchup: Eagles Pass Defense vs. Steelers Pass Offense
The Steelers have one of the league’s best pass-catching quintets with WRs Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and George Pickens, TE Pat Freiermuth and RB Najee Harris — but their passing game has been waylaid by the poor performance of rookie QB Kenny Pickett, who’s dead last with a 3.9 AY/A.
How will they be able to move the ball through the air against the Eagles defense, which is top-six against the pass?
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | -0.082 | 29 | -0.143 | 2 | -27 |
| Dropback SR | 0.44 | 22 | 0.429 | 6 | -16 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.041 | 21 | -0.275 | 2 | -19 |
The answer: They won’t. The Eagles are too strong at cornerback.
On the perimeter, James Bradberry has the size (6’1″ and 210 pounds) and physicality to challenge Claypool and Pickens, and Darius Slay has the quickness (6.90-second three-cone drill) to stick with Johnson. In the slot, Avonte Maddox has steadily developed into one of the league’s best middle-of-the-field pass defenders thanks to his elite combination of speed (4.39-second 40-yard dash) and shiftiness (6.51-second three-cone).
The Eagles are explosive enough on offense to build a double-digit lead in the first half, and their pass defense is stout enough to keep it in the second half.
Best Line: Eagles -10 (-110, PointsBets)
First Recommended: Eagles -10 (-110)
Personal Projection: Eagles -10.75
View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts
Check out our Commanders at Colts matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
- TV: FOX
Commanders at Colts: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Colts -3
- Over/Under: 39.5
- Moneyline: Colts -148, Commanders +130
Commanders at Colts: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Commanders – 65% bets, 72% money
- Over/Under: Under – 79% bets, 93% money
- Moneyline: Commanders – 42% bets, 45% money
Commanders at Colts: Injuries
Commanders: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Saahdiq Charles | G | Illness | DNP |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Cole Holcomb | LB | Foot | DNP |
| William Jackson | CB | Back | DNP |
| Cole Turner | TE | Concussion | DNP |
| Dyami Brown | WR | Groin | LP |
| Logan Thomas | TE | Calf | LP |
| Jonathan Williams | RB | Knee | LP |
| Sam Cosmi | OT | Finger | FP |
| Taylor Heinicke | QB | Calf | FP |
Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Willie Beavers | G | IR |
| Tariq Castro-Fields | CB | IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | IR |
| Curtis Hodges | TE | IR |
| Phidarian Mathis | DT | IR |
| Chase Roullier | C | IR |
| Wes Schweitzer | G | IR |
| Carson Wentz | QB | IR |
| Chase Young | DE | PUP |
Colts: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Stephon Gilmore | CB | Rest | DNP |
| Yannick Ngakoue | DE | Rest | DNP |
| Kwity Paye | DE | Ankle | DNP |
| Matt Ryan | QB | Right shoulder | DNP |
| Grant Stuard | LB | Pectoral | DNP |
| JoJo Domann | LB | Abdomen | LP |
| Ryan Kelly | C | Knee | LP |
| Keke Coutee | WR | Concussion | FP |
| Zaire Franklin | OLB | Shoulder | FP |
| Shaquille Leonard | OLB | Back | FP |
| Luke Rhodes | LS | Shoulder | FP |
Colts: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Trevor Denbow | S | IR |
| Ashton Dulin | WR | IR |
| Carter O’Donnell | T | IR |
| Andrew Ogletree | TE | IR |
| Rigoberto Sanchez | P | IR |
| Armani Watts | S | IR |
| Khari Willis | S | Retired |
Commanders at Colts: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Commanders Trends
- 2022 Commanders: 3-4 ATS (10.2% ROI for faders)
Colts Trends
- 2022 Colts: 3-4 ATS (8.6% ROI for faders)
- HC Frank Reich: 24-17-2 ATS (13.2% ROI) out of division
Commanders at Colts: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Commanders Offense vs. Colts Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.079 | 27 | 0.004 | 14 | -13 |
| Total SR | 38.3% | 30 | 45.7% | 25 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | -16.7% | 28 | -2.3% | 11 | -17 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.065 | 27 | 0.098 | 21 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 41.0% | 27 | 50.4% | 28 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | -7.9% | 29 | 8.4% | 16 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.2% | 29 | 8.0% | 10 | -19 |
| Rush EPA | -0.104 | 22 | -0.115 | 10 | -12 |
| Rush SR | 33.1% | 31 | 39.8% | 14 | -17 |
| Rush DVOA | -20.4% | 29 | -13.9% | 8 | -21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.11 | 26 | 3.86 | 3 | -23 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 29 | 5.1 | 8 | -21 |
| Points per Game | 17.9 | 25 | 20 | 13 | -12 |
Colts Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.097 | 30 | 0.003 | 13 | -17 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 23 | 41.0% | 3 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | -26.8% | 32 | 1.2% | 16 | -16 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.051 | 26 | 0.08 | 16 | -10 |
| Dropback SR | 45.6% | 19 | 44.3% | 11 | -8 |
| Pass DVOA | -20.2% | 30 | 15.2% | 29 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.4% | 23 | 8.2% | 7 | -16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.197 | 31 | -0.128 | 9 | -22 |
| Rush SR | 35.5% | 30 | 35.5% | 3 | -27 |
| Rush DVOA | -28.6% | 32 | -18.6% | 4 | -28 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.24 | 9 | -22 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 27 | 5.5 | 16 | -11 |
| Points per Game | 16.1 | 30 | 22.3 | 19 | -11 |
Commanders at Colts: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Taylor Heinicke
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.6 | 35 |
Career: Taylor Heinicke
- AY/A: 6.1
- QB Elo per Game: -35.8
2022: Sam Ehlinger
Ehlinger has no NFL passing statistics.
Career: Sam Ehlinger
- AY/A: N/A
- QB Elo per Game: N/A
Key Matchup: Colts Rush Offense vs. Commanders Rush Defense
Benched QB Matt Ryan hasn’t been great this year (6.0 AY/A, No. 29) — but the Colts running game has been worse.
Astoundingly, the Colts have a bottom-three rushing offense, and now they’re taking on a defense that’s top-10 against the run.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.197 | 31 | -0.128 | 9 | -22 |
| Rush SR | 0.355 | 30 | 0.355 | 3 | -27 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.286 | 32 | -0.186 | 4 | -28 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.24 | 9 | -22 |
But maybe — maybe — new starting QB Sam Ehlinger will be able to help out in the ground game.
He’s a sixth-rounder making his first NFL start, so I’m probably just burning money by betting on him, but he was fantastic in the preseason with 24-of-29 for 289-4-0 passing. Under the guidance of HC Frank Reich, he might be able to play well enough within the system to hold serve against a Commanders defense that ranks No. 29 in pass DVOA (15.2%).
And he has an explosiveness and mobility that Ryan has never had. In four years of college ball, Ehlinger was 459-2,510-33 rushing (excluding sacks, per Sports Info Solutions). Most importantly, he had 173 scrambles — and that’s why he’s now the Colts starter.
The Colts need a quarterback who can (hopefully) help them juice the rushing game by turning pressured dropbacks and sacks into chain-moving improvised carries.
Before Ryan’s benching was announced …
… this line was -4 on Sunday night and Monday morning. Within an hour of the announcement, the line had moved to -2, where it met resistance and was bet back to the key number of -3, where it currently is at most sportsbooks.
That’s the sign that the market thinks Ehlinger can play — or at least keep this game close.
Best Line: Colts -2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Colts -2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Colts -3.25
Note: I first bet this game via the lookahead line of Commanders +6. I am now looking to middle via Colts -2.5.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Check out our Giants at Seahawks matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Lumen Field
- TV: FOX
Giants at Seahawks: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Seahawks -3
- Over/Under: 45
- Moneyline: Seahawks -152, Giants +133
Giants at Seahawks: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26
- Spread: Seahawks – 56% bets, 71% money
- Over/Under: Under – 24% bets, 38% money
- Moneyline: Seahawks – 54% bets, 62% money
Giants at Seahawks: Injuries
Giants: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Daniel Bellinger | TE | Eye | DNP |
| Ben Bredeson | G | Knee | DNP |
| Cordale Flott | CB | Calf | DNP |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Evan Neal | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Oshane Ximines | OLB | Quad | DNP |
| Tyre Phillips | G | Toe | LP |
| Jason Pinnock | CB | Foot | LP |
| Leonard Williams | DE | Elbow | LP |
Giants: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Darrian Beavers | ILB | IR |
| D.J. Davidson | DL | IR |
| Tony Jefferson | S | IR |
| Collin Johnson | WR | IR |
| Shane Lemieux | G | IR |
| Marcus McKethan | OL | IR |
| Azeez Ojulari | OLB | IR |
| Aaron Robinson | CB | IR |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | IR |
| Elerson Smith | OLB | IR-Return |
| Rodarius Williams | CB | IR-Return |
| Matt Peart | T | PUP |
Seahawks: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| DK Metcalf | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Penny Hart | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Phil Haynes | G | Concussion | DNP |
| Nick Bellore | LB | Concussion | DNP |
| Poona Ford | DT | Ankle | DNP |
| Darrell Taylor | OLB | Groin | DNP |
| Gabe Jackson | G | Hip/knee | LP |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Artie Burns | CB | Groin | LP |
| Ryan Neal | S | Ankle | LP |
| Quinton Jefferosn | DT | Foot | LP |
| Sidney Jones | CB | Groin | LP |
| Al Woods | DT | Knee | FP |
Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jamal Adams | SS | IR |
| Isaiah Dunn | CB | IR |
| Travis Homer | RB | IR |
| Darryl Johnson | LB | IR |
| Tyler Ott | LS | IR |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | IR |
| Alton Robinson | LB | IR |
| Tyreke Smith | LB | IR |
| Cody Thompson | WR | IR |
| Tre Brown | CB | PUP |
| Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | PUP |
| Jon Rhattigan | LB | PUP |
Giants at Seahawks: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Giants Trends
- 2022 Giants: 6-1 ATS (65.5% ROI)
- QB Daniel Jones: 14-6 ATS (35.6% ROI) on road
- QB Daniel Jones: 22-13 ATS (21.1% ROI) as underdog
- QB Daniel Jones: 13-4 ATS (48.1% ROI) as road underdog
Seahawks Trends
- 2022 Seahawks: 4-3 ATS (9.1% ROI)
Giants at Seahawks: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Giants Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.075 | 7 | 0.059 | 25 | 18 |
| Total SR | 45.5% | 15 | 42.7% | 10 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | 10.9% | 7 | 2.7% | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.107 | 10 | 0.122 | 25 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 47.0% | 16 | 45.1% | 15 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | 21.6% | 8 | 9.9% | 19 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.6% | 30 | 7.3% | 15 | -15 |
| Rush EPA | 0.030 | 3 | -0.033 | 18 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 43.4% | 10 | 39.3% | 12 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 8.2% | 6 | -6.1% | 17 | 11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.42 | 18 | 4.69 | 21 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 20 | 6 | 27 | 7 |
| Points per Game | 21.4 | 18 | 26.6 | 28 | 10 |
Seahawks Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.083 | 5 | 0.057 | 24 | 19 |
| Total SR | 46.1% | 11 | 45.0% | 21 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 14.0% | 3 | 11.8% | 29 | 26 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.153 | 5 | 0.088 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 52.7% | 3 | 45.8% | 18 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.4% | 4 | 14.4% | 26 | 22 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.7% | 25 | 5.0% | 28 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.030 | 14 | 0.007 | 25 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 35.6% | 29 | 43.7% | 22 | -7 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.9% | 10 | 8.1% | 30 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.30 | 22 | 5.19 | 31 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 6.3 | 2 | 5.9 | 25 | 23 |
| Points per Game | 26.1 | 5 | 18.6 | 6 | 1 |
Giants at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.107 | 8 |
| AY/A | 6.6 | 20 |
| QBR | 62.7 | 6 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.5 | 14 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -24.4
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.16 | 3 |
| AY/A | 8.4 | 4 |
| QBR | 66.8 | 4 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.0 | 11 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -45.3
Key Matchup: Giants Rush Offense vs. Seahawks Rush Defnse
We all know what the Giants want to do in this game. They want to run the ball. They literally run more than they pass (52.8% rush rate), which is hard to do in today’s NFL — but I guess that’s what you do when you have Daniel Jones at quarterback and Saquon Barkley at running back.
Barkley leads the league with 143 carries, and we see the Barkley-heavy Giants backfield as having a significant edge over the Seahawks defensive line and linebacking unit.
| Rank | RBs | Opp Defense | DL Rank | LBs Rank | RB-DL Edge | RB-LB Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYG | SEA | 26 | 19 | 24 | 17 |
And I can’t believe I’m saying this, but we also shouldn’t overlook Jones as a running threat: He has had six carries in every game this year. Among all quarterbacks, he’s No. 4 in rush attempts (58) and No. 3 in rush yards (343).
Last week, he and Barkley both had 100-plus yards rushing.
The Giants will be without RT Evan Neal (knee) and maybe LG Ben Bredeson (knee) — but neither has a big edge in run blocking over backups RT Tyre Phillips and LG Joshua Ezeudu.
As mediocre as the Giants are on offense — 45.5% success rate (No. 15), 5.2 yards per play (No. 20) — they’ve been good running the ball, ranking No. 3 in rush EPA per play (0.030), whereas the Seahawks defense has been average against the run (-0.033 rush EPA, No. 18).
I have the Giants power rated ahead of the Seahawks, primarily because I trust HC Brian Daboll more than HC Pete Carroll as a situational decision maker. And as strong as the home-field advantage is at Lumen Field, no team has a three-point HFA in today’s NFL.
So if the Giants can run the ball effectively against the Seahawks, they have a good chance to cover.
Best Line: Giants +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Giants +2.5 (-104)
Personal Projection: Giants +2
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Ravens
- Broncos +3.5 vs. Jaguars (in London)
- Dolphins -2.5 at Lions
- Colts -2.5 vs. Commanders
- Giants +3.5 at Seahawks
Also in consideration are:
- Saints +1.5 vs. Raiders
- Patriots -1.5 at Jets
- Eagles -10.5 vs. Steelers
- Rams +1.5 vs. 49ers
- Bills -10.5 vs. Packers
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (SUN. 10/30): Here’s the tweet.
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