Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 9 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 8 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 53-44-1 (+4.71 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 9 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 9 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 2, at 2 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| HOU | PHI | 14 | 12.5 | -1.5 |
| ATL | LAC | 3.5 | 3.25 | -0.25 |
| DET | GB | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| CHI | MIA | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| CIN | CAR | -7.5 | -9.25 | -1.75 |
| JAX | LV | 1.5 | 1.25 | -0.25 |
| NE | IND | -5.5 | -5.25 | 0.25 |
| NYJ | BUF | 12.5 | 12.25 | -0.25 |
| WAS | MIN | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
| ARI | SEA | -2 | -1 | 1 |
| TB | LAR | -3 | -3.25 | -0.25 |
| KC | TEN | -12.5 | -11.5 | 1 |
| NO | BAL | 2.5 | -0.25 | -2.75 |
Based on my current spread projections, I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers
- Seahawks +2 at Cardinals
- Saints +2.5 vs. Ravens
Freedman’s Week 9 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
Check out our Panthers at Bengals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Paycor Superdome
- TV: FOX
Panthers at Bengals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Bengals -7.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Bengals -340, Panthers +275
Panthers at Bengals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.
- Spread: Bengals – 48% bets, 63% money
- Over/Under: Under – 33% bets, 64% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 26% bets, 87% money
Panthers at Bengals: Injuries
Panthers: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Juston Burris | SAF | Concussion | DNP |
| Donte Jackson | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Stephen Sullivan | TE | Illness | DNP |
| D’Onta Foreman | RB | Rest | DNP |
| Amare Barno | DE | Knee | LP |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | Ankle | LP |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | Ankle | LP |
| Frankie Luvu | OLB | Shoulder | LP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | |
| Jeremy Chinn | S | IR |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR |
| Pat Elflein | C/G | IR |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver III | CB | IR |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DR |
| Henry Anderson | DE | NFI |
Bengals: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chidobe Awuzie | CB | Knee | DNP |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | Hip | DNP |
| La’el Collins | OT | NIR – Rest | DNP |
| Tre Flowers | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Mike Hilton | CB | Finger | DNP |
| Josh Tupou | DT | Calf | DNP |
| Eli Apple | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Stanley Morgan | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Sam Hubbard | DE | Finger | FP |
| Samaje Perine | RB | Finger | FP |
Bengals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tycen Anderson | S | IR |
| Ben Brown | C | IR |
| Clark Harris | LS | IR |
| Elijah Holyfield | HB | IR |
| Desmond Noel | G | IR |
| Isaiah Prince | OT | IR |
| DJ Reader | DT | IR |
| Drew Sample | TE | IR |
| Brandon Wilson | S | PUP |
Panthers at Bengals: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Panthers ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-28.1% ROI)
- ML: 2-6 (4.4% ROI)
Bengals ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 5-3 (19.3% ROI)
- ML: 4-4 (-27.6% ROI)
Panthers at Bengals: Notable Trend
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow: 11-4 ATS (39.8% ROI) off loss
Panthers at Bengals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Panthers Offense vs. Bengals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 30 | -0.027 | 9 | -21 |
| Total SR | 37.7% | 32 | 43.1% | 10 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -14.7% | 28 | -5.7% | 9 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.165 | 32 | -0.038 | 7 | -25 |
| Dropback SR | 35.2% | 32 | 43.4% | 4 | -28 |
| Pass DVOA | -23.8% | 32 | -4.8% | 7 | -25 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 22 | 5.7% | 24 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.008 | 9 | -0.011 | 19 | 10 |
| Rush SR | 41.4% | 17 | 42.6% | 18 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | 1.5% | 12 | -6.6% | 15 | 3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.80 | 8 | 4.56 | 20 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 5.4 | 10 | -9 |
| Points per Game | 19.8 | 22 | 20.5 | 13 | -9 |
Bengals Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.061 | 8 | -0.006 | 13 | 5 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 10 | 42.1% | 8 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | 0.7% | 17 | 2.7% | 18 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.084 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 49.5% | 8 | 44.9% | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.8% | 14 | 14.8% | 27 | 13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 28 | 4.7% | 31 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.143 | 27 | -0.137 | 4 | -23 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 23 | 37.9% | 8 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -9.7% | 22 | -12.1% | 7 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 17 | 4.31 | 12 | -5 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 15 | 5.4 | 10 | -5 |
| Points per Game | 23.3 | 12 | 23.3 | 21 | 9 |
Panthers at Bengals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: P.J. Walker
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.9 | 42 |
Career: P.J. Walker
- AY/A: 5.1
- QB Elo per Game: -45.8
2022: Joe Burrow
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.129 | 5 |
| AY/A | 7.9 | 7 |
| QBR | 53.5 | 15 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.5 | 5 |
Career: Joe Burrow
- AY/A: 8.0
- QB Elo per Game: 33.4
Key Matchup: Bengals Pass Offense vs. Panthers Pass Defense
Even with their rebuilt offensive line, the Bengals have been poor running the ball this year, and the Panthers have a top-10 rush defense, so it would be unwise for the Bengals to lean heavily into the ground game.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.143 | 27 | -0.137 | 4 | -23 |
| Rush SR | 0.393 | 23 | 0.379 | 8 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.097 | 22 | -0.121 | 7 | -15 |
They’re without No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip), but even so they should still opt to attack the Panthers via the air. For the season, the Bengals have been a solidly above-average team in the passing game, where the Panthers defense has been been subpar.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.084 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 0.495 | 8 | 0.449 | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.138 | 14 | 0.148 | 27 | 13 |
The Bengals won’t be as explosive without Chase, but they still have a strong quartet of pass catchers with WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, TE Hayden Hurst and RB Joe Mixon.
And the Panthers are dealing with injuries in their secondary: CB Donte Jackson (ankle) and S Justin Burris (concussion) both exited Week 8 early, CB Jaycee Horn (ankle, ribs) has been playing through various injuries for weeks, and S Jeremy Chinn (hamstring, IR) is out.
This line was -9.5 last week in the lookahead market, and the early line on Sunday night — before the Bengals played on Monday Night Football — was -8.5.
At -7.5, this line is too low.
Best Line: Bengals -7.5 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Bengals -9.5 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Bengals -9.25
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Seahawks at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Seahawks at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cardinals -2
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Seahawks +110
Seahawks at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.
- Spread: Seahawks – 81% bets, 89% money
- Over/Under: Over – 57% bets, 88% money
- Moneyline: Seahawks – 28% bets, 36% money
Seahawks at Cardinals: Injuries
Seahawks: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Marquise Goodwin | WR | Groin | DNP |
| Darrell Taylor | OLB | Groin | DNP |
| Gabe Jackson | G | Hip/knee | LP |
| Penny Hart | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | Hamstring/Ribs | LP |
| DK Metcalf | WR | Knee | LP |
| Austin Blythe | C | Knee | LP |
| Jordyn Brooks | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Ryan Neal | S | Ankle | LP |
| Noah Fant | TE | Hamstring | LP |
Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jamal Adams | SS | IR |
| Isaiah Dunn | CB | IR |
| Darryl Johnson | LB | IR |
| Tyler Ott | LS | IR |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | IR |
| Alton Robinson | LB | IR |
| Tyreke Smith | LB | IR |
| Cody Thompson | WR | IR |
| Tre Brown | CB | PUP |
| Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | PUP |
| Jon Rhattigan | LB | PUP |
Cardinals: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Budda Baker | S | Ankle | DNP |
| Max Garcia | G | Shoulder | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Humphries | OT | Back | DNP |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | DE | Ribs | DNP |
| Christian Matthew | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | LP |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Byron Murphy | CB | Back | LP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | LP |
| Cameron Thomas | LB | Back | LP |
| Josh Jones | OT | Knee | FP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Marquise Brown | WR | IR |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Rashard Lawrence | DT | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Justin Pugh | OL | IR |
| Nick Vigil | ILB | IR |
| Jonathan Ward | RB | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR |
| Darrel Williams | RB | IR |
Seahawks at Cardinals: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Seahawks ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 5-3 (18.9% ROI)
- ML: 5-3 (54.2% ROI)
Cardinals ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-17.5% ROI)
- ML: 4-4 (-4.5% ROI)
Seahawks at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Seahawks Trends
- QB Geno Smith: 24-16-2 ATS (15.4% ROI) for career
- QB Geno Smith: 8-3 ATS (39.8% ROI) for team
- QB Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS (20.2% ROI) as underdog
- QB Geno Smith: 6-2 ATS (45.0% ROI) as underdog for team
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-17 ATS (16.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-15 ATS (20.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 11-5 ATS (31.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Seahawks at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Seahawks Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.063 | 7 | 0.029 | 18 | 11 |
| Total SR | 44.9% | 14 | 50.2% | 30 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 12.1% | 7 | 3.9% | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.122 | 8 | 0.117 | 26 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 51.5% | 3 | 54.1% | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 31.0% | 5 | 11.8% | 23 | 18 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.9% | 27 | 5.4% | 27 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.036 | 20 | -0.130 | 5 | -15 |
| Rush SR | 34.1% | 31 | 43.2% | 21 | -10 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.5% | 13 | -9.4% | 11 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.19 | 26 | 4.45 | 15 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 5 | 5.8 | 24 | 19 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 4 | 26.3 | 30 | 26 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.003 | 20 | 0.042 | 21 | 1 |
| Total SR | 43.3% | 22 | 41.5% | 5 | -17 |
| Total DVOA | -11.8% | 26 | -2.6% | 11 | -15 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.004 | 21 | 0.108 | 24 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 44.2% | 25 | 44.5% | 10 | -15 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.6% | 27 | 3.2% | 14 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 13 | 7.9% | 11 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.019 | 14 | -0.055 | 16 | 2 |
| Rush SR | 41.7% | 13 | 37.1% | 6 | -7 |
| Rush DVOA | -10.4% | 23 | -9.5% | 10 | -13 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.05 | 28 | 4.48 | 16 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 29 | 5.7 | 19 | -10 |
| Points per Game | 22.8 | 15 | 24.9 | 25 | 10 |
Seahawks at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.152 | 4 |
| AY/A | 8.2 | 5 |
| QBR | 66.6 | 4 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.1 | 13 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -42.8
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.051 | 21 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 30 |
| QBR | 48.3 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.1 | 9 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 64.7
Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
Going back to last season, when he made three spot starts for the injured Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith has a top-four 8.6 AY/A and 0.137 composite EPA + CPOE among all passers with multiple starts.
The world is Smith’s kitchen, and he’s cooking. For the season, the Seahawks are top-eight in most pass efficiency metrics, and the Cardinals defense is bottom-10.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.122 | 8 | 0.117 | 26 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 0.515 | 3 | 0.541 | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.31 | 5 | 0.118 | 23 | 18 |
It helps that he has a top-10 pass-catching unit anchored by WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who have a massive edge over an outmatched secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SEA | ARI | 27 | 17 |
In Week 1, Smith was the No. 32 quarterback in our power rankings. Now, he’s No. 12 — not far behind Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (No. 9).
Given how well Smith has played this year — and how bad the Cardinals secondary has been — it’s hard to see why the Seahawks are underdogs, especially against a divisional opponent they beat 19-9 in Week 6.
This number was +3.5 in the lookahead market, but I still like it at +2.
Best Line: Seahawks +2 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Seahawks +1
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Check out our Ravens at Saints matchup page.
- Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome
- TV: ESPN
Ravens at Saints: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Ravens -2.5
- Over/Under: 48
- Moneyline: Ravens -148, Saints +130
Ravens at Saints: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 2.
- Spread: Saints – 53% bets, 53% money
- Over/Under: Under – 76% bets, 96% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 24% bets, 47% money
Ravens at Saints: Injuries
Ravens: Week 8 Injury Report
Since this is a Monday game, the first injury report for it won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.
Here are the Ravens I’m planning to monitor most closely this week.
- TE Mark Andrews (shoulder): Exited Week 8 early
- WR Rashod Bateman (foot): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks
- RB Gus Edwards (hamstring): Exited Week 8 early, uncertain to play
- DL Calais Campbell (illness): Missed Week 8
- LB Josh Bynes (quad): Missed Week 8
- G Ben Cleveland (foot): Missed Weeks 5-8
- EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles): Activated from IR
- EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles): Activated from IR
Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Vince Biegel | OLB | IR |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | IR |
| Kyle Fuller | CB | IR |
| Daelin Hayes | OLB | IR |
| Ja’Wuan James | T | IR |
| Charlie Kolar | TE | IR |
| Steven Means | OLB | IR |
| Michael Pierce | NT | IR |
| Josh Ross | ILB | IR |
| Marcus Williams | S | IR |
Saints: Week 8 Injury Report
Again, the first injury report won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.
Here are the Saints I’m planning to monitor most closely.
- WR Michael Thomas (foot): Missed Weeks 4-8
- WR Jarvis Landry (ankle): Missed Weeks 5-8
- CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen): Missed Weeks 6-8
- TE Adam Trautman (ankle): Missed Weeks 7-8
- RB Mark Ingram (knee): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Bradley Roby | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Ravens at Saints: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Ravens ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 4-4 (-4.9% ROI)
- ML: 5-3 (1.4% ROI)
Saints ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-28.2% ROI)
- ML: 3-5 (-38.9% ROI)
Ravens at Saints: Notable Trends
- QB Andy Dalton: 42-31-2 ATS (13.1% ROI) as underdog
- QB Andy Dalton: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI) with Saints
Ravens at Saints: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ravens Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.077 | 5 | -0.012 | 11 | 6 |
| Total SR | 47.0% | 8 | 42.3% | 9 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 17.5% | 2 | -2.4% | 12 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.072 | 13 | 0.083 | 19 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 48.1% | 12 | 45.8% | 18 | 6 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.6% | 4 | 2.2% | 11 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.3% | 19 | 7.1% | 19 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.084 | 2 | -0.162 | 1 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 45.5% | 6 | 36.6% | 5 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.7% | 3 | -8.8% | 12 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.31 | 21 | 4.53 | 18 | -3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 7 | 5.3 | 9 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 26 | 5 | 25 | 28 | 23 |
Saints Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.023 | 15 | 0.076 | 28 | 13 |
| Total SR | 49.0% | 3 | 47.0% | 27 | 24 |
| Total DVOA | -1.7% | 19 | 2.1% | 17 | -2 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.04 | 17 | 0.109 | 25 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 50.2% | 5 | 48.4% | 25 | 20 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.9% | 23 | 2.3% | 12 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.1% | 10 | 7.8% | 12 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.003 | 8 | 0.001 | 24 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 47.2% | 3 | 43.8% | 22 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | 10.8% | 6 | 1.9% | 25 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.97 | 4 | 4.72 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 5 | 5.7 | 19 | 14 |
| Points per Game | 24.9 | 8 | 22.9 | 20 | 12 |
Ravens at Saints: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Lamar Jackson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.102 | 11 |
| AY/A | 7.1 | 13 |
| QBR | 63.7 | 5 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.4 | 6 |
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 80.4
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.116 | 8 |
| AY/A | 7.3 | 11 |
| QBR | 55.1 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 24 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -5.8
Key Matchup: Saints Rush Offense vs. Ravens Rush Defense
For the Saints, No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot) has been out since Week 4. No. 2 WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) has been out since Week 5. No. 1 TE Adam Trautman (ankle), since early in Week 6.
Even so, the Saints have managed 29.6 points over the past five games with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton.
How?
The running game.
The Saints have one of the league’s best rush attacks, and the Ravens are outside the top 20 in run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.003 | 8 | 0.001 | 24 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 0.472 | 3 | 0.438 | 22 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.108 | 6 | 0.019 | 25 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.97 | 4 | 4.72 | 21 | 17 |
They have especially struggled since losing run-stuffing NT Michael Pierce (biceps, IR), who exited Week 3 with an injury after just 11 snaps.
- Weeks 1-2: 36.1% rush SR (No. 10) | -10.3% rush DVOA (No. 17)
- Weeks 3-8: 46.0% rush SR (No. 28) | 5.0% rush DVOA (No. 27)
Even with the Monday addition of LB Roquan Smith (acquired from Bears via trade), the Ravens will likely still struggle against the run.
In the offseason, this number was Saints +0.5, and that’s close to where I think this line should be.
Best Line: Saints +3 (-120, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Saints -0.25
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Freedman’s Week 9 ATS Bets to Consider
In addition to the three bets above, these other bets have my eye.
- Bears +5 vs. Dolphins
- Lions +3.5 vs. Packers
- Titans +12.5 at Chiefs
Bears +5: I bet this at +3.5 in the lookahead market (ugh). I like this line per my power ratings and projected spread — but I don’t actually like how the Bears match up against the Dolphins.
Lions +3.5: I bet this at +3.5 in the lookahead market. I have this projected at +2, so I see strong theoretical value in this line above the key number of +3, but I’m currently worried about the status of RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), given that the main edge the Lions have is their run offense vs. the Packers run defense.
Titans +12.5: I haven’t bet this yet, although I’m tempted. I expect QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) to play after he practiced limitedly on Wednesday, and HC Mike Vrabel is 20-12 ATS as an underdog (7-2 ATS as an underdog of six-plus points).
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers
- Seahawks +2.5 at Cardinals
- Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Rams
- Titans +12.5 at Chiefs
- Saints +2.5 vs. Ravens
Also in consideration are:
- Eagles -13.5 at Texans
- Bears +5 vs. Dolphins
- Lions +3.5 vs. Packers
In the DraftKings contest, every participant must take one “skip week†in which no selections are made. With six teams on bye and three nastily large double-digit spreads, this might be the week I skip. I’m still deliberating.
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (SUN. 11/6): Here’s the update.
Here’s the thing: Week 9 will be my skip week — but if I were to be in the contest this week these are the five plays I’d make. Let’s hope I don’t go a theoretical 5-0. That would be painful.
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