There are three games tonight, and there is little doubt that the battle between the Phoenix Mercury and the New York Liberty is the best on the schedule. Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury have won both meetings between the two teams this season, but can Breanna Stewart change the narrative with tonight's game being played in New York? Meanwhile, in the last game of the night, the Golden State Valkyries host the Dallas Wings. Can Arike Ogunbowale stay hot from beyond the arc in that game? Here are the best WNBA player props and bets for Friday, July 25’s game Mercury vs. Liberty.
Friday's Best WNBA Player Props & Bets: Mercury vs. Liberty
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 Points (-108)
Stewart is averaging 19.5 points per game, but July hasn't been her best month. She's scored 18 or fewer points in all but one of her games, and if you go back to June 22, she has scored 18 or fewer in seven of her last 10. Yet, I'm still backing her Over tonight.
The first time Stewart faced the Mercury, she exploded for 35 points. She went 11-of-17 from the field in that game, and she managed to get to the free throw line 11 times. While Stewart struggled a bit in her second game against Phoenix, she still put up 17 points on the road in just 31 minutes. The Liberty were blown out in that game, which definitely impacted her playing time.
Stewart is averaging nearly 33 minutes per game. That's only two minutes longer than her playing time in her last game against the Mercury, but when three points are all that were separating Stewart from hitting this Over, those two minutes are huge. Plus, in that second contest, Stewart once again shot over 50% against the Mercury. This game is being played in New York, just like the contest where Stewart scored 35. On her home court, look for her to get into the 20s for the second time in three games.
Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 Rebounds (-108)
Maybe oddsmakers are laying a trap, but for this price, there is no way I'm not taking Thomas to pull down at least eight rebounds against the Liberty for the third time this season. Thomas is averaging exactly 7.5 rebounds per game, so oddsmakers aren't doing us any favors when it comes to this line. However, when you look at how she has performed against the Liberty, this total is a bit surprising.
The last time Thomas faced the Liberty, she pulled down nine rebounds. It was a solid performance, but nothing compared to what she did in the first game against New York. In that first contest, she pulled down a season-high 15 boards in just 27 minutes. Considering her success against the Liberty and this price, this is a must-play.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.