According to the latest MLB futures bets odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (-1600), Aaron Judge has a 94.12% chance of winning the American League MVP Award, while Shohei Ohtani has a 93.55% chance of winning the National League MVP Award (-1450). However, with how they and other players are performing, the race may not be done yet.
Not that Judge and Ohtani are not having solid seasons, but there are other players that one could argue are playing better.
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MLB Futures Bets: MVP Award Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
American League MVP Race Odds
The top five players on FanDuel Sportbook’s American League MVP odds board are:
- Aaron Judge (-1600)
- Cal Raleigh (+700)
- Tarik Skubal (+9000)
- Riley Greene (+12000)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+12000)
It is not hard to understand why Aaron Judge is getting as much attention as he is. For one, he won last year. Recent winners often get some grace from voters and bettors in the following season, like the award is theirs to lose until someone else emerges or they tank/get injured.
Judge has certainly not tanked this season. The slugger's batting average hovered around .400 through May before it dropped down to where it is now (.360). Whenever you talk about Judge, you have to mention his home run stats (33). They are a big part of the reason why he was named the MVP last season.
If home runs are a key factor, though, Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh deserves to be at the forefront of MVP conversations. His batting average (.268) and OPS (1.021) are not as high as Judge's (.360, 1.202), but he leads the league in home runs with 35. Both have 74 RBI. Raleigh has more stolen bases (nine versus six), fewer strikeouts (97 to 101) and fewer walks (56 to 65). Judge does have 32 additional hits in just six more at-bats than Raleigh, however.
National League MVP Race Odds
The top five players on FanDuel Sportsbook's National League MVP odds board are:
- Shohei Ohtani (-1450)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (+1600)
- Juan Soto (+1800)
- Kyle Tucker (+4200)
- James Wood (+5000)
I get it with Shohei Ohtani; he’s the easiest guy to make a case for because there’s a stat for everything he does. Most of the season, he has just been a hitter, and he's produced at an MVP level with 30 home runs, a .609 slugging rate, a .991 OPS and 87 runs scored. Now that he's pitching again, it becomes even easier to make a case for him. In four starts, he's posted a 1.50 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, but he's only gone six total innings.
The Dodgers have gone 2-2 in those games, losing the ones where he pitched two innings.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is not hitting as well as Ohtani, but he does have 23 home runs, has generated more RBI (67 to 56), is striking out a lot less (87 to 104) and stealing more bases (27 to 12). He’s also a potential Golden Glove defender. Crow-Armstrong has the second highest WAR in the National League (5.2), while Ohtani is tied for 11th (4.1).
MVP Predictions
There is no value in betting on either Judge or Ohtani right now. You'd have to risk over $1,000 just to have a chance to win $100. The only way betting on either right now makes sense is if you're getting divorced and would rather the sportsbook take your money than your spouse.
It is absolutely worth taking a flier on Raleigh. He needs to improve in a few categories to overtake Judge on betting boards, but the odds are more reflective of how much people are betting on a player than how well/poorly they are playing. Tarik Skubal is having a solid season, but Judge and Raleigh are playing too well for a pitcher to overtake them.
As for the National League race, I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but I don't think Ohtani deserves to be the MVP. Yes, he’s fantastic and having a great season, but he’s also benefiting from being part of a roster stacked with talent. Crow-Armstrong has talent around him, but not nearly as much as Ohtani. While Ohtani has an edge at the plate, Crow-Armstrong’s defense is far and away more valuable than Ohtani's contributions on the mound.
At +1600, well, I'm going to go put a few bucks down on the Cubs outfielder after I turn this article in. The last time I talked about the National League MVP Award, I called James Woods my dark horse at +10000; now he's at +5000. He still has some work to do to become the favorite, but he's in the conversation and potentially worth skipping your morning latte for a couple of days.
