A whopping 24 teams are averaging at least one home run per game with the 2024 MLB playoff race in full swing. It's a statistic that has provided sports bettors with opportunities to cash an MLB home run prop bet day after day. Here's a look at four sluggers worth backing to crush a ball beyond the fence on Monday, August 19.
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Monday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cal Raleigh (+360)
Los Angeles’ Gavin Stone is still figuring out what it takes to be an elite pitcher at the Major League level. The second-year Dodger’s latest challenge has been limiting the long ball. Stone has been tagged for at least one home run in each of his last seven starts. It’s been a problem that spans beyond just him, too. The Dodgers have given up 23 dingers over the past 15 days, the most among National League squads.
Those stats put catcher Cal Raleigh in a good spot to go yard on Monday night. Raleigh has been a monster away from T-Mobile Park. The Seattle standout checks in third among all hitters in both homers (20) and RBI (47) on the road this season. Keep in mind he also ranks 35th in pitches seen per at-bat (4.07). Grinding out a plate appearance in order to demolish the right pitch is something he has done time and time again.
Corey Seager (+285)
Pittsburgh’s Luis Ortiz finds himself having the same problem as Stone. The 25-year-old has allowed seven home runs across his previous four starts and they have been moon shots more often than not. The average homer launched against Ortiz goes 414 feet. That is the fourth-highest distance among pitchers with at least one start this campaign. Opposing batters are taking advantage of every mistake pitch he tosses.
The Rangers erased a four-run deficit for a victory on Sunday and All-Star Corey Seager was smack dab in the middle of the comeback. He notched an RBI double and is now slugging a team-high .629 in August (15 games). Take note that 20 of Seager’s 26 blasts have been hit versus right-handed pitching. Monday provides a clear opportunity for the Texas shortstop to provide a spark in the best way he knows how.
Tyler O’Neill (+370) and Rob Refsnyder (+650)
These picks are right on theme with the ones above. Houston’s Yusei Kikuchi hasn’t fared well in terms of curbing hard contact. The veteran left-hander has surrendered at least one home run in 13 of his last 18 starts and grades outside the top 325 pitchers in average exit velocity (90.6 mph). Within that span was a start against the Red Sox where Kikuchi was whacked around to the tune of four homers.
Tyler O’Neill was responsible for two of those jacks as he was jumping on whatever Kikuchi threw at him. The Boston outfielder has tormented southpaws throughout 2024, posting a ridiculous 1.075 OPS over 125 plate appearances. Utility player Rob Refsnyder is an underrated name to target here, too. The former Arizona Wildcat has recorded a .963 OPS and tallied 19 of his 24 extra-base knocks this year in away contests.
