It’s been a lousy weekend for home run props. But all that can change with one swing of the bat today. Here are three MLB home run props to consider for today’s 15-game slate.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matt Olson (+360)
Robert Gasser is scheduled to start today for the Milwaukee Brewers. The lefty has allowed his last 31 lefties to hit a .360 ISO and a wOBA of .414. He’s also fallen behind in counts a lot against lefties, while also allowing 47.4% of fly balls to lefties.
Gasser will match up against Matt Olson, who has hit a .289 ISO and a wOBA of .416 over the last month against lefties. Olson has added 60.5% of hard contact with a 13.2% barrel rate against lefties. He’s also added 28.9% of fly balls.
Let’s look for some lefty-on-lefty mojo. Take Olson to go yard today.
Luis Garcia (+680)
The Tampa Bay Rays are set to pitch Nick Martinez tonight. The righty has allowed a .186 ISO and a wOBA of .337 to his last 61 lefties. In addition, he’s given up 38% of fly balls with 40% of hard contact against lefties over the last month.
Luis Garcia has one home run over the last five games. He’s also hit a .303 ISO and a wOBA of .356 with 12.8% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. Garcia has also added a 45.5% hard-hit rate with a 10.6% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days.
At +680 odds, there’s plenty of value with Garcia. He’s not James Wood or CJ Abrams, but he’s in the lineup tonight against Nick Martinez.
Bryan Reynolds (+370)
Over the last month, Bryan Reynolds has a .209 ISO and a wOBA of .402 against righties. The switch-hitter bats left-handed against righties and will face Michael Lorenzen of the Rockies tonight.
The righty Lorenzen has allowed a .317 ISO and a wOBA of .487 to his last 46 lefties. Those lefties have hit 39.4% of fly balls with 27.3% of line drive contact. Plus, this game is being played in Coors Field, which never hurts.
Reynolds has hit 28.8% of fly balls against righties over the last month and has added a 13.5% barrel rate. Let’s give Reynolds a chance at +370. He’s hit two homers over the last five games.
