It's slim pickings for sports bettors on Thursday with just six MLB games on the schedule. However, there's still value to be had from an MLB home run props betting perspective.
Several dependable sluggers and advantageous matchups can be found on the slate. Here's a look at four players worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence on Thursday, September 4th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jo Adell (+370)
Targeting a hot bat is a smart move to make on Thursday. Jo Adell is 7-for-12 with three home runs and one double since the calendar turned to September. The 26-year-old outfielder has proven to be a dangerous threat to go yard as he leads the Angels with 33 homers and an excellent 17.3% barrel rate in 2025. Keep in mind Adell has also logged a .951 OPS against left-handed pitching. That is the 10th-highest mark in the league.
Kansas City’s Noah Cameron has his work cut out for him at Kauffman Stadium. It’s never easy to pitch in that venue, as it ranks sixth in Statcast’s offensive park factors since the beginning of the 2023 season. The young southpaw has surrendered four dingers across his last three starts and is yielding a .280/.423/.512 slash line when the batter is ahead in the count. Expect Adell to stay patient before crushing a ball into the crowd.
Byron Buxton (Odds TBD)
Jo Adell isn’t the only pro smashing the cover off the baseball as of late. Minnesota’s Byron Buxton has slashed an impressive .333/.370/.875 with seven extra-base knocks during his past six games. The two-time All-Star has already set a career-high mark in home runs (29) with 23 contests left to go. It’s not difficult to understand why, either. Buxton is a top-10 slugger in hard-hit rate (54.8%) and barrel rate (18.0%).
Up next for Buxton is a showdown with Shane Smith of the White Sox on Thursday. The rookie right-hander has allowed at least one homer in eight of his previous 11 starts. Sitting below the MLB average in chase rate (24.2%) and well above the MLB average in hard-hit rate (47.2%) continues to hinder Smith on the mound. Opponents are shaking off his trickery, while also torching his mistakes. Trust Buxton to cash in on the trend.
Mike Yastrzemski (+400) & Adam Frazier (+1000)
Let’s return to Kansas City for these final picks. Kyle Hendricks will toe the slab for the Angels on Thursday night. The veteran hurler has struggled on the road, posting a 5.05 ERA and conceding 10 home runs in 12 outings. Take note that Hendricks has given up a blast to every spot in the batting order and in every inning besides the ninth this campaign. He remains susceptible to the long ball at any moment in the game.
Focusing on two trade deadline acquisitions is the way to go here. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has tallied four homers in 14 home clashes as a Royal and is slugging a ridiculous .692 versus change-ups on the year. That is the pitch Hendricks tosses most at 38.4%. Meanwhile, utility man Adam Frazier is 14-for-34 with two jacks facing Hendricks and boasts a top-10 launch angle sweet-spot rate (41.1%).
