It felt good to hit on two of my three home run picks last week. But it was also a lot more painful on some level than hitting one, or even none. In my first home run bet article of the season, I explained how I usually size my home run bets. To clarify, I split my total betting amount by first placing individual bets on each of my three home run picks. I risk enough on each player so that I am profitable as long as one of them hits. Then, with the remainder of my allotted amount, I place a three-leg parlay on those same picks, rather than using a Round Robin approach. My aim is to maximize the return if all three players hit home runs. Go big or go home, right?
When you're sitting in the clubhouse with those two green checkmarks on your ticket, things get real. Last week, I was one swing away from turning 0.3 units into roughly 69 units. (This is also why I always use the 50 percent Dinger Tuesday boost on FanDuel for the parlay rather than the individual legs.) To be completely transparent, I could have cashed out for about seven units at one point. But what fun would that be? So, with bated breath and clenched teeth, I watched Zach Neto fail to hit a ball out of the infield. It always feels like it's the guy with the shortest odds who sells. Oh well. Que Será, Será. At least it was nice to have a sweat.
The parlay payout won’t be nearly as great this week, but I am back with my three favorite home run picks for Tuesday's MLB slate. As always, make sure you use multiple sportsbooks if possible to shop for the best prices. Prices on home run bets tend to shift quite a bit on various books throughout the day. Some books haven't even posted prices yet as I write this, so you may be able to find better prices than I have listed below.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(All bets 0.5 units unless otherwise stated)
Sal Stewart (+357 at DraftKings)
Cincinnati Reds rookie Sal Stewart is tied for sixth in MLB with nine home runs entering Tuesday's action. He is tied for third with 18 total barrels and second overall in barrels per plate appearance. Stewart is in a favorable position to improve upon those numbers on Tuesday when Cincinnati hosts the Colorado Rockies.
I also think we are getting a slight break on this price based on Colorado's starting pitcher situation. The consensus opinion heading into Monday was that Tomoyuki Sugano would get the start. However, there has been a growing belief that the team will activate Kyle Freeland and let him start Tuesday. Sugano is no ace, but I believe Freeland may be slightly more susceptible to serving up a home run to Stewart.
Despite the reputation of Coors Field as a home run haven, Freeland has been far more apt to allow homers away from Colorado. Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Freeland has given up 17 longballs at home and 28 on the road. 27 of those 28 homers have come from the bats of right-handed hitters. Stewart has only 180 Major League plate appearances, so sample sizes are small. Still, he is slugging .769 versus lefties compared to .545 against righties.
I am betting on Stewart, regardless of which pitcher starts the game for Colorado on Tuesday. However, it does feel like his price is more reflective of Sugano starting than Freeland, and I will gladly take that discount.
Juan Soto (+300 at TheScoreBet)
On Tuesday, the resistible force will meet the movable object when the New York Mets host Zack Littell. I must admit that betting on a player from a team that has scored four or more runs just three times since April 7 is a tough sell. However, you can argue that Juan Soto’s playing in only five games is a major reason for New York's offensive issues. Either way, I am backing Soto against the gas can that is Littell.
Last season, Littell allowed 36 home runs. That was the second-highest number in the Major Leagues. So far this season, he has been unequivocally worse in nearly every area, including serving up homers. Littell has already allowed 11 home runs in just 25 innings pitched. He has given up nine home runs to left-handed batters while only striking out five of them.
Given Littell's struggles, it is tempting to bet on one of the Mets' players with better odds. There is certainly a chance that Littell pitches around Soto, considering how cold New York's offense has been. Still, Littell cannot afford to get cute, so I am trusting him to give Soto something to hit.
Citi Field is not the best park to hit home runs in by any means. However, Soto hit 21 homers there last year, including 15 versus right-handed pitching. While he only has one home run in 13 games this season, Soto's recent trips to the plate have been encouraging. He has eight hard-hit balls and three barrels in five games since returning from the Injured List. I like him to get the job done on Tuesday.
Brice Turang (+379 at DraftKings)
Last week, one of my winning home run bets was on Munetaka Murakami. While I don't blame anyone who wants to go that route, I am not in love with his matchup. Instead, I am going to focus on the pitcher Murakami homered against last Tuesday. That would be Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who faces the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday.
Kelly has made only two starts this season, but the results have been disastrous. The 37-year-old has given up 10 earned runs and four home runs in just 9.2 innings. Left-handed hitters have accounted for three of the homers against Kelly thus far. That is a continuation of last year's numbers. Kelly allowed 17 home runs to lefties last year versus just six against righties.
We may not necessarily think of Brice Turang as a power bat, but he has been just that against right-handed pitching this season. Among 164 hitters with at least 70 plate appearances versus righties, Turang ranks 14th in ISO and 15th in slugging percentage. Arizona has no left-handed relievers, so all of Turang's plate appearances on Tuesday will come against right-handers. Turang has already homered versus Kelly in seven career plate appearances and is 3-for-5 lifetime with a double against Diamondback relievers he could face in this game. As I referenced last week, Arizona's relievers have given up the fifth-most home runs per nine innings, as well as the eighth-highest barrel rate this year.
Jake Bauers is another candidate who I believe profiles similarly to Turang. He ranks just below Turang, placing 17th in slugging percentage and 18th in ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season. He is also more of a free swinger than Turang, which could work to his benefit. However, Bauers is 0-for-5 against Kelly and just 1-for-13 versus Arizona relievers in his career. Because of that, I give Turang the slightest of edges. However, I am not opposed to double-dipping if the mood strikes you.
