Game 2 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) takes place in Tampa on Tuesday. The Rays hope to even the series with the Cleveland Guardians. Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Tampa, while Parker Messick will take the mound for the Guardians. Let's dig through the data to come up with some MLB home run props for this game, shall we?
With only one game on the slate, I recommend going a bit lighter on these than we did in the regular season. But I think multiple players have favorable matchups in this game. Here are my favorite home run bets for Tuesday's ALCS Game 2 between Tampa Bay and Cleveland.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Travis Bazzana (+840 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Travis Bazzana has yet to go deep this postseason. But the former No. 1 overall draft pick hit 15 long balls in 124 games during his rookie campaign. Bazzana has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, with 13 of his 15 homers coming versus righties. That should bode well in a matchup against Rays starter Freddy Peralta.
Peralta is much more apt to allow home runs to left-handed hitters. He allowed 17 home runs to left-handed hitters this season, compared to just six versus right-handers. Peralta's mix of pitches could also play into Bazzana's strengths.
Peralta throws a four-seam fastball, change-up and curveball to left-handed batters. He throws his four-seamer and change-up nearly 80% of the time against lefties. Bazzana is hitting .299 and slugging .571 on those pitches against righties this season. He has nine home runs and 15 near-home runs in just 175 plate appearances on those two pitches against righties.
Given that data, I am happy to take this home run prop at +840. I would play this down to +700.
Ryan Vilade (+800 at theScore Bet)
Ryan Vilade should get the start for Tampa Bay on Tuesday, as was the case on Monday. He will likely hit in the middle of the order versus Parker Messick, whom he is 3-for-7 against in their previous head-to-head matchups. That success is no surprise, given Vilade's output against Messick's pitch arsenal.
Messick throws either a four-seam fastball or change-up roughly three-quarters of the time when facing right-handed hitters. Vilade is slugging .593 with six home runs and nine near-homers in just 97 plate appearances against those pitches versus southpaws.
Vilade also has favorable home splits in the power department. He has five home runs at Tropicana Field against lefties in just 89 plate appearances. Tampa's home park is surprisingly friendly to right-handers when it comes to hitting home runs. Only Sutter Health Park in Sacramento had a higher park factor this season for right-handed power than Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay could pinch-hit for Vilade later in the game, but I like the matchup with Messick and the price enough to sprinkle on this.
Angel Martinez (+820 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is more of a wild card pick because Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt may opt to keep Angel Martinez on the bench to start Game 2. However, if Martinez gets the start, I like his matchup against Freddy Peralta.
Martinez has also been successful against Peralta's top three pitches. However, unlike Travis Bazzana, Martinez has done much more damage against Peralta's secondary offerings, including his change-up and curveball. Martinez has a .510 slugging rate and .294 ISO against those two pitches versus right-handers. Cleveland's utility man has four home runs and six near-homers in just 52 plate appearances in that split.
FanDuel Sportsbook's house rules state that a player must start for a home run bet to register. Because of that, the risk is even lower than this price suggests. If Martinez is on the bench, you get your money back. If he plays, you're getting a decent enough matchup at +820. This feels like a good place to speculate, so I am taking Martinez to hit a home run on Tuesday.
