We’ve nailed a home run prop in each of my last two home run articles. Let’s see if we can extend the streak to three straight wins. Here are my top MLB home run props to consider for tonight’s full slate of games.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bryan Reynolds (+560)
In the last month, Bryan Reynolds has slugged a .500 ISO and a wOBA of .580 against his last 30 lefties. The switch-hitter bats from the right side against lefties and will face Andrew Abbott tonight.
The lefty Abbott has allowed a .186 ISO and a wOBA of .341 to his last 82 righties. Those righties have struck out just 15.9% of the time, and Abbott has continually fallen behind in counts against righties over the last 30 days. He’s even allowed over 28% of fly balls to righties in the last 30 days. Beyond that, Abbott has given up over 50% of hard contact to righties in that same time frame.
Reynolds is red hot against lefties. Let’s back him tonight to go deep.
Jac Caglianone (+400)
The White Sox have David Sandlin penciled in as the starter tonight. The righty has struggled against lefties all season long. Over the last 30 days, he’s allowed a .323 ISO and a wOBA of .448 to his last 36 lefties.
Those lefties have an 18.2% barrel rate with over 36% of fly balls. He’s also walked nearly 14% of lefties over the last 30 days, proving he’s falling behind in his performance against lefties.
Meanwhile, Jac Caglianone is a lefty hitting a .283 ISO and a wOBA of .415 against righties over the last month. He’s also added 89.5% of hard contact and a 21.1% barrel rate against righties over the last month. That leads the team.
Take a chance on Caglianone at +400 odds.
Kody Clemens (+320)
Kody Clemens has knocked a .360 ISO and a wOBA of .403 with just 17.5% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. Clemens has hit 31.1% of fly balls and 55.7% of hard contact against righties in the last month. He’s also added a 14.8% barrel rate, which leads the team over the last 30 days against righties.
Clemens battles Tomoyuki Sugano of the Colorado Rockies tonight. Ultimately, Sugano has given up a .316 ISO and a wOBA of .408 to his last 62 lefties. He’s been well below-average against lefties throughout the season and has allowed 37.5% of fly balls to lefties over the last month. Sugano has allowed more fly balls than ground balls induced over the last 30 days.
That plays out well for Clemens, who has shown a ton of power against righties this season.
