I hit one out of three on my MLB Home Run picks for the second consecutive week last week. The good news is that hitting one out of every three home runs, props will certainly keep the lights on. The bad news is that it won't pay my 2025 tax bill. So, I am back with three more Tuesday home run props I am playing.
Hopefully, Monday's offensive barrage, coinciding with some warmer weather, is a good sign of things to come. Nine different players hit multiple home runs on Monday. We only need three players to go deep once each.
As always, I advise shopping around for the best price on each individual player. These lines can shift depending on the sportsbook. For example, when the first home run prop listed below was posted, the price was over +500. While I was writing this article, it dropped below that threshold. I still like it at the current price, so I kept it. Still, it is best to act quickly before sportsbooks adjust prices.
Adjust your bets as needed. I'm using FanDuel's 50% Dinger Tuesday boost on the three-leg parlay. Here are my three favorite home run picks for April 14th.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Home Run Props
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated)
Matt Chapman (+490 at FanDuel)
Batter v. Pitcher data is not the end-all, be-all when it comes to projecting future results. Players change teams, pitchers alter their pitch mixes, hitters adjust their swing paths, etc. Having said that, I think it is safe to say Matt Chapman sees the ball well from Brady Singer.
Chapman is 7-for-10 lifetime against Cincinnati's right-hander. Five of the seven hits have gone for extra bases, including a pair of home runs. One of the doubles Chapman hit against Singer was a 105.2 MPH liner that short-hopped the left field wall. Another was a 112.8 MPH rocket that traveled 413 feet and would have been a home run in most MLB parks. That brings us to Tuesday's matchup in Great American Ballpark.
GABP has the second-highest home run factor for right-handed hitters using a three-year rolling average from 2023 to 2025. During that same period, Chapman hit 65 home runs. Baseball Savant's Expected Home Runs by Park metric shows Chapman would have hit 93 home runs if all his at-bats during those years had taken place at Great American Ballpark. This projects to over 60 home runs per 162 games. These numbers are comparable to Ohtani and Judge, but Chapman is being priced based on his baseline averages. Even though the books dropped this price overnight, I believe we are still getting a good deal.
Oneil Cruz (+350 at BetMGM)
I must admit that picking Oneil Cruz here is a bit like picking a name out of a hat. The Pittsburgh Pirates are facing Miles Mikolas on Tuesday. Mikolas is more successful and has already made way more money than I will ever see in my lifetime. Still, he is no longer even an average Major League pitcher. Mikolas has allowed 29 baserunners and 19 runs in 12.1 innings pitched in 2026. He has surrendered five home runs across three starts. There are several ways you can go here if you want to fade Mikolas.
Brandon Lowe has three homers in two days and leads the team with six home runs. Ryan O'Hearn has excellent odds considering his 181 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching so far this season. Perhaps Tuesday is the day Konnor Griffin hits his first Big League home run. I am not opposed to playing multiple Pirates to homer if the spirit moves you. However, I still think Oneil Cruz has the best chance among all Pirates to go yard in this game.
Cruz enters Tuesday's action with a .598 expected slugging percentage. That is the 14th-highest among 279 qualified hitters. PNC Park is a tough park to homer in. But left-handed hitters hit three home runs in Monday's game as weather conditions continue to improve. Besides, when Cruz gets a hold of one, it doesn't really matter where he is hitting. All five of his home runs this year have traveled over 400 feet.
Mikolas will need to give Washington some length after their bullpen was taxed in Monday's 16-5 drubbing. Cruz should get three opportunities to take the veteran deep, and I like his chances of doing so.
Jordan Walker (+425 at BetMGM)
Sometimes, you just have to ride the hot hand. And nobody in all of baseball is hotter right now than Jordan Walker.
Walker slugged his Major League-leading eighth home run of the season on Monday. He has now homered in three straight games, and it’s the second separate three-game homer streak he has had this season. Walker's long-awaited emergence is here, and it is glorious.
Walker does not have the easiest matchup on Tuesday against Joey Cantillo, the Guardians’ starting pitcher. Cantillo does a solid job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. However, the same could be said of Gavin Williams, Brayan Bello, and Garrett Whitlock, and Walker has homered off all three of them in the past 72 hours.
Cantillo throws a four-seam fastball or changeup roughly 70 percent of the time against right-handed hitters. Walker is slugging 1.000 and 1.143, respectively, versus those two offerings thus far in 2026. The biggest deterrent here could be Cantillo's propensity for walks. Considering how hot Walker has been, he may not get many pitches to hit. Given these odds, I think it is worth paying to find out.
