Once again, we cashed a home run bet last Tuesday. While that kept me profitable, it still fell short of the goal. I didn't get extra credit for Bryce Harper's second homer or Cody Bellinger hitting the top of the wall. Believe me, I checked. Still, I'm back with my three favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, May 12th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Brandon Lowe (+450 at theScore Bet)
After Brandon Lowe homered twice on Opening Day, my buddy Josh texted me, "So apparently it's Brandon Lowe SZN?!?" I chuckled. I am no longer laughing. Lowe has 10 home runs in 35 games. Most of his damage has come on the road, but I think he can send one into the Pittsburgh night on Tuesday.
The Pirates host the Rockies and Michael Lorenzen. Lowe hit a 431-foot home run off Lorenzen last season, and he also has a double in nine career plate appearances against the Rockies’ right-hander.
Left-handed hitters have tormented Lorenzen in 2026, and not just at Coors Field. In four road starts, Lorenzen has faced 43 lefties and allowed 16 hits, including three home runs.
Lorenzen throws up to seven pitches, making it tricky to gauge his arsenal each start. Yet, Lowe has an .831 slugging ratee this year against righties on Lorenzen's four most-used offerings: Changeup, four-seam fastball, curveball and cutter.
The Rockies have just one left-handed pitcher in their bullpen. Lowe should get three chances at Lorenzen and maybe one more against the bullpen. That gives him a solid chance to go deep in this matchup.
Byron Buxton (+298 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Typically, I do not make a habit of betting hitters to go deep against pitchers of the same handedness. However, there are several reasons why I am doing just that with Byron Buxton on Tuesday.
Buxton has been red-hot at the plate. He has homered in five of nine games in May, registering an incredible 10 barrels. Buxton has also done a lot of damage against right-handed pitchers.
The Twins outfielder has hit a home run in eight of his last 15 starts versus right-handed starters. Overall, this season, 12 of Buxton's 13 home runs have come against righties. Seven of those 12 have come at home in just 59 plate appearances.
We don't usually think of Eury Perez as a pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs. However, he has allowed 1.34 home runs per nine innings over his career. This season, Perez’s rate is 1.52 home runs per nine innings. For context, the 2026 league average is 1.08 home runs per nine innings (including outings by position players).
Furthermore, in each of his three Major League seasons, Perez has allowed a higher slugging rate, a lower strikeout rate and a lower walk rate to right-handed hitters than to lefties.
Perez essentially throws three pitches to opposing right-handed hitters. He throws his four-seam fastball roughly half the time, while adding a slider and sweeper about a quarter of the time each.
Against righties this season, Buxton has homered three times in 35 plate appearances on fastballs and three times in 16 plate appearances on sliders. Buxton has hit one home run in 12 plate appearances when facing sweepers from right-handers. Last year, he hit four in just 41 trips to the plate. Considering all these factors, this feels like a solid home run bet.
Munetaka Murakami (+350 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I mentioned last time I picked Munetaka Murakami in this column (that bet hit, for the record) that the rookie phenom is a three true outcomes hitter. That means a large percentage of his plate appearances end in either a home run, a walk or a strikeout.
Murakami has ended his plate appearances with one of those outcomes 60.7% of the time. For comparison, Luis Arraez’s rate is just 9.1%. Because of Murakami's tendencies, I sometimes avoid betting on him to hit a home run in matchups versus pitchers who strike out or walk a lot of hitters. Tuesday's is not one of those cases.
Kansas City will be sending Stephen Kolek to the mound to start this game. He will be making his second start of the season - Kolek pitches to contact like few other pitchers in baseball. Last year, the right-hander was one of 127 pitchers with at least 100 MLB innings.
Only 12 of the other 126 had a lower combined strikeout-plus-walk rate than Kolek's 23.4% mark. He also placed in the fourth percentile by allowing a 48% hard-hit rate. Murakami leads all Major League hitters with a 63.9% hard-hit rate.
Murakami also profiles well against Kolek's pitch mix. Last year, Kolek mostly threw a four-seam fastball, cutter and change-up to left-handers. Murakami has hit nine home runs in 73 plate appearances against those pitches from right-handers.
Kolek has kept the ball in the yard in his brief career. Still, if Murakami puts the ball in play multiple times against Kolek, I would bet on him hitting a home run.
