Last week was another profitable one on the home run betting front. That makes four out of five winning weeks overall so far this season. But I am not stopping until I sweep the board. And to be honest, I won't stop then either. In any event, here are my top three MLB home run props for Tuesday's slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Bryce Harper (+400 at theScore Bet)
Bryce Harper pounded the ball in his most recent series in Miami. Harper accounted for the lone run in Philadelphia's 1-0 victory on Monday with his seventh home run of the season. He had four extra-base hits, seven hard-hit balls and three barrels in the series. Now, Harper heads home to a much friendlier ballpark and a familiar foe when the Phillies host Luis Severino and the Athletics on Tuesday.
Harper and Severino have squared off nine times in their careers, including the postseason. Harper has homered against him on three occasions. All three home runs have come in just six plate appearances at Citizens Bank Park. That is not a huge surprise given Harper's success there.
Since joining the Phillies in 2019, Harper has hit a home run once every 18.3 plate appearances at home. Against right-handed pitchers at home, his rate improves to one home run every 17.3 plate appearances. According to Statcast, Citizens Bank Park has the highest home run factor for left-handed hitters over a three-year rolling average.
There's always a walk risk with Harper, but these home run odds are too good to pass up. I grabbed him at +400 at the ScoreBet. FanDuel Sportsbook's +370 odds are also favorable. Anything above +300 is a bargain, given the factors above.
Cody Bellinger (+575 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
I don't usually bet on players to hit home runs against pitchers as good as Jacob deGrom, but I see value with Cody Bellinger on Tuesday.
Bellinger has seven extra-base hits and two home runs in his last four games. His batted ball data is strong, with barrels in three straight games and 10 hard-hit balls in five outings. Bellinger is also one of the few hitters to have had success against deGrom.
Over 22 career plate appearances against deGrom, Bellinger has managed four extra-base hits, with two being home runs. In their most recent matchup last week, Bellinger went 1-for-3, including a double.
That double would have been a home run in 19 out of 30 MLB stadiums, according to Statcast, including Yankee Stadium. Additionally, Bellinger homered and singled in three plate appearances versus deGrom in New York last season.
Bellinger has hit 23 home runs in Yankee Stadium since joining the club last season - 16 against right-handed pitchers. Tuesday's game should feature ideal hitting conditions, with temperatures in the 70s. The wind will blow out, albeit more towards left field than right. Still, Bellinger is in a good spot, especially given this price.
Dalton Rushing (+360 at BetMGM)
Let me say that what Dalton Rushing has accomplished thus far in 2026 is not sustainable in the long term. Having said that, we do not need him to continue his ridiculous home run pace for the next five months. We need him to hit one on Tuesday. And I think he has a very good chance of doing so.
The Dodgers announced that Shohei Ohtani will focus only on pitching on Tuesday, so Rushing is expected to be in the lineup. Rushing led off and was the designated hitter last week when Ohtani started, so a similar role is likely.
Houston starting pitcher Peter Lambert throws a change-up, four-seam fastball, cutter and slider to left-handed batters. Rushing is 9-for-25 with four home runs this year against similar pitch mixes from right-handed pitchers.
We often associate the Crawford Boxes in left field with Houston’s Daikin Park, but the Astros' home ballpark actually favors left-handed batters.
According to Statcast's three-year rolling average, Daikin Park ranks second only to Citizens Bank Park for lefty home run factor. This season, six of Rushing's seven home runs have come on the road, and five of those were against right-handed pitchers in just 20 plate appearances.
Houston has three left-handed relievers, but Steven Okert has pitched back-to-back days, and Bennett Sousa has pitched in three out of four. I doubt either will appear on Tuesday, so Rushing should get at least four plate appearances against righties. With the way he has been swinging it, that could mean a souvenir for a lucky fan and money in our pockets.
