It is time for the final Dinger Tuesday in July. Last week, I made a slight profit by hitting on one of my three picks. I would have made even more if I bet CJ Abrams to hit two homers, but I digress. Here are my three favorite bets to go deep on Tuesday, July 28.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kody Clemens (+340)
Sometimes, you have to keep it simple and go with some good old-fashioned batter versus pitcher history. That is the case with my first MLB home run bet for Tuesday. I am taking Kody Clemens in his matchup against Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals.
Lugo has started two games versus Minnesota with Clemens in the lineup. The first time was last summer, and the most recent one was last month. Clemens has gone 4-for-6 with three home runs against Lugo in those meetings. The batted ball data in those six plate appearances might be even more impressive.
The lowest exit velocity on any of Clemens' six plate appearances against Lugo was 99.6 miles per hour. His home runs came against three different pitch types.
Clemens has not hit for much power lately. He only has two home runs in his last 16 games. However, seven of those games were started by left-handed pitchers. Clemens has always been a much greater power threat versus righties and at home. In his career, Clemens has hit 26 home runs in 434 plate appearances against right-handers at Target Field.
Royals' relievers haven't exactly been adept at keeping the ball in the yard, either. Kansas City's bullpen allows the most home runs per nine innings in all of baseball. Even if Lugo manages to navigate Clemens unscathed, we have a good chance to cash this bet. Clemens is 4-for-11 with a home run and two doubles against the current members of Kansas City's relief corps.
Munetaka Murakami (+280)
Munetaka Murakami went more than two weeks without a home run since returning from a six-week absence earlier this month. But he broke out in a big way on Sunday, smacking two home runs against the Houston Astros. I like Murakami to continue that momentum on Tuesday when he faces Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees.
Cole is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. His overall numbers have been solid, but he has had problems keeping the ball in the ballpark. Cole has allowed 11 home runs in 11 starts, including nine to left-handed hitters in just 41.1 innings pitched. He has an 11th percentile barrel rate and ninth percentile ground-ball rate while having a 96th percentile walk rate. These attributes should play right into Murakami's strengths.
Murakami has the highest hard-hit rate in the league and a 99th percentile barrel rate. He has hit 10 home runs in just 99 plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers at home this year. Murakami is the only player in baseball to have double-digit homers in that split in fewer than 122 plate appearances. The rookie has 14 homers in 117 at-bats versus right-handers against the four pitches he is most likely to see from Cole on Tuesday.
This game should also feature favorable hitting conditions. We do not often think of Rate Field on the way we do Wrigley Field when it comes to the wind conditions. However, the winds should be blowing out towards right field on Tuesday night. Murakami doesn't need any help, but he may get it anyway.
Ty France (+520)
I am closing out my home run bets for Wednesday with a player who feels like a longshot based on his current odds. But I think the books are sleeping on Ty France of the San Diego Padres.
France is second on San Diego with 16 home runs this season. However, he has not always received regular playing time. France only has 80 games and 273 plate appearances under his belt this season. We're basically talking about a 30-home run pace without even factoring in the matchup or how scorching hot France has been at the plate lately.
Michael Lorenzen is on the mound for the Colorado Rockies. Lorenzen has given up just as many home runs on the road this season than he has in Coors Field. He has been better at limiting home runs against right-handed hitters, but I am willing to overlook that given France's recent form.
France returned to the lineup on July 10 after missing three games with a minor injury. Since then, he is 21-for-51 with five doubles and six home runs. He is absolutely on fire, and while he has not homered against Lorenzen, he does see the right-hander well.
France is 4-for-14 with two doubles and zero strikeouts in his career against Lorenzen. The pair squared off in one game last season. France got up to bat three times and had three hard-hit balls against Lorenzen. Keep in mind that last season, France's hard-hit rate was in the 54th percentile, while Lorenzen's was in the 61st percentile. This year, France is in the 90th percentile, while Lorenzen is in the fifth percentile.
All told, this is a fantastic matchup for France to go deep, especially at this price. I think anything over +400 is a huge value here.
