We have one more chance at Dinger Tuesday glory before the Major League Baseball All-Star break. I'm banking on hot hitters to keep their recent momentum going at the plate. Here are three of my favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, July 7.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Junior Caminero (+292 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
For my first home run bet for Tuesday, I am taking Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays to continue his torrid pace by taking one deep against Will Warren and the New York Yankees.
Warren has done a decent job limiting home runs this season. He ranks just above league average in home runs allowed, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Even so, Caminero has been virtually unstoppable of late and profiles well against him.
Caminero has 11 home runs in his last 13 games. He also destroys right-handed pitching, particularly at home. He has homered 13 times in just 140 plate appearances at Tropicana Field versus right-handed pitchers this season. Believe it or not, Tropicana Field has the highest home run factor for right-handed hitters this year.
Warren is essentially a three-pitch hurler when facing righties - four-seam fastball, sinker and sweeper. Caminero has done major damage to all three offerings. The Rays third baseman has a .619 slugging rate, including 13 home runs in 139 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
This is an excellent matchup for Caminero. I am betting on him to hit a home run on Tuesday.
James Wood (+280 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
James Wood is seeing the ball really well right now. The Washington Nationals All-Star outfielder has at least one extra-base hit in six of his last seven contests. He has hit four home runs in that span, including a grand slam on Monday. That form makes him a strong candidate to go deep again when he faces Tatsuya Imai and the Houston Astros.
Imai has been like the proverbial box of chocolates lately. In two of his last four starts, he has pitched six innings and recorded double-digit strikeouts. In his other two, he allowed five earned runs and didn't make it out of the second inning. What we do know is that Imai throws a four-seam fastball or a slider over 80% of the time against left-handed hitters. And Wood is arguably the best power hitter in baseball when facing those two pitches from right-handed pitchers.
Wood is 7-for-22 with two doubles and three home runs versus sliders from righties this season. He is also 27-for-71 against four-seam fastballs from right-handers. Wood has a ridiculous 30.6% barrel rate against righties. Overall, he leads MLB with a 22.6% barrel rate. Imai has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate, which puts him in the 13th percentile among all qualified pitchers.
There is some risk that Imai will walk Wood here. Wood is second in the Majors in drawing walks, and Imai's 14% walk rate puts him in the fifth percentile. Still, the matchup is too good for me to ignore. Wood has drawn nine walks in the last seven games and has still gone yard four times. I think he can go deep again on Tuesday.
Manny Machado (+475 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Finally, I am betting on Manny Machado to hit a home run against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Machado has had a tough time at the plate this season, particularly with his batting average. However, his power stroke is alive and well. The veteran is on pace for 32 home runs this season. That would tie for the most homers he has had in a season since joining the San Diego Padres in 2019. Machado has six home runs and six doubles over his last 19 games.
Machado has had decent success against Gallen in his career - 8-for-31 with two doubles and a home run. But there is more to like about this matchup. Machado's batted ball metrics against Gallen suggest an expected slugging rate of .755 in their head-to-head meetings. That is significantly higher than his actual .419 slugging rate versus Gallen. Machado is also 6-for-19 with four home runs since the middle of June versus sliders and four-seam fastballs from right-handed pitchers. Gallen throws those two pitches nearly 70% of the time versus righties.
Gallen's falloff this season has been much more precipitous than Machado's. Gallen has a 6.36 ERA and 6.32 expected ERA in 92 innings this year. Both are the highest marks among 61 pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched. No other pitcher in that group has an ERA over 5.87 or an xERA over 5.60. When facing right-handed hitters on the road, Gallen has given up seven doubles and six home runs in just 19 innings.
Because of these factors, I expect Machado to get the best of this matchup and cash our final home run bet of the evening.
