With less than a week to go before the Home Run Derby as part of the All-Star Game festivities, my MLB home run props take a long look at some sluggers who have been hot at the plate lately.
Today’s best home run props feature one of the biggest names surely to surface at the trade deadline, and includes two value plays on sluggers from both leagues who have homered in small sample sizes off today’s opposing pitchers.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Rafael Devers (+500)
Rafael Devers has slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and two total extra-base hits in 12 at-bats against Dylan Cease.
Just three games ago, Devers turned in his 23rd career two-homer game, and second this season. At that time, he was batting .364 with five home runs and nine RBI during a nine-game hitting streak, and had a .311/.367/.800, with seven home runs and 11 RBI in a 12-game span.
Cease has allowed just one home run in 93 opponent plate appearances at Oracle Park. However, Devers is in a great hitting split, with 15 of his 18 home runs coming off right-handed pitchers, and his OPS being 346 points better in that split than against southpaws.
Spencer Torkelson (+354)
The Athletics are coming off a series where they allowed 12 home runs to the Marlins in three games played. That was Miami’s most in any three-game span in franchise history. While the dimensions of Comerica Park are much different than Sutter Health Park where all those home runs were surrendered, there are still big questions surrounding the Athletics pitching staff in any ballpark.
Jeffrey Springs allowed a whopping 12 home runs in 27 innings spanning six starts in June. In fact, he has allowed multiple home runs in six of his last eight starts. Eighteen of Springs’ 24 home runs allowed have come against right-handed batters, and Torkelson took him deep in his lone hit in the four at-bat sample size.
Torkelson has hit 13 of his 14 homers against righties in a curious reverse split, but his OPS is 125 points better against southpaws, and this is a great matchup to take advantage of.
Kyle Karros (+630)
The Rockies take aim at Dodgers righty Roki Sasaki, who allowed a career-high seven extra-base hits in his last start. Sasaki has not pitched well for awhile, with a 10.06 ERA over his last four outings.
Kyle Karros had a big RBI double in the ninth inning of Monday’s series opener, and he is 2-for-2 with a home run in a small sample size against Sasaki. Karros has hit safely in seven of nine games, and has homered at least once in each of the team’s last three series played. He isn’t solely reliant on Coors Field-inflated statistics, as three of his seven home runs have come on the road.
Karros has a solid 44% hard-hit rate in his first full season (ranks in the top-third of the league), and should add more home runs to his total if he keeps up his 96th percentile launch angle sweet spot percentage.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.